Week 8 sends 19 of my top 25 onto the field in 14 games. LSU visits Auburn, Ole Miss travels to Texas, and Houston closes the slate at Utah. Six selected teams have open dates: Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Florida, Wake Forest and Missouri.
Reading the tale of the tape
Records, Power rank and Elo rank remain visible above each matchup chart. Use Unit to switch offense and defense and Measure to switch per-game and adjusted scoring. Both teams share the same chart scale; expand View all matchup data for the frozen table.
Adjusted scoring measures points per game relative to an opponent benchmark. Higher is better for both adjusted offense and adjusted defense: positive offense means scoring above the benchmark, and positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points allowed is better. The matching FBS data does not contain consistent rushing, passing or total-yardage measures, so this preview intentionally uses scoring only. These adjustments are not projected scores or a point spread.
The paths to victory are grounded opinions from the frozen statistics, not model picks, probabilities, scores or injury reports. Schedule dates, sites and kickoff times were checked October 22 against the Week 8 TV schedule and available official school schedules; times are Eastern. No selected team plays Thursday or Friday, so there are no already-played selected-team results to report.
This week’s top 25
Matchup previews
Pittsburgh at Miami (FL)
Saturday, October 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Miami Gardens, Florida · Hard Rock Stadium
Miami brings the better scoring profile on both sides, led by +16.327 adjusted offense. Pittsburgh’s 16.43 points allowed offers a real resistance test.
| Tale of the tape | Pittsburgh | Miami (FL) |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 6–0–0 |
| Power rank | 49 | 1 |
| Elo rank | 50 | 1 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 32.86 | 48.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +3.067 | +16.327 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 16.43 | 14.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.058 | +10.467 |
Pittsburgh’s path to victory: Keep Miami’s offense from turning possessions into quick scores, then make its own solid defense create a short-field game.
Miami’s path to victory: Let the offense make its adjusted edge visible while maintaining the defensive level that has allowed 14.00 points per game.
Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Saturday, October 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Cincinnati, Ohio · Nippert Stadium
Texas Tech owns both adjusted scoring edges, particularly a +13.180 offense against Cincinnati’s -1.780 defense.
| Tale of the tape | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–0–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 13 | 55 |
| Elo rank | 12 | 55 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 37.83 | 35.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +13.180 | +3.060 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 17.67 | 26.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.350 | -1.780 |
Texas Tech’s path to victory: Convert its two-way edge into a controlled game and avoid giving Cincinnati the short fields it needs to offset the defensive gap.
Cincinnati’s path to victory: Turn a 35.17-point attack into an above-benchmark performance and keep Texas Tech from exploiting the raw points-allowed difference.
LSU at Auburn
Saturday, October 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Auburn, Alabama · Jordan-Hare Stadium
LSU’s +13.483 adjusted offense meets Auburn’s +9.200 adjusted defense, but LSU also holds the stronger raw and adjusted defensive profile.
| Tale of the tape | LSU | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 3 | 18 |
| Elo rank | 4 | 20 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 40.43 | 26.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +13.483 | +1.250 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 15.86 | 21.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +15.075 | +9.200 |
LSU’s path to victory: Finish drives against Auburn’s capable defense, then rely on its stronger defense to keep the game from becoming a possession-for-possession race.
Auburn’s path to victory: Make the defensive matchup matter early and lift the offense above its modest adjusted baseline rather than trying to chase LSU’s pace.
Indiana at Michigan
Saturday, October 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Ann Arbor, Michigan · Michigan Stadium
Indiana’s +19.944 adjusted defense is the biggest unit advantage in the game, alongside a large offensive separation.
| Tale of the tape | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 15 | 34 |
| Elo rank | 15 | 38 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 36.57 | 22.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.431 | -0.567 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 12.86 | 16.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +19.944 | +6.458 |
Indiana’s path to victory: Make Michigan complete long drives against the country’s best adjusted defense, then let its offense build a lead without forcing tempo.
Michigan’s path to victory: Use its defense to reduce Indiana’s efficiency and ask the offense to move above its negative adjusted baseline.
Oregon at Illinois
Saturday, October 24 · 3:00 PM ET · Champaign, Illinois · Memorial Stadium
Oregon has a significant defensive edge: +12.180 adjusted defense against Illinois’s -4.730, while the offenses are much closer.
| Tale of the tape | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–2–0 | 3–3–0 |
| Power rank | 25 | 60 |
| Elo rank | 23 | 63 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 37.00 | 31.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.110 | +6.093 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 20.67 | 27.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +12.180 | -4.730 |
Oregon’s path to victory: Let the defense suppress Illinois’s scoring, then turn a modest offensive advantage into a game Illinois cannot open up.
Illinois’s path to victory: Keep Oregon from exploiting the defensive mismatch and convert its near-peer adjusted offense into efficient finishing drives.
BYU at UCF
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Orlando, Florida · FBC Mortgage Stadium
BYU’s +16.800 adjusted defense and 15.17 points allowed give it the clearest matchup edge.
| Tale of the tape | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–0–0 | 3–3–0 |
| Power rank | 2 | 51 |
| Elo rank | 2 | 51 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 33.50 | 31.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.500 | +1.670 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 15.17 | 21.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +16.800 | +4.400 |
BYU’s path to victory: Use the defense to make UCF sustain difficult drives and take the efficient scoring chances that follow.
UCF’s path to victory: Make its offense outperform a strong BYU defense while reducing the number of possessions in which BYU can leverage its two-way advantage.
Texas A&M at Alabama
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Tuscaloosa, Alabama · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama’s +17.079 adjusted offense is the largest offensive figure here, while both defenses have positive adjustments.
| Tale of the tape | Texas A&M | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–3–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 30 | 5 |
| Elo rank | 36 | 7 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.43 | 39.29 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.367 | +17.079 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 17.14 | 21.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.092 | +12.143 |
Texas A&M’s path to victory: Turn its defense into a red-zone and field-position advantage, then raise the offense well beyond its baseline against Alabama’s strong scoring profile.
Alabama’s path to victory: Make the adjusted offensive edge visible without assuming Texas A&M’s defense will yield easy scores; its own defense can create the separation.
Tennessee at South Carolina
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Columbia, South Carolina · Williams-Brice Stadium
Tennessee brings a pronounced defensive edge, while South Carolina’s adjusted offense has been stronger despite its 3–3 record.
| Tale of the tape | Tennessee | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 3–3–0 |
| Power rank | 6 | 23 |
| Elo rank | 8 | 24 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 33.43 | 37.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.106 | +8.600 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 14.71 | 25.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +12.344 | +1.013 |
Tennessee’s path to victory: Let the defense turn South Carolina’s productive offense into a long-drive test, then avoid giveaways that would erase that edge.
South Carolina’s path to victory: Sustain its adjusted offensive strength against Tennessee’s defense and stop the visitors from gaining separation through routine scoring efficiency.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Starkville, Mississippi · Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State has the more productive offense, while Oklahoma’s +11.617 adjusted defense is the matchup’s leading unit.
| Tale of the tape | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–3–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 29 | 16 |
| Elo rank | 29 | 18 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.33 | 32.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.983 | +8.672 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 18.17 | 28.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +11.617 | +1.883 |
Oklahoma’s path to victory: Turn its adjusted defensive advantage into stalled Mississippi State drives, then get the offense above its negative adjusted baseline.
Mississippi State’s path to victory: Make its offense dictate the game before Oklahoma’s defense can compress possessions; avoiding short fields protects the weaker defensive profile.
Michigan State at UCLA
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Pasadena, California · Rose Bowl Stadium
UCLA holds the advantages in every listed scoring measure, though Michigan State’s adjusted defense is respectable.
| Tale of the tape | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 2–5–0 | 6–0–0 |
| Power rank | 74 | 11 |
| Elo rank | 78 | 5 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.29 | 35.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.502 | +5.925 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 25.43 | 16.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.524 | +9.508 |
Michigan State’s path to victory: Use the defense to pull UCLA below its normal scoring pace and make a low-waste offensive day compensate for the negative adjustment.
UCLA’s path to victory: Keep the game inside its broad scoring advantage, especially by making Michigan State’s offense earn every sustained drive.
Iowa at Minnesota
Saturday, October 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Minneapolis, Minnesota · Huntington Bank Stadium
Iowa’s +9.733 adjusted defense meets a Minnesota offense and defense below their opponent-adjusted benchmarks.
| Tale of the tape | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 22 | 42 |
| Elo rank | 21 | 44 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 31.00 | 28.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +3.873 | -6.040 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 14.50 | 21.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +9.733 | -0.160 |
Iowa’s path to victory: Trust the defense to remove Minnesota’s margin for error, then turn ordinary offensive efficiency into enough scoring.
Minnesota’s path to victory: Improve on both adjusted baselines and use home field to keep Iowa from setting the game through defense and field position.
Ole Miss at Texas
Saturday, October 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Austin, Texas · Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium
Ole Miss has the stronger offense, but Texas’s +17.417 adjusted defense and 17.83 points allowed make this the clearest strength-on-strength collision of the evening.
| Tale of the tape | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 4 | 12 |
| Elo rank | 6 | 13 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 37.50 | 30.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.533 | +7.289 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.83 | 17.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.433 | +17.417 |
Ole Miss’s path to victory: Keep its offense efficient against the best defense on the slate and avoid exposing a 23.83-point defense to short fields.
Texas’s path to victory: Let the defense pull Ole Miss below its scoring standard, then turn a steady offense into enough separation at home.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Saturday, October 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Lexington, Kentucky · Kroger Field
Kentucky has the better adjusted offense and defense, while Vanderbilt has struggled on both sides after adjustment.
| Tale of the tape | Vanderbilt | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–4–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 58 | 9 |
| Elo rank | 65 | 10 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.57 | 32.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -3.850 | +8.297 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.71 | 25.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -6.442 | +6.556 |
Vanderbilt’s path to victory: Find a way to make the game short, improve on both negative adjusted figures, and deny Kentucky easy scoring possessions.
Kentucky’s path to victory: Let its balanced advantages become routine scoring and stops, without giving Vanderbilt the extra possessions required for an upset bid.
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Saturday, October 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Clemson, South Carolina · Memorial Stadium
Virginia Tech’s offense has been better by the raw and adjusted figures, while Clemson’s defensive adjustment is the stabilizing counterpoint.
| Tale of the tape | Virginia Tech | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 64 | 24 |
| Elo rank | 70 | 25 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 37.14 | 22.33 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +2.675 | -3.560 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.14 | 21.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -3.050 | +3.550 |
Virginia Tech’s path to victory: Sustain its offense against Clemson’s better adjusted defense and avoid allowing the hosts to turn the game into a low-scoring squeeze.
Clemson’s path to victory: Use the defense to blunt Virginia Tech’s most obvious advantage, then make the offense exceed its negative adjusted scoring baseline.
Houston at Utah
Saturday, October 24 · 10:15 PM ET · Salt Lake City, Utah · Rice-Eccles Stadium
The offenses are closely matched after adjustment, but Utah’s 14.83 raw points allowed is the clearest defensive difference.
| Tale of the tape | Houston | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 6–0–0 |
| Power rank | 21 | 17 |
| Elo rank | 19 | 16 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 39.29 | 40.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.467 | +11.250 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.00 | 14.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +9.633 | +6.790 |
Houston’s path to victory: Let its +9.633 adjusted defense create enough stops to keep Utah from converting its raw defensive edge into control of the game.
Utah’s path to victory: Preserve the defense’s 14.83-point standard and use the slightly stronger adjusted offense to make Houston chase efficient answers late.