2026 NFL Week 6 Preview: Team Comparisons for Every Game

Seattle’s defense tests Denver on Thursday, Houston gets a chance to challenge Jacksonville’s passing coverage in London, and Buffalo’s rushing attack meets a vulnerable Las Vegas defense. Those are three of the matchups I am watching across this week’s fourteen games. Kansas City and Carolina return from their byes with strong offensive profiles, while Chicago–Atlanta offers a meeting of two productive rushing attacks.

The paths to victory below are my opinions based on the team statistics, not projected scores or model-generated win probabilities. I have not built a game-prediction model yet. These early-season profiles can still change considerably, and injuries, lineup changes and weather are not incorporated.

Reading the team comparisons

All records, ranks and statistics are frozen through Week 5, from the October 13, 2026, 9:13 a.m. source update. Power and Elo ranks show league position, with lower ranks better. Elo carries information forward from the previous season. Kansas City and Carolina have played one fewer game following their byes; the per-game figures account for that difference.

Points and yardage are shown per game. Rushing and passing averages divide source team totals by games played, and total yards combine rushing and passing. Adjusted values measure per-game differences from an opponent benchmark. Higher adjusted values are better on offense and defense: positive offense means producing above that benchmark; positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points and yards allowed are better on defense. Derived adjusted total yards add the displayed adjusted rushing and passing values, so rounding can affect the last decimal.

Matchups and Eastern kickoff times were checked October 15 against the Week 6 schedule. Houston–Jacksonville is at Wembley Stadium in London, with Jacksonville the designated home team. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye. There are no Saturday games; the full slate runs Thursday through Monday. Times remain subject to schedule changes.

Seattle at Denver

Thursday, October 15 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Seattle allows just 251.20 yards per game, while Denver produces 269.00. The Broncos’ +43.28 adjusted pass defense is a reason to expect resistance, but Seattle’s own pass defense is stronger still at +72.40.

How Seattle can win: Test Denver on the ground, where its adjusted defense is −19.95, rather than repeatedly challenging the Broncos’ better coverage unit. Seattle’s rushing offense is only +0.25, so that opportunity still needs execution. Defensively, force Denver to sustain possessions against a unit that has performed well in both phases.

How Denver can win: Keep Seattle’s running game contained and make the Seahawks earn difficult passing completions. Denver needs more than its usual 19.40 points, but a −33.48 adjusted passing offense against Seattle’s coverage is a tough assignment. Manageable downs and touchdown finishes on the few promising drives are essential.

Houston at Jacksonville

Sunday, October 18 · 9:30 a.m. ET · London, Wembley Stadium (Jacksonville designated home team)

Jacksonville allows only 14.00 points per game despite a −73.30 adjusted pass defense. Houston’s +27.15 passing offense gives it a way to challenge that scoring efficiency. The Texans’ −62.20 rushing offense faces a Jaguars run defense at +40.75.

How Houston can win: Build around the passing matchup rather than forcing an ineffective run game into Jacksonville’s strongest defensive unit. Houston must turn passing gains into touchdowns; the Jaguars have conceded yards without giving away many points. On defense, limit Jacksonville’s improving passing production and make it work through long possessions.

How Jacksonville can win: Keep Houston from converting coverage openings into quick scores, and continue winning possessions near the goal line. Jacksonville should test Houston’s −11.35 adjusted pass defense rather than leaning heavily on a below-benchmark rushing attack against a +28.45 run defense. The low points allowed will be harder to maintain if the coverage keeps conceding easy progress.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

Baltimore’s +45.10 adjusted rushing meets Cleveland’s −9.92 run defense. Cleveland averages only 18.60 points and has a −57.52 adjusted passing offense, so keeping Baltimore from controlling the ground game is the starting point.

How Baltimore can win: Use the running game to create favorable downs and avoid asking a slightly below-benchmark passing offense to carry every possession. Baltimore also needs to improve its −14.10 adjusted pass defense; helping Cleveland find easy completions would give a struggling offense a route back into the game.

How Cleveland can win: Contain the run well enough to force Baltimore into passing situations, then attack the Ravens’ coverage with efficient early-down throws. Cleveland’s own passing numbers make that a requirement for improvement, not a proven advantage. The Browns need touchdown finishes to avoid falling behind an offense scoring 29.20 per game.

Carolina at Philadelphia

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

Carolina comes off its bye with a +71.00 adjusted passing offense against Philadelphia’s −23.75 pass defense. The Eagles’ offense is at −64.55 in passing, but Carolina’s defense has weaknesses in both phases. That leaves Philadelphia a possible path to a more productive afternoon.

How Carolina can win: Attack through the air and make the Eagles’ coverage handle repeated scoring threats. Carolina’s 30.25-point average gives it a clear offensive starting point, but its −24.25 adjusted run defense must improve. Letting Philadelphia control manageable downs would reduce the pressure on the Eagles’ struggling passing game.

How Philadelphia can win: Run at Carolina’s weakest defensive area, then use those easier situations to improve the passing efficiency. Philadelphia’s own rushing offense is −9.90 after adjustment, so success is not automatic. The defense needs to deny explosive passes and make Carolina finish drives over several plays rather than immediately trading scores.

Chicago at Atlanta

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

Chicago’s +67.07 adjusted rushing meets Atlanta’s +28.43 run defense. Atlanta also has a strong rushing offense (+48.93), facing a Chicago run defense just below benchmark at −3.72. Both teams have reasons to start on the ground, but the defensive resistance differs.

How Chicago can win: Keep the run involved without becoming predictable against Atlanta’s strongest defensive unit. Chicago’s +24.87 adjusted passing gives it an alternative when the Falcons crowd the ground game. The Bears’ defense needs to force Atlanta into passing downs, where the Falcons remain at −25.03 after adjustment.

How Atlanta can win: Use the rushing attack to create favorable situations and limit how often the passing game must rescue a possession. Atlanta must also make Chicago earn its rushing yards; if that works, the Falcons can challenge the Bears to sustain passing drives. Finishing with touchdowns matters when both teams average 23.80 points.

New Orleans at NY Giants

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

New Orleans has a −26.85 adjusted rushing offense, but the Giants’ run defense is −31.45. New York’s rushing offense is also below benchmark against a Saints run defense at −25.15. Each side has an inviting matchup that its own offensive performance has not yet earned the right to take for granted.

How New Orleans can win: Test the Giants on the ground and use any success to avoid obvious passing downs against a +35.35 adjusted pass defense. New Orleans also needs far better defensive finishing: allowing 30.20 points per game creates too much pressure on its offense. Make New York sustain drives instead of supplying easy rushing progress.

How NY Giants can win: Attack New Orleans’s run defense enough to give the passing game manageable situations. The Giants’ −24.35 adjusted passing faces a positive Saints pass defense, so a passing-only approach is less appealing. New York must also close its own rushing lanes to keep the Saints from exploiting the same opportunity.

NY Jets at New England

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

New England leads adjusted scoring defense at +9.70 and is positive against both the run and pass. The Jets’ +59.70 adjusted pass defense is their counterweight, but their run defense sits at −16.35 against a Patriots rushing offense at +29.90.

How NY Jets can win: Stop New England from dictating the game on the ground, so the Patriots have to challenge the Jets’ stronger coverage. New York’s offense needs to outperform its 18.60-point average without forcing throws into a sound defense. Long, disciplined possessions and touchdowns from the best opportunities offer a more plausible route than a shootout.

How New England can win: Keep the rushing game central and make the Jets prove they can contain it. New England has positive offensive production in both yardage phases, but the run is the clearer matchup. Its defense should force a Jets passing offense at −44.55 into difficult downs and avoid handing it short fields.

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

These teams sit close in scoring: Pittsburgh averages 22.20 points and Tampa Bay 20.00. Both run defenses are positive after adjustment, while Tampa Bay’s −38.00 passing offense meets a Pittsburgh pass defense at −7.90. The Buccaneers need to turn that opening into something more reliable.

How Pittsburgh can win: Use efficient passing to keep Tampa Bay’s +17.75 adjusted run defense from controlling the game. Pittsburgh’s own passing offense is slightly below benchmark, so protecting possessions and finishing drives are more important than chasing big plays. Its defense must prevent Tampa Bay’s passing game from finding easy answers.

How Tampa Bay can win: Keep the run involved, but use it to set up manageable passes against Pittsburgh’s weaker coverage unit. Tampa Bay cannot depend on a below-benchmark passing attack to erase a large deficit. On defense, make Pittsburgh sustain lengthy possessions and limit the touchdown finishes that would force that chase.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Sunday, October 18 · 1 p.m. ET

Tennessee scores just 11.60 points per game and is below benchmark in both yardage phases. Indianapolis’s −31.38 adjusted pass defense offers a possible opening, but the Titans’ passing offense is −62.90. The Colts have the healthier scoring profile at 24.80 points per game.

How Tennessee can win: Use shorter, repeatable passes to test Indianapolis’s coverage without demanding that the passing game suddenly become explosive. Tennessee needs touchdowns from its best drives, not merely extra yardage. Defensively, contain the Colts’ positive rushing offense and make Indianapolis rely more on its −48.60 adjusted passing output.

How Indianapolis can win: Use the running game against Tennessee’s −8.00 adjusted run defense to stay ahead of the chains. Indianapolis must also fix enough of its coverage to keep the Titans from escaping their offensive struggles. Making Tennessee drive the length of the field would let the Colts’ scoring advantage matter.

Arizona at LA Rams

Sunday, October 18 · 4:05 p.m. ET

The Rams average 424.40 yards per game, with a +104.40 adjusted passing offense. Arizona allows 32.40 points and has a −20.55 pass defense. Arizona’s best way to resist may be to reduce the number of possessions it asks its defense to survive.

How Arizona can win: Test the Rams’ −17.15 adjusted run defense to create manageable downs and keep their passing offense off the field. Arizona’s own rushing output is −23.30, so that requires better execution. The Cardinals must also keep passing gains in front of them and force the Rams to earn touchdowns over several plays.

How LA Rams can win: Attack Arizona through the air and convert the yardage advantage into touchdowns. The Rams’ 23.80-point average still lags their movement of the ball. On defense, stop Arizona from using the run to control possession, then force the Cardinals to challenge a +60.80 adjusted pass defense.

Buffalo at Las Vegas

Sunday, October 18 · 4:25 p.m. ET

Buffalo leads adjusted scoring offense at +10.85 and averages 32.80 points. Its +66.70 adjusted rushing meets Las Vegas’s −19.68 run defense. The Raiders can answer through the air: their +55.63 passing offense faces Buffalo’s −35.80 pass defense.

How Buffalo can win: Lean on the rushing advantage to keep the offense in favorable situations and turn sustained drives into touchdowns. Buffalo’s defense must limit Las Vegas’s passing gains; simply assuming the offense can cover another 28.20 points allowed is risky. Force the Raiders to make repeated difficult completions.

How Las Vegas can win: Use the passing game to test Buffalo’s coverage rather than relying on a −38.23 adjusted rushing offense against a positive run defense. Las Vegas also has to improve its tackling against Buffalo’s ground game. A passing response is much more useful if the Raiders can produce occasional stops instead of conceding touchdowns on every extended drive.

LA Chargers at Kansas City

Sunday, October 18 · 4:25 p.m. ET

Kansas City returns from its bye with positive adjusted offense in scoring, rushing and passing. The Chargers score only 16.80 points per game. Their +35.30 adjusted pass defense offers resistance, but a −17.30 run defense gives Kansas City another route.

How LA Chargers can win: Contain Kansas City on the ground so the Chiefs have to test the Chargers’ stronger coverage unit. On offense, use the Chiefs’ −36.56 adjusted pass defense as a chance to improve, while recognizing that Los Angeles’s own passing output is −70.90. The Chargers need efficient completions and touchdown finishes to avoid another low-output game.

How Kansas City can win: Use the +38.25 adjusted rushing offense against Los Angeles’s run-defense weakness, rather than repeatedly attacking its best unit. Kansas City’s coverage needs to make the Chargers earn progress despite its own negative adjusted passing figure. Avoiding easy scoring opportunities would put the burden back on a struggling Los Angeles offense.

Dallas at Green Bay

Sunday, October 18 · 8:20 p.m. ET

Green Bay’s +79.15 adjusted passing offense faces Dallas’s −20.75 pass defense. Dallas is productive through the air too at +52.35, but its −54.25 run defense is another concern. Green Bay must decide how much to test that weakness with a rushing offense of its own at −37.90.

How Dallas can win: Keep the passing game efficient against a Green Bay defense positive in both phases. Dallas also needs to stop the run without exposing its coverage to the Packers’ stronger passing attack. Giving Green Bay easy rushing yards would let it hide its weakest offensive area and choose when to throw.

How Green Bay can win: Build around the passing advantage while testing whether Dallas can stop the run. The Cowboys’ defensive rushing numbers are an opportunity, not proof that Green Bay’s ground game is fixed. Defensively, make Dallas work through long drives and prevent its passing offense from turning this into an exchange of quick touchdowns.

Washington at San Francisco

Monday, October 19 · 8:15 p.m. ET

San Francisco scores 30.80 points per game and has a +54.05 adjusted passing offense. Washington allows 29.80 points with a −55.15 pass defense. Washington’s +13.35 rushing offense is a more convincing starting point than its −32.75 passing production, but San Francisco defends both phases well.

How Washington can win: Use the run to create manageable downs and avoid making a struggling passing game carry a large comeback. Washington must keep San Francisco’s passing gains in front of the defense and make it finish long possessions. A few touchdown drives of its own are necessary; simply using clock will not overcome the offensive gap.

How San Francisco can win: Test Washington’s coverage early and keep converting passing gains into points. San Francisco can remain balanced, but the air matchup is the clearer opportunity. Its defense should contain Washington’s positive rushing offense and force the Commanders to depend on their below-benchmark passing game.

Ratings and statistical sources

These comparisons use my Power ratings, Elo ratings, offense statistics and defense statistics, updated October 13 through Week 5. The source pages update during the season; this preview preserves the Week 5 snapshot.