Thomas Dale and Oscar Smith split the model leads in 6A and both get the opening round off. In Region 6D, the two highest Elo ratings are separated by less than a quarter of a point.
Power ratings, Elo and records come from the Beyond the Standings Week 11 rankings. The ranks below are recalculated among each region’s playoff teams. Pairings follow the published opening-round schedule.
Highest-rated teams outside the bracket
Centreville (5-5) ranked 14th in Class 6 power and 17th in Elo, placing fifth and sixth, respectively, in Region 6D. Lake Braddock (3-7) ranked seventh in both measures in Region 6C, and Patriot (5-5) was eighth in Elo and ninth in power in Region 6B.
Region 6A
Thomas Dale and Oscar Smith take the byes and split the top spots, with Thomas Dale first in power and Oscar Smith first in Elo. Manchester ranks third in both and opens against Cosby.
| Seed | School | Record | Power | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | Thomas Dale | 10-0 | 123.066 (1) | 1663.786 (2) |
| No. 2 | Oscar Smith | 7-2-1 | 120.689 (2) | 1672.456 (1) |
| No. 3 | Manchester | 8-2 | 117.433 (3) | 1629.072 (3) |
| No. 4 | L.C. Bird | 4-5 | 113.834 (4) | 1540.055 (4) |
| No. 5 | Landstown | 6-4 | 104.509 (6) | 1519.834 (5) |
| No. 6 | Cosby | 5-5 | 109.715 (5) | 1495.426 (6) |
First round
First-round byes. No. 1 Thomas Dale and No. 2 Oscar Smith.
No. 6 Cosby vs. No. 3 Manchester
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 | Cosby (5-5) | 109.715 (5) | 1495.426 (6) | vs. | No. 3 | Manchester (8-2) | 117.433 (3) | 1629.072 (3) |
No. 5 Landstown vs. No. 4 L.C. Bird
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 | Landstown (6-4) | 104.509 (6) | 1519.834 (5) | vs. | No. 4 | L.C. Bird (4-5) | 113.834 (4) | 1540.055 (4) |
Region 6B
Colonial Forge tops both models. The largest split among the top seeds belongs to Woodbridge, which ranks fifth in power and second in Elo after allowing 67 points in ten games.
Seed differences of two or more places. No. 4 Woodbridge (power #5, Elo #2), No. 5 Gar-Field (power #7, Elo #5), No. 6 Stafford (power #4, Elo #7), No. 8 Independence (power #8, Elo #6).
| Seed | School | Record | Power | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | Colonial Forge | 9-1 | 119.623 (1) | 1674.193 (1) |
| No. 2 | Brooke Point | 9-1 | 118.087 (2) | 1638.543 (3) |
| No. 3 | Battlefield | 9-1 | 112.834 (3) | 1637.454 (4) |
| No. 4 | Woodbridge | 9-1 | 111.678 (5) | 1662.409 (2) |
| No. 5 | Gar-Field | 8-2 | 108.088 (7) | 1597.722 (5) |
| No. 6 | Stafford | 7-3 | 112.080 (4) | 1535.416 (7) |
| No. 7 | Gainesville | 6-4 | 109.349 (6) | 1518.444 (8) |
| No. 8 | Independence | 5-5 | 105.708 (8) | 1540.524 (6) |
First round
No. 8 Independence vs. No. 1 Colonial Forge
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 8 | Independence (5-5) | 105.708 (8) | 1540.524 (6) | vs. | No. 1 | Colonial Forge (9-1) | 119.623 (1) | 1674.193 (1) |
No. 7 Gainesville vs. No. 2 Brooke Point
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 | Gainesville (6-4) | 109.349 (6) | 1518.444 (8) | vs. | No. 2 | Brooke Point (9-1) | 118.087 (2) | 1638.543 (3) |
No. 6 Stafford vs. No. 3 Battlefield
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 | Stafford (7-3) | 112.080 (4) | 1535.416 (7) | vs. | No. 3 | Battlefield (9-1) | 112.834 (3) | 1637.454 (4) |
No. 5 Gar-Field vs. No. 4 Woodbridge
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 | Gar-Field (8-2) | 108.088 (7) | 1597.722 (5) | vs. | No. 4 | Woodbridge (9-1) | 111.678 (5) | 1662.409 (2) |
Region 6C
South County tops power and West Springfield tops Elo. No. 3 Mount Vernon ranks third in Elo and fifth in power, while No. 4 West Potomac sits third in power and seventh in Elo.
Seed differences of two or more places. No. 4 West Potomac (power #3, Elo #7), No. 3 Mount Vernon (power #5, Elo #3), No. 8 Falls Church (power #8, Elo #6).
| Seed | School | Record | Power | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | South County | 9-1 | 115.951 (1) | 1622.420 (2) |
| No. 2 | West Springfield | 8-2 | 114.620 (2) | 1649.129 (1) |
| No. 3 | Mount Vernon | 8-2 | 106.980 (5) | 1595.560 (3) |
| No. 4 | West Potomac | 6-4 | 108.710 (3) | 1487.806 (7) |
| No. 5 | Alexandria City | 7-3 | 107.180 (4) | 1529.814 (4) |
| No. 6 | Hayfield | 5-5 | 102.866 (7) | 1515.045 (5) |
| No. 7 | James Robinson | 4-6 | 105.168 (6) | 1449.398 (8) |
| No. 8 | Falls Church | 6-4 | 96.123 (8) | 1509.864 (6) |
First round
No. 8 Falls Church vs. No. 1 South County
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 8 | Falls Church (6-4) | 96.123 (8) | 1509.864 (6) | vs. | No. 1 | South County (9-1) | 115.951 (1) | 1622.420 (2) |
No. 7 James Robinson vs. No. 2 West Springfield
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 | James Robinson (4-6) | 105.168 (6) | 1449.398 (8) | vs. | No. 2 | West Springfield (8-2) | 114.620 (2) | 1649.129 (1) |
No. 6 Hayfield vs. No. 3 Mount Vernon
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 | Hayfield (5-5) | 102.866 (7) | 1515.045 (5) | vs. | No. 3 | Mount Vernon (8-2) | 106.980 (5) | 1595.560 (3) |
No. 5 Alexandria City vs. No. 4 West Potomac
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 | Alexandria City (7-3) | 107.180 (4) | 1529.814 (4) | vs. | No. 4 | West Potomac (6-4) | 108.710 (3) | 1487.806 (7) |
Region 6D
Oakton leads regional power. Langley and James Madison sit atop Elo, separated by just 0.215 Elo points.
No. 2 Langley ranks fifth in power and first in Elo among the qualifiers. No. 5 James Madison and No. 7 Westfield both rank higher than their seeds in both models.
Seed differences of two or more places. No. 2 Langley (power #5, Elo #1), No. 4 Yorktown (power #6, Elo #7), No. 5 James Madison (power #3, Elo #2), No. 7 Westfield (power #4, Elo #5), No. 1 Oakton (power #1, Elo #3).
| Seed | School | Record | Power | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | Oakton | 10-0 | 122.482 (1) | 1618.759 (3) |
| No. 2 | Langley | 8-2 | 111.452 (5) | 1624.051 (1) |
| No. 3 | South Lakes | 9-1 | 119.776 (2) | 1604.714 (4) |
| No. 4 | Yorktown | 6-4 | 105.169 (6) | 1532.202 (7) |
| No. 5 | James Madison | 7-3 | 117.546 (3) | 1623.836 (2) |
| No. 6 | Washington-Liberty | 6-4 | 104.447 (7) | 1548.692 (6) |
| No. 7 | Westfield | 7-3 | 114.413 (4) | 1603.304 (5) |
| No. 8 | George C. Marshall | 5-5 | 99.134 (8) | 1516.399 (8) |
First round
No. 8 George C. Marshall vs. No. 1 Oakton
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 8 | George C. Marshall (5-5) | 99.134 (8) | 1516.399 (8) | vs. | No. 1 | Oakton (10-0) | 122.482 (1) | 1618.759 (3) |
No. 7 Westfield vs. No. 2 Langley
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 | Westfield (7-3) | 114.413 (4) | 1603.304 (5) | vs. | No. 2 | Langley (8-2) | 111.452 (5) | 1624.051 (1) |
No. 6 Washington-Liberty vs. No. 3 South Lakes
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 | Washington-Liberty (6-4) | 104.447 (7) | 1548.692 (6) | vs. | No. 3 | South Lakes (9-1) | 119.776 (2) | 1604.714 (4) |
No. 5 James Madison vs. No. 4 Yorktown
| Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) | vs. | Seed | School | Power Rating (Rank) | Elo Rating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 | James Madison (7-3) | 117.546 (3) | 1623.836 (2) | vs. | No. 4 | Yorktown (6-4) | 105.169 (6) | 1532.202 (7) |