Jefferson Forest and Varina lead both models in their regions from the No. 2 seed. In Region 4A, three of the top four seeds are packed within three-tenths of a power-rating point.

Power ratings, Elo and records come from the Beyond the Standings Week 11 rankings. The ranks below are recalculated among each region’s playoff teams. Pairings follow the published opening-round schedule.

Highest-rated teams outside the bracket

Dinwiddie (2-8) ranked 19th in Class 4 power and sixth in Region 4B, where it was ninth in Elo. Atlee (4-6) had the eighth-best Elo and ninth-best power rating in that same region. Blacksburg (5-5) was eighth in Region 4D Elo and tenth in power. These Week 11 ranks include every team in the referenced class or region.

Region 4A

Lafayette is first by a clear margin in both models. Warhill, Smithfield and Phoebus are within three-tenths of a power-rating point, with Warhill also leading that group in Elo.

Seed differences of two or more places. No. 2 Phoebus (power #4, Elo #3), No. 5 Denbigh (power #7, Elo #7), No. 7 Hampton (power #5, Elo #5).

Seed School Record Power Elo
No. 1 Lafayette 8-1 112.362 (1) 1673.399 (1)
No. 2 Phoebus 7-3 107.784 (4) 1573.196 (3)
No. 3 Warhill 7-3 108.063 (2) 1585.579 (2)
No. 4 Smithfield 7-3 107.906 (3) 1572.331 (4)
No. 5 Denbigh 6-4 103.749 (7) 1505.430 (7)
No. 6 Churchland 5-5 104.603 (6) 1519.296 (6)
No. 7 Hampton 5-5 104.677 (5) 1557.621 (5)
No. 8 Grafton 4-6 100.384 (8) 1452.127 (8)

First round

No. 8 Grafton vs. No. 1 Lafayette

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 8 Grafton (4-6) 100.384 (8) 1452.127 (8) vs. No. 1 Lafayette (8-1) 112.362 (1) 1673.399 (1)

No. 7 Hampton vs. No. 2 Phoebus

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 7 Hampton (5-5) 104.677 (5) 1557.621 (5) vs. No. 2 Phoebus (7-3) 107.784 (4) 1573.196 (3)

No. 6 Churchland vs. No. 3 Warhill

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 6 Churchland (5-5) 104.603 (6) 1519.296 (6) vs. No. 3 Warhill (7-3) 108.063 (2) 1585.579 (2)

No. 5 Denbigh vs. No. 4 Smithfield

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 5 Denbigh (6-4) 103.749 (7) 1505.430 (7) vs. No. 4 Smithfield (7-3) 107.906 (3) 1572.331 (4)

Region 4B

Varina and Huguenot outrank unbeaten No. 1 seed Louisa County in both models. Farther down the bracket, No. 8 Hanover sits fifth in power and draws Louisa in the opening round.

Seed differences of two or more places. No. 8 Hanover (power #5, Elo #7), No. 1 Louisa County (power #3, Elo #3).

Seed School Record Power Elo
No. 1 Louisa County 10-0 113.129 (3) 1673.509 (3)
No. 2 Varina 8-1-1 124.441 (1) 1706.451 (1)
No. 3 Huguenot 9-1 121.186 (2) 1675.654 (2)
No. 4 Courtland 8-2 107.870 (4) 1636.885 (4)
No. 5 Mechanicsville 8-2 104.977 (6) 1524.501 (6)
No. 6 Spotsylvania 6-4 104.410 (7) 1563.643 (5)
No. 7 King George 6-4 100.655 (8) 1445.998 (8)
No. 8 Hanover 5-5 107.054 (5) 1517.662 (7)

First round

No. 8 Hanover vs. No. 1 Louisa County

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 8 Hanover (5-5) 107.054 (5) 1517.662 (7) vs. No. 1 Louisa County (10-0) 113.129 (3) 1673.509 (3)

No. 7 King George vs. No. 2 Varina

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 7 King George (6-4) 100.655 (8) 1445.998 (8) vs. No. 2 Varina (8-1-1) 124.441 (1) 1706.451 (1)

No. 6 Spotsylvania vs. No. 3 Huguenot

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 6 Spotsylvania (6-4) 104.410 (7) 1563.643 (5) vs. No. 3 Huguenot (9-1) 121.186 (2) 1675.654 (2)

No. 5 Mechanicsville vs. No. 4 Courtland

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 5 Mechanicsville (8-2) 104.977 (6) 1524.501 (6) vs. No. 4 Courtland (8-2) 107.870 (4) 1636.885 (4)

Region 4C

Woodgrove and Loudoun Valley earn byes and lead both ratings in that order. The models split on the next two teams, with a narrow power edge for Heritage and a substantially higher Elo for Loudoun County.

Seed School Record Power Elo
No. 1 Woodgrove 9-1 117.854 (1) 1653.358 (1)
No. 2 Loudoun Valley 9-1 112.931 (2) 1635.997 (2)
No. 3 Loudoun County 6-4 108.004 (4) 1583.934 (3)
No. 4 Heritage-Leesburg 7-3 108.274 (3) 1531.312 (4)
No. 5 Broad Run 4-6 101.014 (5) 1445.183 (5)
No. 6 Tuscarora 3-7 96.909 (6) 1429.336 (6)

First round

First-round byes. No. 1 Woodgrove and No. 2 Loudoun Valley.

No. 6 Tuscarora vs. No. 3 Loudoun County

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 6 Tuscarora (3-7) 96.909 (6) 1429.336 (6) vs. No. 3 Loudoun County (6-4) 108.004 (4) 1583.934 (3)

No. 5 Broad Run vs. No. 4 Heritage-Leesburg

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 5 Broad Run (4-6) 101.014 (5) 1445.183 (5) vs. No. 4 Heritage-Leesburg (7-3) 108.274 (3) 1531.312 (4)

Region 4D

Three unbeaten teams enter the bracket. Jefferson Forest leads both models, Sherando sits second in both, and top-seeded George Washington is third in Elo and fifth in power.

Seed differences of two or more places. No. 1 George Washington (power #5, Elo #3), No. 5 Salem (power #3, Elo #5).

Seed School Record Power Elo
No. 1 George Washington 10-0 111.533 (5) 1676.351 (3)
No. 2 Jefferson Forest 10-0 124.695 (1) 1714.145 (1)
No. 3 Sherando 10-0 115.340 (2) 1693.966 (2)
No. 4 James Wood 9-1 111.587 (4) 1646.044 (4)
No. 5 Salem 9-1 111.766 (3) 1614.791 (5)
No. 6 Millbrook 4-6 104.759 (6) 1496.334 (7)
No. 7 John Handley 5-5 102.399 (8) 1541.511 (6)
No. 8 E.C. Glass 4-6 103.496 (7) 1459.972 (8)

First round

No. 8 E.C. Glass vs. No. 1 George Washington

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 8 E.C. Glass (4-6) 103.496 (7) 1459.972 (8) vs. No. 1 George Washington (10-0) 111.533 (5) 1676.351 (3)

No. 7 John Handley vs. No. 2 Jefferson Forest

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 7 John Handley (5-5) 102.399 (8) 1541.511 (6) vs. No. 2 Jefferson Forest (10-0) 124.695 (1) 1714.145 (1)

No. 6 Millbrook vs. No. 3 Sherando

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 6 Millbrook (4-6) 104.759 (6) 1496.334 (7) vs. No. 3 Sherando (10-0) 115.340 (2) 1693.966 (2)

No. 5 Salem vs. No. 4 James Wood

Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank) vs. Seed School Power Rating (Rank) Elo Rating (Rank)
No. 5 Salem (9-1) 111.766 (3) 1614.791 (5) vs. No. 4 James Wood (9-1) 111.587 (4) 1646.044 (4)