Week 7 puts five pairs from my power top 25 in the same game, including Ohio State at Indiana, Notre Dame at BYU, Kentucky at Oklahoma, Missouri at Ole Miss and Wisconsin at UCLA. Georgia hosts Auburn, Alabama visits Tennessee and Miami hosts Florida State in the other marquee spots. Fifteen games cover 23 selected teams; South Carolina and Iowa are idle.
The selection is from my power ratings, not an AP, Coaches, CFP or Elo poll. Every upcoming game involving a selected team is included, and a game between two selected teams appears once.
Reading the tale of the tape
Records, Power rank and Elo rank remain visible above each matchup chart. Use Unit to switch offense and defense and Measure to switch per-game and adjusted scoring. Both teams share the same chart scale; expand View all matchup data for the frozen table.
Adjusted scoring measures points per game relative to an opponent benchmark. Higher is better for both adjusted offense and adjusted defense: positive offense means scoring above the benchmark, and positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points allowed is better. These adjustments are not projected scores or a point spread.
The paths to victory are grounded opinions from the frozen statistics, not model picks, probabilities, scores or injury reports. Official school, conference or NCAA schedule information was checked October 15; all listed times are Eastern.
This week’s top 25
Matchup previews
Mississippi St. at LSU
Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Baton Rouge, Louisiana · Tiger Stadium
LSU’s +11.277 adjusted defense is the strongest unit in this matchup, while its +12.250 adjusted offense also outpaces Mississippi State’s +14.260 only narrowly on the other side.
| Tale of the tape | Mississippi St. | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–1–0 | 4–2–0 |
| Power rank | 5 | 12 |
| Elo rank | 5 | 14 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +14.260 | +12.250 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 28.00 | 18.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.410 | +11.277 |
Mississippi State’s path to victory: Turn its opponent-adjusted offensive edge into touchdowns against LSU’s strong defense. The Bulldogs cannot let their 28.00 points allowed create a succession of short fields.
LSU’s path to victory: Make the defense dictate the game, then let its 42.00-point attack convert pressure into separation. Holding Mississippi State below its raw average would put LSU’s clearest edge to work.
Florida at Texas
Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Austin, Texas · Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium
Florida’s +18.250 adjusted offense meets Texas’s +18.253 adjusted defense, the week’s cleanest strength-on-strength collision. Texas has allowed only 16.00 points per game.
| Tale of the tape | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–2–0 | 4–1–0 |
| Power rank | 20 | 9 |
| Elo rank | 20 | 10 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 41.67 | 31.40 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +18.250 | +10.883 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.00 | 16.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -1.600 | +18.253 |
Florida’s path to victory: Sustain the offense through the matchup Texas wants least: a Florida unit that has been far above benchmark. The Gators also need to improve on a negative adjusted defense rather than asking the offense to win every exchange.
Texas’s path to victory: Keep Florida from living at its 41.67-point pace and use the defensive advantage to make 31.40 raw points enough. Texas’s defense, not a track meet, is the sturdier route.
Ohio St. at Indiana
Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Bloomington, Indiana · Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium
Indiana’s +20.883 adjusted defense is the best figure on either side, but Ohio State’s +15.125 offense and 42.67-point average ensure it will be tested immediately.
| Tale of the tape | Ohio St. | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 6–0–0 |
| Power rank | 14 | 6 |
| Elo rank | 12 | 6 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 42.67 | 40.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +15.125 | +10.850 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 13.17 | 11.83 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.708 | +20.883 |
Ohio State’s path to victory: Make its adjusted offensive edge visible without surrendering field position. The Buckeyes must finish drives against a defense that has held opponents below both raw and adjusted expectations.
Indiana’s path to victory: Let the defense turn a difficult Ohio State offense into a long-drive test, then lean on its own efficient scoring profile. Avoiding empty possessions keeps the Hoosiers from asking the defense to be perfect.
Northwestern at Michigan St.
Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET · East Lansing, Michigan · Spartan Stadium
Northwestern owns the more complete scoring profile: +12.733 adjusted offense and 16.20 raw points allowed. Michigan State’s +8.522 adjusted defense is its route back into the matchup.
| Tale of the tape | Northwestern | Michigan St. |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–1–0 | 2–4–0 |
| Power rank | 19 | 64 |
| Elo rank | 17 | 65 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 35.40 | 21.33 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +12.733 | -1.561 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 16.20 | 25.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +8.833 | +8.522 |
Northwestern’s path to victory: Make the sizable offensive gap matter on the scoreboard and keep Michigan State’s defense from creating a short field game. The Wildcats’ defense is good enough to reward routine offensive efficiency.
Michigan State’s path to victory: Turn its credible adjusted defense into stops and limit Northwestern possessions. The Spartans need their -1.561 adjusted offense to exceed its baseline rather than trying to trade scores.
Georgia at Auburn
Saturday, October 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Athens, Georgia · Sanford Stadium
Georgia’s 46.17 points per game and +17.740 adjusted offense meet an Auburn offense below benchmark. Auburn’s +10.350 adjusted defense is the indicator that it can make the favorite work.
| Tale of the tape | Auburn | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–2–0 | 6–0–0 |
| Power rank | 30 | 1 |
| Elo rank | 33 | 1 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 26.80 | 46.17 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -2.517 | +17.740 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.40 | 14.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.350 | +10.370 |
Auburn’s path to victory: Let its defense keep the game compact, then turn a few efficient possessions into touchdowns. Its offense must rise above its adjusted baseline; merely matching 26.80 points is unlikely to be enough.
Georgia’s path to victory: Make its offensive advantage show up early while maintaining the defensive level that has held opponents to 14.00 per game. Auburn’s defense is capable, so Georgia needs finish drives rather than assume yards become points.
Alabama at Tennessee
Saturday, October 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Knoxville, Tennessee · Neyland Stadium
Alabama carries the week’s strongest adjusted offense, +22.389, and Tennessee counters with a 15.50-point raw defensive average. The split makes Tennessee’s defense the central test.
| Tale of the tape | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 5–1–0 |
| Power rank | 2 | 21 |
| Elo rank | 3 | 22 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 44.17 | 34.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +22.389 | +6.833 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 20.67 | 15.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +16.292 | +7.783 |
Alabama’s path to victory: Keep producing the opponent-adjusted offense that has separated it all season and prevent Tennessee from controlling the game through defense. The Tide’s +16.292 adjusted defense gives it another viable way to win possessions.
Tennessee’s path to victory: Make Alabama earn every score and cash in when its own 34.67-point offense finds opportunities against a 20.67-point defense. A low-waste game is more persuasive than trying to match Alabama’s pace.
Missouri at Ole Miss
Saturday, October 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Oxford, Mississippi · Vaught–Hemingway Stadium
Missouri’s +17.543 adjusted defense is the decisive number, while Ole Miss’s 38.80 points per game says the visitors will have to earn that edge against a productive attack.
| Tale of the tape | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 4–1–0 |
| Power rank | 8 | 17 |
| Elo rank | 11 | 19 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 35.83 | 38.80 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.980 | +8.550 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 17.67 | 28.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +17.543 | +1.800 |
Missouri’s path to victory: Use the defensive edge to reduce Ole Miss’s scoring efficiency, then turn its own above-benchmark offense into sustained answers. A 17.67-point defensive average gives Missouri room to play patient football.
Ole Miss’s path to victory: Push Missouri away from its preferred defensive control with a fast, efficient offense. The Rebels need their +8.550 adjusted offense to outperform a major defensive mismatch and avoid leaving their 28.00-point defense exposed.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona St.
Saturday, October 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Lubbock, Texas · Galaxy Stadium
Texas Tech holds advantages in both adjusted measures, especially against Arizona State’s -8.167 adjusted defense. The Red Raiders’ 16.20 points allowed provides a second anchor.
| Tale of the tape | Arizona St. | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–2–0 | 5–0–0 |
| Power rank | 55 | 13 |
| Elo rank | 61 | 9 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 32.60 | 34.80 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.383 | +11.938 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 27.80 | 16.20 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -8.167 | +8.000 |
Arizona State’s path to victory: Convert its 32.60-point average into a sharper showing against a defense allowing 16.20 per game, while preventing Texas Tech from exploiting the adjusted defensive gap. Field position and finishes matter more than volume.
Texas Tech’s path to victory: Keep the game inside its two-way statistical advantage. An efficient offense should have opportunities against Arizona State’s defense; pairing that with routine stops is the straightforward route.
UCLA vs. Wisconsin
Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Pasadena, California · Rose Bowl Stadium
Wisconsin’s +13.000 adjusted defense is the top unit in a matchup where UCLA has been unbeaten. UCLA must turn its 39.20 raw scoring average into better opponent-adjusted production.
| Tale of the tape | Wisconsin | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–1–0 | 5–0–0 |
| Power rank | 24 | 10 |
| Elo rank | 25 | 8 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 31.60 | 39.20 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +11.550 | +6.900 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 16.60 | 18.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +13.000 | +7.817 |
Wisconsin’s path to victory: Trust the defense to lower UCLA’s scoring efficiency, then let its better adjusted offense turn a few extra stops into a lead. Avoiding a field-position deficit matters against an unbeaten opponent.
UCLA’s path to victory: Make its raw scoring advantage travel to the opponent-adjusted context. The Bruins need to protect a defense that has been good, but not as strong as Wisconsin’s by this measure.
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Norman, Oklahoma · Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Kentucky owns the better adjusted offense, but Oklahoma’s +14.200 adjusted defense and 17.60 raw points allowed create a classic offense-versus-defense test.
| Tale of the tape | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 3–2–0 |
| Power rank | 7 | 22 |
| Elo rank | 7 | 21 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 34.67 | 23.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +8.810 | +2.567 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 28.00 | 17.60 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.310 | +14.200 |
Kentucky’s path to victory: Make the adjusted offensive advantage count in touchdowns and limit Oklahoma’s opportunities to exploit its 28.00 points allowed. The Wildcats need an efficient road offensive day, not simply more snaps.
Oklahoma’s path to victory: Turn the defensive edge into stalled Kentucky drives, then ask its offense to improve on its +2.567 adjusted baseline. The Sooners do not need a shootout if 17.60-point defense holds.
Miami (FL) vs. Florida St.
Saturday, October 17 · 7:00 PM ET · Miami Gardens, Florida · Hard Rock Stadium
Miami has been exceptional on both sides: 49.60 points scored, 9.80 allowed and positive adjusted figures in each unit. Florida State’s +5.830 adjusted offense is the opening it must build on.
| Tale of the tape | Florida St. | Miami (FL) |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–3–0 | 5–0–0 |
| Power rank | 63 | 3 |
| Elo rank | 67 | 2 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 31.00 | 49.60 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +5.830 | +16.250 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 25.33 | 9.80 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +2.550 | +14.575 |
Florida State’s path to victory: Use the offense’s above-benchmark profile to sustain drives and avoid gifting Miami’s explosive offense easy possessions. The Seminoles need their defense to exceed its 25.33-point baseline.
Miami’s path to victory: Keep the game on the terms that have produced a 49.60-to-9.80 scoring margin. The Hurricanes can win with offense or defense; disciplined finishing keeps both advantages relevant.
Notre Dame at BYU
Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Provo, Utah · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Notre Dame’s +18.928 adjusted offense is the larger explosive number, while BYU’s +16.583 adjusted defense and 13.40 raw points allowed make this the week’s most direct clash of elite units.
| Tale of the tape | Notre Dame | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–0–0 | 5–0–0 |
| Power rank | 4 | 18 |
| Elo rank | 4 | 15 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 44.00 | 34.60 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +18.928 | +2.313 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +13.750 | +16.583 |
Notre Dame’s path to victory: Sustain the offense against BYU’s excellent defense and keep the game from becoming a field-position squeeze. Its own 11.00-point defense gives the Irish room to be patient if they finish enough drives.
BYU’s path to victory: Let the defense lower Notre Dame’s efficiency and use a mistake-free offense to stay ahead of the chains. BYU cannot expect its +2.313 adjusted offense alone to win a shootout.
Utah at Colorado
Saturday, October 17 · 8:15 PM ET · Boulder, Colorado · Folsom Field
Utah brings a +14.521 adjusted offense and 13.00 raw points allowed; Colorado’s +6.833 adjusted defense is its best statistical counterweight.
| Tale of the tape | Utah | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–0–0 | 2–3–0 |
| Power rank | 15 | 58 |
| Elo rank | 18 | 58 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 42.80 | 18.60 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +14.521 | -13.000 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 13.00 | 25.40 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +11.750 | +6.833 |
Utah’s path to victory: Use its clear two-way advantage without offering Colorado extra possessions. A defense allowing 13.00 per game can make the Utes’ 42.80-point offense more than sufficient.
Colorado’s path to victory: Build around a defense that has held up better after adjustment than its raw average suggests, and find a way for the -13.000 adjusted offense to exceed its recent baseline. Short fields and efficient finishes are essential.
Wake Forest at California
Saturday, October 17 · 10:30 PM ET · Berkeley, California · California Memorial Stadium
Wake Forest holds an advantage in both adjusted measures, while California enters with negative offense and defense adjustments. The late kickoff does not change the statistical task for either side.
| Tale of the tape | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 3–3–0 |
| Power rank | 16 | 60 |
| Elo rank | 13 | 60 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 36.83 | 26.67 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.253 | -2.010 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.50 | 25.50 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.200 | -2.057 |
Wake Forest’s path to victory: Let the balanced profile work: score above benchmark against a below-benchmark defense and hold California below its 26.67 raw average. Avoiding loose possessions preserves the advantage.
California’s path to victory: Use home field to create the defensive disruption its current adjustment has not supplied, then convert scoring chances efficiently. The Bears need both units to exceed their baseline rather than leaning on one mismatch.
Nebraska at Oregon
Saturday, October 17 · 11:00 PM ET · Eugene, Oregon · Autzen Stadium
Nebraska’s +15.630 adjusted offense meets Oregon’s +10.000 adjusted defense. Oregon’s 41.00 raw points per game puts pressure on Nebraska’s otherwise strong scoring profile.
| Tale of the tape | Nebraska | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–1–0 | 3–2–0 |
| Power rank | 23 | 32 |
| Elo rank | 24 | 28 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 39.17 | 41.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +15.630 | +8.854 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 15.17 | 22.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +9.450 | +10.000 |
Nebraska’s path to victory: Convert the adjusted offensive advantage into a lead while keeping Oregon’s 41.00-point offense from generating easy scores. Nebraska’s 15.17 raw defensive average suggests that balance is possible.
Oregon’s path to victory: Make the defensive matchup the difference and turn its own high-scoring offense into a sustained road-block for Nebraska. The Ducks need to prevent Nebraska from defining the game through scoring efficiency.