2026 NFL Week 10 Preview: Tale of the Tape for Every Game

Green Bay’s passing attack faces Minnesota’s coverage, Seattle’s coverage tests Las Vegas’s all new passing attack, and San Francisco gets a promising rushing matchup in Dallas. The fourteen-game slate also takes New England and Detroit to Munich before Pittsburgh and Cincinnati meet Sunday night.

The paths to victory are my opinions based on team statistics. I have not built a game-prediction model yet; these are not projected scores or win probabilities. Injuries, lineup changes and weather are not incorporated.

Reading the tale of the tape

Use Unit, Category and Measure to switch the vertical charts between offense and defense, scoring and yardage, and per-game or adjusted comparisons. Hover over a bar or focus it with the keyboard for the exact value. Records and ranks remain visible; expand View all matchup data for the full table. Each chart has its own scale, shared by the two teams.

Points and yardage are per-game averages. Rushing and passing averages divide source totals by games played. Adjusted figures are per-game differences from an opponent benchmark; higher is better on offense and defense. Positive offense means producing above the benchmark; positive defense means holding opponents below it. A +10.00 adjusted defensive passing figure means holding opponents 10 passing yards per game below their benchmark, not allowing 10 yards. Lower raw points and yards allowed are better on defense. Derived adjusted total yards add the displayed adjusted rushing and passing figures; rounding can affect the last decimal.

The Week 10 schedule was checked November 12. All kickoff times are Eastern Standard Time and remain subject to change. Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye. New England–Detroit is the neutral-site game in Munich, with Detroit designated home. There are no Saturday games.

Washington at NY Giants

Thursday, November 12 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Washington has a rushing opening against New York’s −24.05 adjusted run defense, while the Giants’ +50.60 pass defense makes the aerial route less inviting.

How Washington can win: Keep the run involved to create manageable downs and avoid repeatedly challenging New York’s strongest unit. Washington must improve its −30.04 pass defense so a Giants passing offense below benchmark cannot find easy scoring opportunities.

How NY Giants can win: Test Washington’s coverage with early-down passes rather than forcing the run into its positive run defense. New York must also close rushing lanes so the Commanders have to depend on passing against the Giants’ coverage strength.

New England at Detroit

Sunday, November 15 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Munich, FC Bayern Munich Stadium (neutral venue; Detroit designated home)

New England’s +40.10 adjusted passing meets Detroit’s −46.96 pass defense. Detroit brings its own +46.27 passing offense against a slightly negative Patriots coverage unit.

How New England can win: Use the passing matchup to turn efficient drives into touchdowns, with the positive rushing attack keeping Detroit from concentrating entirely on coverage. New England must prevent Detroit’s passing production from becoming quick scores that erase those gains.

How Detroit can win: Attack New England’s weaker defensive phase through the air and use the run selectively against its +16.05 run defense. Detroit needs fewer coverage breakdowns of its own; its scoring advantage is difficult to sustain if the Patriots move freely through the air.

Buffalo at NY Jets

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Buffalo’s +40.22 adjusted rushing meets the Jets’ −21.41 run defense. New York’s +37.11 pass defense is stronger, making the ground game the more promising starting point for Buffalo.

How Buffalo can win: Lean on the run and use favorable downs to keep throws selective against strong coverage. Buffalo should contain the Jets’ below-benchmark rushing attack and make their −25.45 passing offense sustain scoring drives.

How NY Jets can win: Improve the run defense enough to force Buffalo to challenge the coverage. New York then needs efficient passing gains against Buffalo’s −13.94 pass defense, but its own poor passing output means that opportunity requires better execution.

Carolina at New Orleans

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Carolina’s +41.43 adjusted passing meets New Orleans’s −29.11 pass defense. Both teams allow more than 27 points per game, so defensive stops could be hard-earned.

How Carolina can win: Build around the passing matchup and test the Saints’ weaker run defense without assuming Carolina’s own ground game will dominate. The Panthers must limit New Orleans’s positive passing attack and make its −22.53 rushing offense do more of the work.

How New Orleans can win: Use the +18.32 passing offense to stay productive while testing Carolina’s −20.99 run defense. New Orleans needs to reduce easy completions conceded and finish its own best possessions with touchdowns to keep pace.

Houston at Cleveland

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Houston scores 26.12 points per game against Cleveland’s 17.89, led by +50.17 adjusted passing. Cleveland’s coverage is modestly positive, while its run defense is −15.24.

How Houston can win: Stay patient through the air and use the run selectively to prevent Cleveland from sitting on the pass. Houston’s −37.47 rushing offense makes that secondary route uncertain; defensively, contain the run and avoid helping the Browns through coverage mistakes.

How Cleveland can win: Find efficient completions against Houston’s −18.17 pass defense and convert those opportunities into touchdowns. Cleveland needs to make Houston sustain long passing drives while improving its run defense enough that the Texans cannot escape their main offensive weakness.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Jacksonville scores 28.62 points and allows 15.12 per game. Tennessee’s negative defensive figures in both phases offer openings, but the Jaguars’ yardage offense is much closer to benchmark than their scoring suggests.

How Jacksonville can win: Take the passing opportunities against Tennessee’s −48.01 coverage and keep finishing drives efficiently. Jacksonville must contain the Titans’ weak rushing offense and prevent its own negative pass defense from supplying Tennessee an easy route back into the game.

How Tennessee can win: Test Jacksonville’s −14.09 pass defense on manageable downs instead of repeatedly running into its stronger unit. Tennessee’s −47.68 passing offense must improve to exploit that opening, and its defense needs to force Jacksonville to settle for fewer touchdowns.

Kansas City at Atlanta

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Atlanta’s +37.48 adjusted rushing is its offensive strength; its passing offense is −40.21. Kansas City is positive in both offensive phases and allows 17.88 points per game.

How Kansas City can win: Keep both offensive options available against a Falcons defense close to benchmark in each yardage phase. Kansas City needs to limit Atlanta’s ground game so the Falcons must rely on their struggling passing offense, while protecting its own weaker coverage.

How Atlanta can win: Use the run to create easy passing situations against Kansas City’s −16.20 pass defense. Atlanta must turn those chances into touchdowns and make the Chiefs earn long drives, rather than expect a one-dimensional offense to win a scoring race.

Miami at Indianapolis

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Both passing offenses are deeply negative after adjustment. Miami’s +6.75 rushing gets a possible opening against Indianapolis’s −26.14 run defense, while Miami’s +26.20 pass defense is a clear strength.

How Miami can win: Run efficiently against Indianapolis’s weakest defensive phase and avoid asking the −59.47 passing offense to carry the game. Contain the Colts’ modestly positive ground attack so they have to challenge Miami’s stronger coverage.

How Indianapolis can win: Create manageable downs with the +9.07 rushing offense and keep the passing assignment selective against Miami’s strong coverage. Indianapolis must improve its run defense so the Dolphins cannot control the game without exposing their own passing weakness.

Minnesota at Green Bay

Sunday, November 15 · 1 p.m. ET

Green Bay’s +71.42 adjusted passing meets Minnesota’s +61.88 pass defense. Minnesota scores only 18.25 points per game, with passing offense at −75.97.

How Minnesota can win: Make Green Bay sustain drives through contested passing situations and keep its −49.49 rushing offense from finding an unexpected escape. Minnesota needs manageable offensive downs and touchdown finishes; its near-benchmark rushing attack faces a positive Packers run defense.

How Green Bay can win: Stay patient with the passing game against Minnesota’s coverage strength rather than forcing risky throws. Green Bay should contain the Vikings on the ground and make their struggling passing offense repeatedly produce first downs.

LA Rams at Arizona

Sunday, November 15 · 4:05 p.m. ET

The Rams are positive in both offensive and defensive yardage phases. Arizona’s +13.00 adjusted passing is its strongest offensive asset, but its defense allows 28.33 points per game.

How LA Rams can win: Use the +10.70 rushing offense against Arizona’s −8.15 run defense to support the passing game. The Rams must contain Arizona’s below-benchmark rushing attack and make the Cardinals sustain drives against positive coverage.

How Arizona can win: Find patient passing gains without assuming the Rams’ +16.62 coverage will give up easy scores. Arizona must limit the run well enough to avoid letting Los Angeles choose freely between its two positive offensive phases, then finish its own scoring chances.

Seattle at Las Vegas

Sunday, November 15 · 4:05 p.m. ET

Las Vegas’s +47.44 adjusted passing faces Seattle’s +73.29 pass defense. The Raiders’ −40.86 rushing offense also meets resistance from Seattle’s +33.07 run defense.

How Seattle can win: Test Las Vegas’s −33.13 run defense and use those gains to simplify a slightly negative passing attack. Seattle should keep the Raiders from finding rushing relief and force their passing offense to earn repeated first downs against strong coverage.

How Las Vegas can win: Find patient completions against Seattle’s coverage and turn scarce scoring opportunities into touchdowns. Las Vegas needs better run defense so a modest Seahawks rushing offense cannot control possession while the Raiders struggle to establish balance.

San Francisco at Dallas

Sunday, November 15 · 4:25 p.m. ET

San Francisco’s +22.36 adjusted rushing meets Dallas’s −41.83 run defense. Dallas’s +41.92 passing is its clearest response against a 49ers pass defense almost exactly at benchmark.

How San Francisco can win: Build around the rushing matchup and use the positive passing attack to punish overcommitment. San Francisco must prevent Dallas’s passing game from answering those sustained possessions with quick touchdowns.

How Dallas can win: Use the passing game to stay productive instead of forcing a negative rushing offense into San Francisco’s +32.18 run defense. Dallas must close rushing lanes and create difficult downs; allowing the 49ers to dictate the pace would undermine the Cowboys’ best offensive route.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Sunday, November 15 · 8:20 p.m. ET

Cincinnati scores 30.00 points per game behind +64.50 adjusted passing. Pittsburgh’s +34.04 run defense is strong, but its −12.21 pass defense faces the Bengals’ best unit.

How Pittsburgh can win: Use early-down throws against Cincinnati’s −37.36 pass defense to avoid relying only on a near-benchmark rushing attack. Pittsburgh’s own passing offense is −11.43, so execution must improve; defensively, limit passing explosives and force the Bengals to finish long drives.

How Cincinnati can win: Lean on the passing game rather than repeatedly attacking Pittsburgh’s strongest unit on the ground. Cincinnati needs better coverage of its own so the Steelers cannot escape their offensive limitations and keep pace through easy completions.

LA Chargers at Baltimore

Monday, November 16 · 8:15 p.m. ET

Baltimore’s +17.56 adjusted rushing meets the Chargers’ −14.61 run defense. Both passing offenses are strongly negative, while Los Angeles’s +16.41 pass defense is its strongest defensive phase.

How LA Chargers can win: Use manageable passing situations to test Baltimore’s −10.63 coverage, while recognizing the Chargers’ own passing offense is −42.67. Los Angeles must stop Baltimore’s ground game and make the Ravens depend on their weaker aerial attack.

How Baltimore can win: Keep the rushing attack central and avoid forcing throws into the Chargers’ stronger coverage unit. Baltimore should contain Los Angeles on the ground and make its struggling passing offense carry drives, while reducing easy completions conceded.

Ratings and statistical sources

These comparisons use my Power ratings, Elo ratings, offense statistics and defense statistics, all stamped November 10 at 20:46:00 through Week 9. Those pages change during the season; this preview preserves that snapshot.