2026 NFL Week 7 Preview: Tale of the Tape for Every Game

New England’s defense tests Chicago’s rushing attack on Thursday, Green Bay gets a promising passing matchup against Detroit, and Kansas City brings a balanced offense to Seattle. Pittsburgh and New Orleans meet in France, while Dallas–Philadelphia closes the fourteen-game slate on Monday.

These paths to victory are my opinions based on the team statistics. I have not built a game-prediction model, so these are not projected scores, probabilities or model picks. The numbers describe performance so far; injuries, lineup changes and weather are not incorporated.

Reading the tale of the tape

Use Unit, Category and Measure to switch the vertical charts between offense and defense, scoring and yardage, and per-game or adjusted comparisons. Hover over a bar or focus it with the keyboard for its exact value. Records and ranks remain above the chart; expand View all matchup data for the full table. Each chart uses its own scale, shared by the two teams.

Points and yardage are per-game values. Rushing and passing averages divide source team totals by games played; total yards combine the two. Adjusted values measure per-game differences from an opponent benchmark. Higher adjusted values are better for both offense and defense: positive offense means producing above the benchmark, while positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points and yards allowed are better on defense. Derived adjusted total yards add the displayed adjusted rushing and passing figures; rounding can affect the last decimal.

Matchups and Eastern kickoff times were checked October 22 against the Week 7 schedule. Pittsburgh–New Orleans is at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, in the Paris area, with New Orleans the designated home team. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the LA Chargers and Washington are on bye. There are no Saturday games; the slate runs Thursday through Monday. Times remain subject to schedule changes.

New England at Chicago

Thursday, October 22 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Chicago’s +62.79 adjusted rushing offense meets a New England run defense at +18.13. The Patriots are positive in both offensive yardage phases, while their +7.73 adjusted scoring defense is the strongest unit-level scoring figure in this matchup.

How New England can win: Keep Chicago from setting the pace on the ground and make the Bears sustain passing drives. New England can use its +26.67 adjusted passing offense against a Chicago pass defense closer to the benchmark (+4.91). Touchdown finishes would let the Patriots turn their defensive strength into control of the game.

How Chicago can win: Keep the run central without becoming predictable against a positive run defense. Chicago’s +19.43 adjusted passing gives it an alternative when New England loads up against the ground game. The Bears also need to limit easy completions so the Patriots cannot repeatedly extend possessions through the air.

Pittsburgh at New Orleans

Sunday, October 25 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Paris area, Stade de France, Saint-Denis (New Orleans designated home team)

Pittsburgh’s adjusted offense is close to the benchmark in both rushing and passing. New Orleans offers openings in both phases and allows 29.67 points per game. The Saints score more than the Steelers, but they also ask considerably more of their offense.

How Pittsburgh can win: Test the Saints’ −23.29 adjusted run defense and use manageable downs to attack their −17.35 pass defense. Pittsburgh does not need to force a big-play approach to exploit those weaknesses. Its own positive run defense should try to make New Orleans depend on a passing offense slightly below benchmark.

How New Orleans can win: Turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns while preventing Pittsburgh from controlling possession through the run. New Orleans’s own −13.02 adjusted rushing faces a +15.46 run defense, so I would favor selective early-down passing over repeatedly forcing that matchup. The defense needs stops that give the offense room for an imperfect drive.

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Cincinnati’s +31.54 adjusted passing offense meets Baltimore’s −9.80 pass defense. Baltimore has the opposite opportunity on the ground: +36.13 adjusted rushing against Cincinnati’s −16.20 run defense. Each offense has a clear area to test.

How Cincinnati can win: Use the passing game to pressure Baltimore’s coverage, but do enough against the run to keep the Ravens from controlling the pace. Cincinnati’s below-benchmark rushing offense makes an air-led approach more convincing. The Bengals need touchdowns from that advantage rather than letting long Baltimore possessions dictate the game.

How Baltimore can win: Run efficiently and make Cincinnati prove it can close the rushing lanes. Baltimore’s −16.33 adjusted passing suggests avoiding unnecessary long-yardage situations. Its coverage must also prevent the Bengals from answering sustained drives with quick passing scores; one strong offensive phase will not cover every defensive mistake.

Cleveland at Tennessee

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Cleveland averages 17.67 points and Tennessee 14.00. The Browns’ +4.13 adjusted scoring defense is a substantial advantage against a Titans offense below benchmark in both yardage phases. Tennessee’s run defense is the more inviting target for Cleveland.

How Cleveland can win: Run at Tennessee’s −21.13 adjusted run defense to reduce the burden on a passing offense at −56.49. Cleveland’s own rushing output is −8.51, so the matchup still requires better execution. The defense should force Tennessee to sustain drives against units that are positive against both the run and pass.

How Tennessee can win: Contain the ground game well enough to force Cleveland to pass, then turn the best offensive opportunities into touchdowns. Tennessee’s −76.73 adjusted passing faces a +19.87 Browns pass defense, making a passing comeback especially difficult. Avoiding wasted possessions and keeping the game close are essential to giving the offense a manageable task.

Indianapolis at Minnesota

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Minnesota returns from its bye allowing 12.80 points per game, with positive adjusted defense in scoring, rushing and passing. Indianapolis has a +14.36 rushing offense but a −30.73 passing offense. The Colts need to move the ball against a defense without an obvious weak phase.

How Indianapolis can win: Create manageable downs with the run and avoid asking the passing game to repeatedly overcome long-yardage situations. Indianapolis must also improve its −6.28 adjusted run defense so Minnesota cannot hide its own struggling passing offense. Touchdown finishes matter against a defense that has allowed so few points.

How Minnesota can win: Run at the Colts’ weaker rushing defense and make Indianapolis’s offense earn every possession. Minnesota’s −60.79 adjusted passing makes a rushing-led approach more attractive, even though the Colts’ coverage is also below benchmark. The Vikings should use selective passes to complement the run rather than assume the defense can compensate for every stalled drive.

Miami at NY Jets

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Miami’s +28.01 adjusted rushing offense faces a Jets run defense at −19.30. That is the Dolphins’ clearest opportunity: their passing offense is −71.89 against New York’s +47.67 pass defense. The Jets also need improvement from an offense scoring 18.67 points per game.

How Miami can win: Build around the run and keep the passing game out of obvious catch-up situations. Miami needs touchdown finishes from its rushing advantage, not merely longer possessions. On defense, make the Jets sustain drives and avoid supplying easy scoring chances to another offense below benchmark in both yardage phases.

How NY Jets can win: Stop Miami’s run well enough to force the Dolphins into the strongest part of the Jets’ defense. New York’s own passing offense is −32.22 against Miami’s positive coverage, so patient, balanced possessions are preferable to depending on a shootout. The Jets need to reward their defense with points when opportunities arrive.

NY Giants at Houston

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Houston’s −36.92 adjusted rushing offense meets the Giants’ −44.53 run defense. That is an opportunity for improvement, not an established offensive strength. The Giants have the more inviting passing matchup: +5.90 on offense against Houston’s −23.72 pass defense.

How NY Giants can win: Use efficient passing to test Houston’s coverage rather than forcing a below-benchmark ground game into a +23.34 run defense. New York also needs to close its own rushing lanes so Houston cannot escape a weakness that has limited its offense. Making the Texans throw into the Giants’ +40.70 pass defense would change the matchup.

How Houston can win: Test the Giants on the ground and use any progress to make the passing assignment easier. Houston’s +32.43 adjusted passing is productive, but New York’s coverage is strong too. The Texans must also limit easy completions on defense so the Giants cannot consistently exploit the weaker part of Houston’s profile.

San Francisco at Atlanta

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

San Francisco’s +42.83 adjusted passing meets Atlanta’s −11.35 pass defense. Atlanta’s +43.87 rushing offense is its best response, although the 49ers’ run defense is positive at +22.42. The Falcons need their strongest offensive phase to hold up against real resistance.

How San Francisco can win: Use the passing advantage rather than repeatedly challenging Atlanta’s +36.00 adjusted run defense. San Francisco can remain balanced while making coverage the central test. Its defense should contain Atlanta’s rushing attack and force a passing offense at −23.28 to carry more possessions.

How Atlanta can win: Run efficiently enough to create manageable downs, then take selective passing opportunities against San Francisco’s slightly negative pass defense. Atlanta cannot count on the ground game alone against a strong run defense. Its own coverage must prevent the 49ers from turning routine completions into quick scores.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Sunday, October 25 · 1 p.m. ET

Carolina scores 29.20 points per game to Tampa Bay’s 19.83. Tampa Bay’s +15.02 adjusted rushing faces Carolina’s −13.83 run defense, giving the Buccaneers a way to keep the assignment manageable. Carolina’s passing offense remains the stronger offensive weapon overall.

How Tampa Bay can win: Use the run to create sustained possessions and avoid leaning on a passing offense at −48.31. Tampa Bay must finish those drives with touchdowns to keep pace. Defensively, deny the explosive gains from Carolina’s +64.31 adjusted passing and force the Panthers to repeatedly execute in scoring territory.

How Carolina can win: Lean on the passing game while recognizing that Tampa Bay’s coverage is slightly positive after adjustment. Carolina also needs stronger run defense so the Buccaneers cannot control the game through their best offensive phase. A lead would force Tampa Bay to rely more heavily on its struggling passing game.

Denver at Arizona

Sunday, October 25 · 4:05 p.m. ET

Denver averages just 252.17 yards per game, but its +4.04 adjusted scoring defense has provided support. Arizona allows 29.67 points, while its +10.41 adjusted pass defense suggests the weakness is not simply every passing matchup. Denver needs more reliable offense, not just a favorable opponent on paper.

How Denver can win: Test Arizona’s −8.20 adjusted run defense to reduce the load on a passing offense at −42.32. Denver must convert its best possessions into touchdowns. On defense, contain Arizona’s run and make the Cardinals challenge the Broncos’ +32.36 adjusted pass defense.

How Arizona can win: Run at Denver’s −20.38 adjusted run defense enough to establish manageable downs. Arizona’s own rushing offense is −20.72, so that opportunity requires improvement. The Cardinals’ coverage must make Denver earn passing gains and prevent a struggling Broncos offense from finding easy touchdown drives.

Green Bay at Detroit

Sunday, October 25 · 4:25 p.m. ET

Green Bay’s +68.96 adjusted passing offense faces Detroit’s −77.32 pass defense. Detroit can answer with a 32.80-point scoring average and +58.44 adjusted passing. The difference is on defense: Green Bay is positive in both yardage phases, while Detroit has a pronounced coverage problem.

How Green Bay can win: Build around the passing matchup instead of relying on a rushing offense at −50.09. Green Bay must turn that advantage into touchdowns rather than another modest scoring total. Its defense should make Detroit sustain drives and avoid giving back the passing gains the Packers have an opportunity to create.

How Detroit can win: Keep Green Bay’s completions in front of the defense and force difficult finishes near the goal line. Detroit needs its own passing attack to remain productive against a positive Packers pass defense. A ground game below benchmark is unlikely to solve everything, so efficient passing and a few additional stops are central to the Lions’ path.

LA Rams at Las Vegas

Sunday, October 25 · 4:25 p.m. ET

The Rams average 401.33 yards but only 22.50 points per game. Their +72.70 adjusted passing faces Las Vegas’s −28.20 pass defense. The Raiders’ own passing offense is productive, but it meets a Rams pass defense at +51.30.

How LA Rams can win: Convert the passing matchup into touchdowns, correcting the gap between yardage and scoring. Los Angeles should also contain the Raiders’ ground game so Las Vegas cannot avoid the Rams’ stronger coverage unit. Allowing a below-benchmark rushing offense to control possession would waste a favorable passing matchup.

How Las Vegas can win: Test the Rams’ −23.50 adjusted run defense, while recognizing Las Vegas’s own rushing offense is −35.79. Any success would make the passing assignment against strong coverage easier. The Raiders must also reduce easy passing gains allowed; relying on their offense to answer every Rams drive is a difficult proposition.

Kansas City at Seattle

Sunday, October 25 · 8:20 p.m. ET

Kansas City is positive in both offensive yardage phases, while Seattle allows just 237.33 yards per game. Seattle’s +76.23 adjusted pass defense presents a major test. The Seahawks’ own passing offense has a more inviting target in Kansas City’s −32.46 pass defense.

How Kansas City can win: Keep both offensive phases involved and make Seattle defend the run as well as the pass. The Chiefs’ +40.07 adjusted rushing provides an alternative when the coverage closes passing windows, though Seattle’s run defense is strong too. Kansas City must limit easy completions on defense so Seattle cannot exploit its clearest weakness.

How Seattle can win: Use efficient passing against Kansas City’s coverage and make those gains count on the scoreboard. Seattle’s own passing output is only +6.57, so the matchup still needs execution. Defensively, prevent the Chiefs from establishing the run and make them repeatedly test the Seahawks’ stronger pass defense.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Monday, October 26 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Dallas’s +57.03 adjusted passing meets Philadelphia’s −13.16 pass defense. The Eagles have a possible answer on the ground against Dallas’s −49.00 run defense, but their own rushing offense is −31.18. This is a chance to repair an offensive weakness, not evidence that it is already fixed.

How Dallas can win: Attack through the air and turn passing production into touchdowns against Philadelphia’s coverage. Dallas also needs to close its rushing lanes so the Eagles cannot shelter a passing offense at −62.12. Making Philadelphia chase points through the air would put the Cowboys’ offensive strength in a better position to matter.

How Philadelphia can win: Test Dallas on the ground and use manageable downs to reduce the pressure on the passing game. Philadelphia must also keep the Cowboys from producing quick scores, because its 17.67-point offense is poorly equipped for a passing race. Sustained touchdown drives and improved coverage are both needed to make the rushing opportunity count.

Ratings and statistical sources

These comparisons use my Power ratings, Elo ratings, offense statistics and defense statistics, updated October 20 through Week 6. Those pages update during the season; this preview preserves their Week 6 snapshot.