Week 9 puts 20 of the completed-week power top 25 on the field in 15 games. Florida and Georgia meet at a neutral site in Atlanta; Ohio State travels to USC; and Miami closes the day at North Carolina. Alabama, LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and Houston are off.
Reading the numbers
Records, Power rank and Elo rank remain visible above each matchup chart. Use Unit to switch offense and defense and Measure to switch per-game and adjusted scoring. Both teams share the same chart scale; expand View all matchup data for the frozen table.
Adjusted scoring measures points per game relative to an opponent benchmark. Higher is better for both adjusted offense and adjusted defense: a positive offensive figure means scoring above the benchmark, while a higher defensive figure means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points allowed is better. The matching FBS data contains no consistent rushing, passing or total-yardage measures, so this preview intentionally uses scoring only. These adjustments are not projected scores, point spreads or probabilities.
This week’s top 25
Matchup previews
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Saturday, October 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Foxborough, Massachusetts · Gillette Stadium (neutral site)
Notre Dame owns the large scoring advantage: +15.537 adjusted offense and +11.569 adjusted defense against Navy’s negative figures.
| Comparison | Notre Dame | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 2–5–0 |
| Power rank | 10 | 106 |
| Elo rank | 9 | 106 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 41.14 | 29.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +15.537 | -2.328 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 13.43 | 29.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +11.569 | -1.506 |
Notre Dame’s path to victory: Let its defense force Navy to sustain drives, then make the sizable adjusted-offense advantage decisive in finishing territory.
Navy’s path to victory: Turn its 29.71-point raw output into a much better-than-baseline performance and limit the number of short fields Notre Dame receives.
Wisconsin at Iowa
Saturday, October 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Iowa City, Iowa · Kinnick Stadium
This is a defense-first matchup: Wisconsin owns +15.206 adjusted defense, Iowa allows the fewer raw points at 14.29 per game, and neither offense has a large adjusted edge.
| Comparison | Wisconsin | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 25 | 27 |
| Elo rank | 25 | 27 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.972 | -0.256 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 15.29 | 14.29 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +15.206 | +8.494 |
Wisconsin’s path to victory: Let the stronger adjusted defense determine field position, then turn its modest offensive adjustment into the game’s separating handful of drives.
Iowa’s path to victory: Preserve the raw scoring-defense edge at home and make Wisconsin work for every point while finding just enough offensive efficiency.
Arizona at Texas Tech
Saturday, October 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Lubbock, Texas · Jones AT&T Stadium
Both teams arrive 6–1. Texas Tech’s +9.311 adjusted offense is the game’s top offensive mark, while Arizona owns the stronger adjusted defense.
| Comparison | Arizona | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 21 | 24 |
| Elo rank | 18 | 24 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 36.14 | 35.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.906 | +9.311 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 16.71 | 20.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.028 | +4.406 |
Arizona’s path to victory: Make the defensive edge count on long fields and keep the contest from becoming a pure finishing-drives contest.
Texas Tech’s path to victory: Convert its slight offensive-adjustment lead without offering Arizona the efficient possessions its defense has consistently prevented.
Auburn at Ole Miss
Saturday, October 31 · 12:45 PM ET · Oxford, Mississippi · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Ole Miss has the more productive scoring offense, but Auburn’s +7.557 adjusted defense is the best unit figure in the matchup.
| Comparison | Auburn | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–3–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 22 | 8 |
| Elo rank | 23 | 10 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 25.43 | 36.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.924 | +10.133 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 24.14 | 25.29 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.557 | +4.771 |
Auburn’s path to victory: Use its defense to pull Ole Miss below its strong scoring standard, then find enough offensive improvement to make possession value matter.
Ole Miss’s path to victory: Sustain the +10.133 adjusted offense against the tougher defensive unit and avoid letting Auburn define the game through field position.
Florida vs. Georgia
Saturday, October 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Atlanta, Georgia · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site)
Georgia has a clear defensive advantage, while Florida’s +13.683 adjusted offense gives it a credible way to challenge the Bulldogs.
| Comparison | Florida | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 13 | 5 |
| Elo rank | 13 | 8 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 39.57 | 43.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +13.683 | +15.512 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 28.29 | 15.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -1.678 | +6.664 |
Florida’s path to victory: Keep its high-end adjusted offense on schedule against Georgia’s defense and avoid allowing the raw-points-allowed gap to decide the game.
Georgia’s path to victory: Pair the superior defensive profile with an offense that already scores 43.00 points per game, forcing Florida to win a complete game.
Minnesota at Indiana
Saturday, October 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Bloomington, Indiana · Memorial Stadium
Indiana’s +19.390 adjusted defense is the most decisive unit edge on the slate; Minnesota’s defense has still allowed only 20.14 points per game.
| Comparison | Minnesota | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 7–1–0 |
| Power rank | 30 | 14 |
| Elo rank | 35 | 12 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 26.57 | 33.63 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -5.456 | +7.924 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 20.14 | 12.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.711 | +19.390 |
Minnesota’s path to victory: Lean on its respectable raw scoring defense and produce a far more efficient offense than the adjusted figure to keep Indiana from controlling the game.
Indiana’s path to victory: Turn its defense into a long-drive requirement and let the offense build separation without giving Minnesota extra possessions.
Arizona State at BYU
Saturday, October 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Provo, Utah · LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU brings positive adjusted scoring on both sides. Arizona State must reverse a -7.494 defensive adjustment despite a nearly 31-point raw offense.
| Comparison | Arizona State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–3–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 57 | 16 |
| Elo rank | 60 | 15 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 30.86 | 33.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.609 | +4.433 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 29.86 | 18.57 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -7.494 | +11.200 |
Arizona State’s path to victory: Make its offense finish better than its modest adjusted mark and keep BYU from creating repeated favorable scoring situations.
BYU’s path to victory: Apply the defensive gulf to force Arizona State off its raw scoring pace, then use a steady offense to widen the possession margin.
Utah at Cincinnati
Saturday, October 31 · 3:45 PM ET · Cincinnati, Ohio · Nippert Stadium
Utah’s 14.57 points allowed and +8.367 adjusted defense lead the matchup, though Cincinnati’s +6.372 adjusted offense is a genuine test.
| Comparison | Utah | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 7–0–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 11 | 33 |
| Elo rank | 11 | 34 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 37.43 | 35.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.383 | +6.372 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 14.57 | 26.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +8.367 | +1.500 |
Utah’s path to victory: Make Cincinnati’s productive offense earn long drives and preserve enough offensive efficiency to use the defensive advantage.
Cincinnati’s path to victory: Keep its adjusted offense close to Utah’s standard and create enough stops to prevent Utah’s 37.43-point attack from setting the game’s terms.
Virginia at Wake Forest
Saturday, October 31 · 3:45 PM ET · Winston-Salem, North Carolina · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest carries advantages in both scoring units, but Virginia’s +7.862 adjusted defense is close enough to demand disciplined finishing.
| Comparison | Virginia | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–4–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 65 | 17 |
| Elo rank | 69 | 16 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 28.25 | 37.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -6.076 | +6.300 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 19.63 | 19.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +7.862 | +8.648 |
Virginia’s path to victory: Use its near-peer defensive adjustment to keep Wake Forest from breaking open the game, then rise substantially above the negative offensive baseline.
Wake Forest’s path to victory: Match a productive offense with its small defensive-adjustment edge and avoid giving Virginia easy scoring opportunities.
Nevada at UCLA
Saturday, October 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Pasadena, California · Rose Bowl
UCLA is unbeaten and has the stronger defense by a large margin. Nevada’s 22.00 raw points allowed is more competitive than its negative adjusted-defense rating.
| Comparison | Nevada | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–4–0 | 7–0–0 |
| Power rank | 112 | 9 |
| Elo rank | 111 | 7 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 26.29 | 34.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.828 | +4.758 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 22.00 | 15.29 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -3.017 | +9.703 |
Nevada’s path to victory: Translate its decent raw points allowed into better matchup-adjusted defense and make UCLA’s offense work on every possession.
UCLA’s path to victory: Let the +9.703 adjusted defense control Nevada’s scoring opportunities and turn its modest offensive edge into a manageable lead.
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Saturday, October 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Norman, Oklahoma · Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
South Carolina’s offense is markedly stronger by the available scoring metrics; Oklahoma counters with a +11.571 adjusted defense and only 17.71 points allowed.
| Comparison | South Carolina | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–3–0 | 4–3–0 |
| Power rank | 15 | 20 |
| Elo rank | 17 | 20 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 36.14 | 21.57 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +9.787 | -1.610 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 25.29 | 17.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +2.013 | +11.571 |
South Carolina’s path to victory: Keep the offense from being reduced to Oklahoma’s defensive standard and avoid a field-position game that makes the Sooners’ low-scoring identity viable.
Oklahoma’s path to victory: Make its defense the game’s central unit, hold South Carolina down, and ask the offense only to exceed its current adjusted baseline.
Mississippi State at Texas
Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Austin, Texas · Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium
The offenses are nearly even in adjusted scoring, but Texas’s +15.824 adjusted defense gives the Longhorns the strongest available separation.
| Comparison | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–3–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 18 | 6 |
| Elo rank | 19 | 6 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 30.00 | 30.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +8.090 | +8.086 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 27.71 | 19.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.726 | +15.824 |
Mississippi State’s path to victory: Keep its offense at its strong adjusted level against Texas’s defense and make the raw-points-allowed gap irrelevant through possession discipline.
Texas’s path to victory: Translate the defensive edge into stalled drives, then avoid needing a major offensive breakthrough in what the scoring data calls an even attack matchup.
Ohio State at USC
Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles, California · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Ohio State has advantages on both sides, particularly 13.43 points allowed and +12.105 adjusted defense. USC’s +10.808 adjusted offense makes that defense work for every stop.
| Comparison | Ohio State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 6–2–0 |
| Power rank | 7 | 45 |
| Elo rank | 3 | 45 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 39.29 | 32.75 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +14.871 | +10.808 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 13.43 | 25.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +12.105 | +0.312 |
Ohio State’s path to victory: Trust the two-way scoring profile, especially on defense, and deny USC the explosive finish quality its offense has earned.
USC’s path to victory: Keep the offense playing above benchmark against Ohio State’s strongest unit and use enough defensive improvement to prevent a high-scoring chase.
Miami (FL) at North Carolina
Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Chapel Hill, North Carolina · Kenan Memorial Stadium
Miami arrives with the slate’s best power and Elo ranks, 49.00 points per game and a +19.372 adjusted offense. North Carolina’s 20.86 points allowed supplies a more resilient raw defensive test than the rank gap suggests.
| Comparison | Miami (FL) | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 7–0–0 | 4–3–0 |
| Power rank | 1 | 41 |
| Elo rank | 1 | 40 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 49.00 | 24.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +19.372 | +2.189 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 15.29 | 20.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.039 | +2.289 |
Miami’s path to victory: Turn the largest offensive edge in this preview into efficient scores without conceding the short fields that would let North Carolina shrink the game.
North Carolina’s path to victory: Keep Miami closer to the 20.86-points-allowed defensive context than its 49-point average, then find a much stronger-than-usual offensive finish.
Missouri at Arkansas
Saturday, October 31 · 7:45 PM ET · Fayetteville, Arkansas · Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Missouri’s +10.983 adjusted defense is the clear unit advantage. Arkansas must improve on a -3.272 adjusted offense to counter it.
| Comparison | Missouri | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 3–4–0 |
| Power rank | 19 | 50 |
| Elo rank | 21 | 54 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 31.14 | 21.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.867 | -3.272 |
| Defense | ||
| Points allowed — per game | 19.57 | 26.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.983 | +0.811 |
Missouri’s path to victory: Make the defensive mismatch dictate field position and let an offense with a small positive adjustment avoid handing Arkansas a lower-scoring route.
Arkansas’s path to victory: Turn its defense into enough disruptive possessions to offset Missouri’s edge, then produce its best adjusted offensive performance of the season.
Frozen data and schedule notes
The frozen source set is the local Week 8 FBS power rankings, Elo ratings, and adjusted scoring table. All 25 selected teams are accounted for above: 20 play, while Alabama, LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and Houston have verified byes. Every opponent in the 15 previews is an FBS team with matching local power, Elo and adjusted-scoring data; no FCS ranking convention or unsupported statistic is substituted.