2026 NFL Week 4 Preview: Tale of the Tape for Every Game

Kansas City and Las Vegas put unbeaten records on the line, Denver visits San Francisco in a meeting of my second- and third-ranked teams, and Detroit–Carolina offers two productive offenses a chance to attack vulnerable defenses. Here is my first weekly look ahead, covering the full Week 4 slate from Thursday through Monday.

I have not built a game-prediction model yet. The paths to victory below are my interpretation of the team statistics, not model-generated picks, win probabilities or projected scores. With just three games played, these profiles are still taking shape. This is a statistical matchup preview; injuries, lineup changes and weather are not incorporated.

Reading the tale of the tape

Use the Unit, Category and Measure controls in each matchup to switch between offense and defense, scoring and yardage, and per-game or adjusted comparisons. Record, Power rank and Elo rank stay visible above the chart. Expand “View all matchup data” for the complete table. Each chart uses its own scale, shared by the two teams.

All records and statistics are frozen through Week 3, from my September 29, 2026 ratings update. Power and Elo ranks show each team’s position in those separate rating systems; a lower rank is better. Elo carries information forward from the previous season.

Points and all yardage figures are shown as per-game averages. Total yards combine rushing and passing. Per-game yardage uses the team totals in the source tables divided by games played. Adjusted values are per-game differences from an opponent benchmark, not adjusted season totals or predicted production. Higher adjusted values are better on both sides of the ball: positive offense means producing more than the benchmark; positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points and yards allowed are better on defense.

For example, a +10.00 adjusted defensive passing figure means holding opponents 10 passing yards per game below their benchmark. It does not mean allowing 10 yards. Adjusted total yards below are derived by adding the displayed adjusted rushing and passing values; rounding can affect the last decimal.

Matchups and Eastern kickoff times were checked October 1 against the Week 4 schedule. The NFL confirms the London game. Times remain subject to schedule changes. All 32 teams play this week.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Thursday, October 1 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Cleveland has the stronger power rating, but neither offense has produced like a contender. The most useful opening for Pittsburgh is on the ground: its +17.67 adjusted rushing meets a Cleveland run defense at −25.17.

How Pittsburgh can win: Build the offense around that rushing matchup and avoid making an inefficient passing game carry the night. With only 17.67 points per game, Pittsburgh needs sustained possessions to end in touchdowns; a yardage advantage alone will not be enough.

How Cleveland can win: Make Pittsburgh throw on obvious passing downs, then get more out of an offense averaging just 266 yards. Cleveland’s −48.83 adjusted rushing faces a positive Pittsburgh run defense, so I would look for efficient early-down passes rather than repeatedly forcing the run.

Indianapolis at Washington

Sunday, October 4 · 9:30 a.m. ET · London, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (Washington designated home team)

Both defenses have allowed more than 30 points per game. Their adjusted pass-defense figures, −46.17 for Indianapolis and −73.33 for Washington, make this a test of which passing offense can exploit an inviting opponent.

How Indianapolis can win: Attack Washington through the air without letting its +30.00 adjusted run defense dictate long third downs. Indianapolis has been below its opponents’ benchmark in passing, so improvement there is essential. Its own defense must prevent ordinary completions from becoming long gains.

How Washington can win: Use the passing game to pressure an Indianapolis defense allowing 417.33 yards per game. Washington’s run defense is its clearest statistical strength; if it makes the Colts one-dimensional and improves its coverage enough to finish possessions, that gives the Commanders a workable route.

Arizona at NY Giants

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

The Giants have the better record, but Arizona has the healthier scoring profile after adjustment: +2.17 on offense against New York’s −11.00. New York’s defense is the counterweight, with positive adjusted numbers in scoring, rushing and passing.

How Arizona can win: Let the passing game, at +24.00 adjusted yards, create the scoring opportunities. Arizona also needs to close its defensive weakness against the run; giving a struggling Giants offense manageable second and third downs would erase much of its offensive advantage.

How NY Giants can win: Keep Arizona from turning its passing advantage into explosive scores, then test a Cardinals run defense at −16.33 adjusted yards. New York has averaged only 15.33 points, so the defense cannot be asked to rescue every stalled drive. A modest offensive improvement could matter a great deal here.

Dallas at Houston

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Dallas has scored 29.33 points per game; Houston has scored 18.00. Yet Houston’s adjusted scoring defense is +4.67 and Dallas’s is −5.50. This is a chance for Houston’s defense to give its offense a more manageable assignment.

How Dallas can win: Find production through the air against Houston’s −23.67 adjusted pass defense, rather than relying on a rushing attack facing a +44.83 run defense. Above all, fix the run fits: Dallas has surrendered 539 rushing yards in three games.

How Houston can win: Test Dallas on the ground early. Houston’s own −45.00 adjusted rushing means success is no guarantee, but the Cowboys’ −60.67 run defense offers an opportunity to get ahead of the chains. Houston must turn those easier situations into points while its defense limits Dallas’s scoring efficiency.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Green Bay’s passing game is the strongest matchup-specific asset here: +66.00 adjusted passing yards against Tampa Bay’s −36.33 pass defense. Both teams need substantial improvement in scoring defense.

How Green Bay can win: Use the pass to create the lead instead of leaning on a rushing attack at −37.33 adjusted yards. The Packers also need to make Tampa Bay sustain drives; Green Bay’s −14.50 adjusted scoring defense is too large a burden for an offense scoring 18.67 per game.

How Tampa Bay can win: Keep Green Bay’s passing gains in front of the defense and make it earn touchdowns over several plays. On offense, attack the Packers’ negative rushing and passing defensive ratings, but avoid assuming the matchup fixes everything: Tampa Bay’s adjusted passing output is −81.50.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Jacksonville’s 12.00 points allowed per game stands out, but its −68.50 adjusted pass defense offers Cincinnati a possible way in. Conversely, Cincinnati’s pass defense is −73.00, giving Jacksonville a chance to improve its own below-benchmark passing output.

How Jacksonville can win: Convert Cincinnati’s coverage weakness into more consistent passing production while preserving the scoring defense that has carried the early results. The Jaguars should be wary of treating low points allowed as proof that the passing defense has been airtight.

How Cincinnati can win: Lean into the +29.00 adjusted passing offense and force Jacksonville to defend the whole field. Cincinnati needs touchdowns from those passing opportunities, and its defense must reduce the easy gains that could let Jacksonville control the game without stretching its offense.

LA Rams at Philadelphia

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

The Rams’ 1–2 record hides a 417.67-yard offense and a 272.67-yard defense. Philadelphia is 2–1, but trails in both power rating and offensive production. The question for Los Angeles is how to turn that yardage profile into a better scoreboard.

How LA Rams can win: Finish drives. A +91.50 adjusted passing offense against Philadelphia’s −7.17 pass defense is an inviting matchup, but 20.33 points per game has not matched the Rams’ yardage. Keeping empty possessions to a minimum is the most direct path to making the underlying numbers count.

How Philadelphia can win: Deny the explosive passes and force the Rams to execute repeatedly near the goal line. Philadelphia also needs offensive patience: its −50.67 adjusted passing faces a Rams pass defense at +48.00. Creating manageable downs with a balanced attack is more plausible than depending on a passing shootout.

New England at Buffalo

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Buffalo leads this pair by a wide margin in scoring, 33.67 to 12.00 per game. New England’s +9.50 adjusted scoring defense makes the matchup more interesting than those offensive averages suggest, and the Elo ratings are relatively close.

How New England can win: Turn defensive resistance into an offense that actually scores. Buffalo’s −39.17 adjusted pass defense gives New England a target, while its own +79.67 pass defense can help contain the Bills. The Patriots cannot waste a strong defensive performance with another 12-point outing.

How Buffalo can win: Run efficiently against New England’s −4.50 adjusted run defense and avoid letting the Patriots’ stronger pass defense control the game. Buffalo’s +72.33 adjusted rushing is a natural starting point. The Bills also need to make New England earn long drives instead of helping a struggling offense with easy passing yards.

NY Jets at Chicago

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Chicago’s +12.33 adjusted scoring offense and +9.33 scoring defense give it a strong two-way profile. The Jets’ best response is their +80.17 adjusted pass defense, but that does not directly solve the Bears’ +73.33 rushing advantage over their opponents’ benchmark.

How NY Jets can win: Make Chicago win through the part of the defense that has performed best: pass coverage. That requires containing the run first. On offense, the Bears’ −21.00 adjusted run defense offers a target, though New York’s own −52.67 rushing figure shows how much execution must improve.

How Chicago can win: Keep the running game central and avoid needlessly challenging the Jets’ strongest defensive unit. Chicago must also tighten its run defense so an inefficient New York offense cannot shorten the game with sustained possessions. The Bears have the production to take control if they stay on schedule.

Tennessee at Baltimore

Sunday, October 4 · 1 p.m. ET

Tennessee has scored only 37 points in three games. Baltimore has scored 92, and its +26.17 adjusted rushing offense meets a Titans run defense at −28.83. That is the matchup Tennessee most urgently needs to change.

How Tennessee can win: Contain the run without giving away easy throws, and get enough offense to avoid a game spent chasing Baltimore. The Ravens’ −8.00 adjusted run defense offers a possible entry point, but Tennessee must improve on its own −24.00 rushing performance to use it.

How Baltimore can win: Build around the ground game and force Tennessee’s struggling offense to respond with points. Baltimore’s +29.17 adjusted pass defense should make a passing comeback difficult. The Ravens still need to finish drives and avoid handing Tennessee short fields that bypass that advantage.

Miami at Minnesota

Sunday, October 4 · 4:05 p.m. ET

Minnesota is unbeaten despite averaging only 238.33 yards. Its +14.00 adjusted scoring defense explains much of that start. Miami’s 0–3 record and 28.67 points allowed look worse than its positive adjusted defensive numbers, after a difficult opening schedule.

How Miami can win: Keep the game close with a defense that has positive adjusted figures against both the run and pass. Then turn enough possessions into touchdowns to exceed its 12.00-point scoring average. Minnesota’s −13.33 adjusted pass defense is a more promising target than its +35.17 run defense.

How Minnesota can win: Continue forcing Miami to work for every scoring chance, but find more reliable offensive production. Minnesota’s −102.33 adjusted passing output is a concern against Miami’s +22.33 pass defense. I would prioritize manageable downs and ball security while looking for selective passing gains, rather than assuming the defense can carry another low-yardage outing.

Denver at San Francisco

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET

This is second against third in the power rankings. The offenses tell a less even story: San Francisco averages 399.33 yards and 32.67 points, compared with Denver’s 275.00 yards and 20.00 points.

How Denver can win: Reduce San Francisco’s early-down success and make it settle for field goals. Denver needs more sustained offense, but its −24.67 adjusted rushing meets a positive 49ers run defense. Efficient passing and a few extended possessions look more useful than trying to match San Francisco score for score.

How San Francisco can win: Use its positive adjusted rushing and passing production to keep Denver from concentrating on one threat. Denver’s −12.33 adjusted run defense is the more inviting side to test first. San Francisco’s defense can then force a below-benchmark Denver offense into a game that requires more passing.

Kansas City at Las Vegas

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET

Both teams are 3–0 and have scored 88 points, but Kansas City averages 416.33 yards to Las Vegas’s 311.67. The Chiefs also lead the power ratings. Las Vegas’s +34.17 adjusted pass defense is an important obstacle to turning that production advantage into a win.

How Kansas City can win: Use the ground game against a Raiders run defense at −18.17 adjusted yards. Kansas City’s +35.33 rushing gives it a way to create favorable downs without constantly testing Las Vegas’s coverage strength. Make the Raiders sustain offense rather than giving them short scoring opportunities.

How Las Vegas can win: Keep Kansas City from controlling the game on the ground and make its passing offense earn difficult completions. On offense, test the Chiefs’ −8.17 adjusted run defense, but recognize that Las Vegas’s own rushing output is −24.67. The Raiders need more consistent movement to avoid relying solely on their early scoring efficiency.

LA Chargers at Seattle

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET

Seattle allows just 228.67 yards per game and has positive adjusted defense in every category. The Chargers’ +4.00 adjusted scoring defense has been respectable, but their offense is at −13.50. Sustaining offense against Seattle is the central problem.

How LA Chargers can win: Keep Seattle’s passing gains contained and give the offense enough possessions to find points. Seattle’s +82.33 adjusted pass defense makes a dropback-heavy chase especially unappealing. Los Angeles needs manageable downs, disciplined possession football and touchdowns when opportunities do arrive.

How Seattle can win: Make the Chargers drive the field against a defense that has allowed little in either phase. Seattle’s +57.67 adjusted passing offense can attack Los Angeles’s −15.33 pass defense. The Seahawks should turn that matchup into points early and make the Chargers lean on their weakest unit.

Detroit at Carolina

Sunday, October 4 · 8:20 p.m. ET

Two productive offenses meet two vulnerable scoring defenses. Carolina’s +96.50 adjusted passing faces Detroit’s −66.67 pass defense; Detroit’s +19.50 rushing faces Carolina’s −67.50 run defense. Each offense has a clear place to apply pressure.

How Detroit can win: Attack Carolina on the ground and finish those possessions with touchdowns. Detroit also needs to keep Carolina’s passing attack from producing quick scores; a long offensive drive provides little benefit if the defense immediately gives the points back. One or two extra stops could be decisive.

How Carolina can win: Use the passing game to test Detroit’s coverage from the outset, while doing enough against the run to keep Detroit from setting the pace. Carolina’s +26.33 adjusted pass defense is its better unit, so forcing the Lions away from their obvious rushing opportunity would change the matchup substantially.

Atlanta at New Orleans

Monday, October 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Atlanta has rushed for 519 yards but scored only 51 points. New Orleans has a more productive passing profile, +64.00 adjusted yards, against Atlanta’s −9.50 pass defense. The Falcons must make their ground production count on the scoreboard.

How Atlanta can win: Run efficiently, then turn favorable downs into touchdowns instead of more empty yardage. Atlanta’s +49.17 adjusted run defense can make the Saints rely on passing, but the coverage must hold up when that happens. The Falcons need both better finishing and fewer easy completions allowed.

How New Orleans can win: Lean on the passing matchup rather than forcing a −17.33 adjusted rushing offense into Atlanta’s strongest defensive unit. New Orleans also has to contain the Falcons’ ground game without overcommitting. Making Atlanta rely on its −32.00 adjusted passing offense would put the Saints in a much better position.

Ratings and statistical sources

These comparisons use my power ratings, Elo ratings, offense statistics and defense statistics. Those pages update during the season; the tables in this preview preserve the Week 3 snapshot. For the broader context at publication, see the Week 3 rankings post.