Buffalo’s scoring offense meets Minnesota’s stingy defense on Monday night. Before that, Cincinnati brings its passing attack to Madrid, and Tampa Bay’s run-heavy statistical profile gets a demanding test in Chicago. Here is the full fifteen-game slate.
The paths to victory are my statistical opinions, not projected scores or model-generated probabilities. I have not built a game-prediction model yet. Injuries, lineup changes and weather are not incorporated.
Game comparisons
Use Unit, Category and Measure to switch the vertical charts between offense and defense, scoring and yardage, and per-game or adjusted comparisons. Hover over a bar or focus it with the keyboard for the exact value. Records and ranks remain visible; expand View all matchup data for the full table. Each chart has its own scale, shared by the two teams.
All figures are frozen through Week 8, from the November 3, 2026, 1:40:44 p.m. Eastern source update. Lower Power and Elo ranks mean higher league positions. Elo carries information forward from the previous season.
Points and yardage are per-game averages. Rushing and passing averages divide source totals by games played. Adjusted figures are per-game differences from an opponent benchmark; higher is better on offense and defense. Positive offense means producing above the benchmark; positive defense means holding opponents below it. Lower raw points and yards allowed are better on defense. Derived adjusted total yards add the displayed adjusted rushing and passing figures; rounding can affect the last decimal.
The Week 9 schedule was checked November 5. All kickoff times are Eastern Standard Time and remain subject to change. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye. Cincinnati–Atlanta is the neutral-site game in Madrid, with Atlanta designated home. There are no Saturday games.
Jacksonville at Baltimore
Thursday, November 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET
Jacksonville scores 28.00 points per game and allows 15.86, but its adjusted pass defense is −42.20. Baltimore has an opening through the air despite its own −30.15 passing offense.
| Comparison | Jacksonville | Baltimore |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 4–4–0 |
| Power rank | 5 | 22 |
| Elo rank | 2 | 20 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 28.00 | 22.38 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +5.51 | -3.20 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 122.86 | 133.50 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +4.68 | +7.60 |
| Passing yards — per game | 227.43 | 205.12 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +3.70 | -30.15 |
| Total yards — per game | 350.29 | 338.62 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +8.38 | -22.55 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 15.86 | 25.38 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +6.72 | -1.87 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 77.43 | 102.75 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +23.12 | +5.12 |
| Passing yards — per game | 253.86 | 228.25 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -42.20 | -10.82 |
| Total yards — per game | 331.29 | 331.00 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -19.08 | -5.70 |
How Jacksonville can win: Use the modestly positive passing attack against Baltimore’s weaker coverage and finish drives. Contain the Ravens’ run with the +23.12 run defense, then prevent a struggling passing offense from exploiting Jacksonville’s main defensive weakness.
How Baltimore can win: Find efficient early-down completions against Jacksonville’s coverage instead of repeatedly running into its stronger unit. Baltimore needs touchdown finishes and fewer easy passing gains conceded to keep pace with the Jaguars.
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Sunday, November 8 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Madrid, Santiago Bernabéu (neutral venue; Atlanta designated home)
Cincinnati’s +63.25 adjusted passing faces an Atlanta pass defense almost exactly at benchmark. Atlanta’s strongest offensive phase is rushing at +35.17.
| Comparison | Cincinnati | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 3–5–0 |
| Power rank | 12 | 18 |
| Elo rank | 6 | 21 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.43 | 21.38 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +8.64 | -0.98 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 80.29 | 134.75 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -19.37 | +35.17 |
| Passing yards — per game | 288.43 | 188.38 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +63.25 | -32.33 |
| Total yards — per game | 368.71 | 323.12 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +43.88 | +2.84 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 22.57 | 23.62 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.69 | +0.42 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 122.29 | 118.25 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -1.12 | +0.34 |
| Passing yards — per game | 237.71 | 223.38 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -48.37 | +0.17 |
| Total yards — per game | 360.00 | 341.62 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -49.49 | +0.51 |
How Cincinnati can win: Make the passing advantage count with sustained touchdown drives. Cincinnati must limit Atlanta’s rushing success so the Falcons have to rely on their −32.33 passing offense, while avoiding coverage breakdowns of its own.
How Atlanta can win: Use the run to create easier passing downs, then test Cincinnati’s −48.37 pass defense. Atlanta needs to turn that opportunity into points and force the Bengals to earn long drives rather than quick passing scores.
Cleveland at New Orleans
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Cleveland scores 17.38 points per game; New Orleans allows 27.71. Both Saints defensive yardage measures are negative, giving the Browns a chance to improve.
| Comparison | Cleveland | New Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–3–0 | 2–5–0 |
| Power rank | 14 | 21 |
| Elo rank | 18 | 26 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 17.38 | 23.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -4.76 | +0.74 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 97.62 | 86.00 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -5.05 | -31.20 |
| Passing yards — per game | 204.25 | 229.71 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -23.10 | +13.50 |
| Total yards — per game | 301.88 | 315.71 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -28.15 | -17.70 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.62 | 27.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.33 | -4.57 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 126.88 | 139.43 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -6.80 | -24.73 |
| Passing yards — per game | 196.62 | 233.29 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +8.77 | -17.60 |
| Total yards — per game | 323.50 | 372.71 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +1.97 | -42.33 |
How Cleveland can win: Use a balanced approach against New Orleans’s weak run and pass defenses. Cleveland’s own offense is below benchmark in both phases, so execution must improve. Contain the Saints’ passing game and make their −31.20 rushing offense carry more of the workload.
How New Orleans can win: Build around the +13.50 passing offense while using the run selectively against Cleveland’s slightly negative run defense. New Orleans needs to stop giving up easy rushing gains and make Cleveland depend on its weaker passing attack.
Dallas at Indianapolis
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Indianapolis’s +19.43 adjusted rushing meets Dallas’s −47.94 run defense. Dallas has the stronger passing offense and averages 27.38 points to the Colts’ 20.12.
| Comparison | Dallas | Indianapolis |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–5–0 | 2–6–0 |
| Power rank | 25 | 29 |
| Elo rank | 17 | 28 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 27.38 | 20.12 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +3.76 | -0.78 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 94.12 | 116.50 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -17.47 | +19.43 |
| Passing yards — per game | 247.88 | 174.62 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +31.30 | -62.51 |
| Total yards — per game | 342.00 | 291.12 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +13.83 | -43.08 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 26.62 | 27.75 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -5.51 | -5.86 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 152.75 | 131.75 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -47.94 | -17.46 |
| Passing yards — per game | 232.62 | 211.75 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -24.45 | -1.24 |
| Total yards — per game | 385.38 | 343.50 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -72.39 | -18.70 |
How Dallas can win: Use the passing game to create an early scoring cushion and make Indianapolis throw more often. Dallas must improve its run defense enough that the Colts cannot control the game without exposing their −62.51 passing offense.
How Indianapolis can win: Attack Dallas on the ground and use that success to simplify the passing game. The Colts must finish drives with touchdowns and limit Dallas’s passing gains; merely extending possession will not solve their 27.75 points allowed per game.
Denver at Carolina
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Carolina’s +44.41 adjusted passing is the clearest offensive strength in this matchup. Denver has a potential rushing opening against Carolina’s −24.70 run defense.
| Comparison | Denver | Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–2–0 | 3–4–0 |
| Power rank | 6 | 16 |
| Elo rank | 10 | 23 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.50 | 25.43 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.45 | +3.68 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 92.62 | 102.00 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -9.87 | -5.97 |
| Passing yards — per game | 180.38 | 261.71 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -33.85 | +44.41 |
| Total yards — per game | 273.00 | 363.71 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -43.72 | +38.44 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 20.62 | 27.57 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +3.21 | -6.15 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 127.88 | 140.71 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -7.20 | -24.70 |
| Passing yards — per game | 227.38 | 208.86 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +5.21 | +1.25 |
| Total yards — per game | 355.25 | 349.57 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -1.99 | -23.45 |
How Denver can win: Use the run to stay out of difficult passing situations, recognizing Denver’s own rushing offense is −9.87. Limit Carolina’s passing gains and turn the best offensive possessions into touchdowns rather than asking a struggling passing attack to chase the game.
How Carolina can win: Lean on the passing game while testing Denver’s slightly negative run defense. Carolina must close rushing lanes so the Broncos have to rely on their −33.85 passing offense. Better defensive finishes are needed from a team allowing 27.57 points.
Detroit at Miami
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Detroit scores 29.00 points per game behind +62.36 adjusted passing. Miami’s +20.30 pass defense offers resistance, while Detroit’s −53.76 coverage gives Miami an opportunity of its own.
| Comparison | Detroit | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–2–0 | 1–6–0 |
| Power rank | 7 | 27 |
| Elo rank | 8 | 29 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.00 | 16.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +5.73 | -4.95 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 131.43 | 123.29 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +11.32 | +12.88 |
| Passing yards — per game | 264.00 | 166.71 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +62.36 | -50.70 |
| Total yards — per game | 395.43 | 290.00 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +73.68 | -37.82 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 25.71 | 25.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -2.28 | -1.27 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 96.57 | 113.14 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +7.87 | -4.91 |
| Passing yards — per game | 276.57 | 221.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -53.76 | +20.30 |
| Total yards — per game | 373.14 | 334.14 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -45.89 | +15.39 |
How Detroit can win: Use the positive rushing attack against Miami’s weaker run defense to keep the passing game flexible. Detroit must avoid helping Miami’s −50.70 passing offense escape its struggles with easy completions and quick scores.
How Miami can win: Create manageable downs with the run, then take passing opportunities against Detroit’s coverage. Miami must improve its own passing execution to use that opening and make the Lions sustain long drives rather than trade quick touchdowns.
LA Rams at Washington
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
The Rams’ +43.92 adjusted passing meets Washington’s −37.62 pass defense. Washington’s passing offense is −10.02 and faces a Rams defense at +29.88.
| Comparison | LA Rams | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–4–0 | 2–4–1 |
| Power rank | 17 | 28 |
| Elo rank | 13 | 24 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 24.25 | 22.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.59 | -1.40 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 125.50 | 126.57 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +5.38 | +4.47 |
| Passing yards — per game | 258.88 | 200.57 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +43.92 | -10.02 |
| Total yards — per game | 384.38 | 327.14 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +49.30 | -5.55 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +2.77 | -4.19 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 109.25 | 99.14 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -0.49 | +7.67 |
| Passing yards — per game | 191.88 | 243.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +29.88 | -37.62 |
| Total yards — per game | 301.12 | 342.14 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +29.39 | -29.95 |
How LA Rams can win: Press the passing matchup and turn yardage into touchdowns. Keep Washington’s run contained so the Commanders must challenge the stronger coverage unit, rather than leaning on their modestly positive rushing offense.
How Washington can win: Use the ground game against a Rams run defense near benchmark to avoid obvious passing downs. Washington’s coverage must reduce easy gains and force the Rams to finish long possessions. The offense needs to reward those stops with touchdowns.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Philadelphia’s −62.50 adjusted passing faces the Giants’ +48.59 pass defense. Both teams have negative rushing offenses and run defenses, making execution on the ground especially consequential.
| Comparison | NY Giants | Philadelphia |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–2–1 | 2–6–0 |
| Power rank | 20 | 30 |
| Elo rank | 16 | 31 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.29 | 17.12 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -2.81 | -7.37 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 116.71 | 88.12 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -4.41 | -26.72 |
| Passing yards — per game | 229.29 | 177.12 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -2.37 | -62.50 |
| Total yards — per game | 346.00 | 265.25 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -6.78 | -89.22 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.00 | 25.25 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.05 | -0.95 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 128.14 | 131.88 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -28.53 | -15.35 |
| Passing yards — per game | 184.86 | 235.38 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +48.59 | -11.09 |
| Total yards — per game | 313.00 | 367.25 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +20.06 | -26.44 |
How NY Giants can win: Test Philadelphia’s −15.35 run defense and use manageable downs to support the passing game. New York must shore up its own −28.53 run defense so the Eagles cannot avoid challenging the Giants’ strongest unit.
How Philadelphia can win: Find rushing gains against New York’s weakest defensive phase, while recognizing Philadelphia’s own rushing offense is −26.72. Keep the Giants from controlling early downs and convert scoring opportunities; the Eagles average only 17.12 points.
NY Jets at Kansas City
Sunday, November 8 · 1 p.m. ET
Kansas City’s +43.69 passing offense faces the Jets’ +38.89 pass defense. The opposite pairing is weaker on both sides: Jets passing at −15.46 against Chiefs coverage at −31.75.
| Comparison | NY Jets | Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 2–6–0 | 5–2–0 |
| Power rank | 24 | 11 |
| Elo rank | 25 | 9 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.25 | 23.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -2.52 | -0.26 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 105.12 | 134.14 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -8.18 | +11.99 |
| Passing yards — per game | 214.88 | 249.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -15.46 | +43.69 |
| Total yards — per game | 320.00 | 383.14 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -23.64 | +55.68 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.50 | 18.71 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -1.21 | +2.29 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 123.62 | 96.29 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -18.01 | +8.15 |
| Passing yards — per game | 194.00 | 222.86 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +38.89 | -31.75 |
| Total yards — per game | 317.62 | 319.14 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +20.88 | -23.60 |
How NY Jets can win: Use early-down passing opportunities against Kansas City’s coverage and finish those drives. The Jets must contain the Chiefs’ +11.99 rushing offense so their strong pass defense has a chance to force difficult third downs.
How Kansas City can win: Test New York’s −18.01 run defense and avoid forcing every possession through its strongest unit. Kansas City needs better coverage of its own to prevent the Jets from using passing gains to keep pace.
Houston at LA Chargers
Sunday, November 8 · 4:05 p.m. ET
Houston’s +23.25 adjusted passing meets the Chargers’ +41.81 pass defense. Houston’s rushing offense is −39.48, while the Chargers score only 14.14 points per game.
| Comparison | Houston | LA Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 2–5–0 | 0–7–0 |
| Power rank | 26 | 31 |
| Elo rank | 22 | 32 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 23.57 | 14.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.23 | -10.78 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 84.71 | 111.14 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -39.48 | -2.47 |
| Passing yards — per game | 253.43 | 177.14 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +23.25 | -44.14 |
| Total yards — per game | 338.14 | 288.29 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -16.23 | -46.61 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 24.29 | 25.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +1.55 | +0.12 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 98.00 | 124.57 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +15.10 | -12.42 |
| Passing yards — per game | 244.00 | 198.43 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -20.20 | +41.81 |
| Total yards — per game | 342.00 | 323.00 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -5.10 | +29.39 |
How Houston can win: Stay patient through the air against strong coverage and test the Chargers’ weaker run defense without assuming Houston’s struggling ground game will dominate. Make Los Angeles depend on its −44.14 passing offense by containing the run.
How LA Chargers can win: Take selective passing opportunities against Houston’s −20.20 coverage while avoiding long-yardage situations. The Chargers need touchdowns from their best drives and must keep Houston’s passing attack from turning contested possessions into quick scores.
Las Vegas at San Francisco
Sunday, November 8 · 4:25 p.m. ET
Las Vegas’s +55.91 adjusted passing meets a slightly negative San Francisco pass defense. San Francisco has a clear rushing opportunity: +17.70 offense against the Raiders’ −30.72 defense.
| Comparison | Las Vegas | San Francisco |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 4–4–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 19 | 2 |
| Elo rank | 19 | 5 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 27.62 | 28.14 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.79 | +4.96 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 77.25 | 127.43 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -40.16 | +17.70 |
| Passing yards — per game | 265.12 | 244.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +55.91 | +36.96 |
| Total yards — per game | 342.38 | 371.43 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +15.75 | +54.66 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 28.75 | 19.86 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -7.21 | +2.08 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 146.38 | 89.00 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -30.72 | +32.75 |
| Passing yards — per game | 235.50 | 210.29 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -14.08 | -5.33 |
| Total yards — per game | 381.88 | 299.29 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -44.80 | +27.42 |
How Las Vegas can win: Use the passing game to keep pace rather than forcing a −40.16 rushing offense into San Francisco’s +32.75 run defense. The Raiders need better run fits and touchdown finishes to avoid allowing the 49ers to dictate possession.
How San Francisco can win: Run efficiently against Las Vegas’s weakest defensive phase and use the positive passing attack to keep the defense honest. San Francisco must prevent explosive passing gains so its balanced offense can establish control.
Arizona at Seattle
Sunday, November 8 · 4:25 p.m. ET
Seattle is positive against both rushing and passing, with +73.10 adjusted pass defense. Arizona’s +16.29 passing is its strongest offensive phase, making this a difficult matchup for the Cardinals.
| Comparison | Arizona | Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–5–0 | 4–4–0 |
| Power rank | 23 | 13 |
| Elo rank | 27 | 14 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.88 | 23.12 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -0.93 | +0.75 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 109.25 | 109.62 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -7.03 | +5.56 |
| Passing yards — per game | 223.75 | 222.25 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +16.29 | +3.01 |
| Total yards — per game | 333.00 | 331.88 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +9.26 | +8.57 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 29.75 | 19.88 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -6.85 | +3.28 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 122.12 | 94.00 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -9.73 | +32.24 |
| Passing yards — per game | 220.50 | 156.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +8.39 | +73.10 |
| Total yards — per game | 342.62 | 250.00 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -1.34 | +105.34 |
How Arizona can win: Find patient passing gains and avoid wasting early downs with a below-benchmark run game against Seattle’s +32.24 run defense. Arizona must improve on 29.75 points allowed and force Seattle to earn its scoring opportunities.
How Seattle can win: Test Arizona’s −9.73 run defense and keep the passing game efficient. Contain the Cardinals on the ground and make them repeatedly challenge Seattle’s coverage. Touchdown finishes would give the defensive advantage more weight.
Green Bay at New England
Sunday, November 8 · 4:25 p.m. ET
Green Bay’s offense is sharply divided: +65.48 adjusted passing and −61.96 rushing. New England is positive in both offensive and defensive yardage phases.
| Comparison | Green Bay | New England |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 5–3–0 | 5–3–0 |
| Power rank | 10 | 9 |
| Elo rank | 15 | 11 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 21.38 | 23.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -1.17 | +0.88 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 60.62 | 123.12 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | -61.96 | +23.40 |
| Passing yards — per game | 271.00 | 244.12 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +65.48 | +28.01 |
| Total yards — per game | 331.62 | 367.25 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +3.52 | +51.41 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 20.50 | 20.25 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.19 | +5.32 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 110.88 | 92.62 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +16.35 | +30.88 |
| Passing yards — per game | 204.00 | 217.25 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +11.44 | +7.21 |
| Total yards — per game | 314.88 | 309.88 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +27.79 | +38.09 |
How Green Bay can win: Build around the pass rather than forcing the run into New England’s +30.88 run defense. Green Bay needs to translate passing production into more than its 21.38-point average and prevent the Patriots’ balanced offense from controlling possession.
How New England can win: Keep both offensive phases involved against a Packers defense positive in each. New England must limit passing explosives and make Green Bay sustain drives without a reliable ground game, then finish its own scoring chances.
Tampa Bay at Chicago
Sunday, November 8 · 8:20 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay’s +53.88 adjusted rushing and −90.30 passing make its offensive dependence clear. Chicago’s +20.38 run defense meets that strength, while the Bears are positive in both offensive phases.
| Comparison | Tampa Bay | Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 3–5–0 | 6–2–0 |
| Power rank | 15 | 4 |
| Elo rank | 12 | 1 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 22.25 | 26.75 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +0.67 | +5.80 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 168.62 | 150.75 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +53.88 | +40.12 |
| Passing yards — per game | 131.38 | 236.50 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -90.30 | +42.79 |
| Total yards — per game | 300.00 | 387.25 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -36.42 | +82.91 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 18.88 | 20.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +4.85 | +1.81 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 80.00 | 86.75 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +23.09 | +20.38 |
| Passing yards — per game | 205.88 | 219.00 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +27.66 | -1.15 |
| Total yards — per game | 285.88 | 305.75 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +50.75 | +19.23 |
How Tampa Bay can win: Use the run to create manageable passing downs and improve through the air against Chicago’s near-benchmark pass defense. Tampa Bay cannot assume the ground game alone will suffice; its defense must also limit Chicago’s balanced production.
How Chicago can win: Contain the run and force Tampa Bay to rely on its weakest phase. Chicago should keep both offensive options available against a defense positive in both, using patient drives and touchdown finishes to make its greater balance count.
Buffalo at Minnesota
Monday, November 9 · 8:15 p.m. ET
Buffalo scores 33.29 points per game; Minnesota allows 13.29. The Bills’ +44.39 rushing may be a more promising route than challenging the Vikings’ +64.83 pass defense.
| Comparison | Buffalo | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W–L–T) | 6–1–0 | 6–1–0 |
| Power rank | 3 | 1 |
| Elo rank | 4 | 3 |
| Offense | ||
| Points — per game | 33.29 | 20.00 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | +10.31 | -4.40 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 148.43 | 113.86 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +44.39 | +6.31 |
| Passing yards — per game | 244.71 | 165.57 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | +19.85 | -67.76 |
| Total yards — per game | 393.14 | 279.43 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | +64.24 | -61.45 |
| Defense | ||
| Points — per game | 25.86 | 13.29 |
| Adjusted scoring — per game | -2.82 | +10.93 |
| Rushing yards — per game | 97.43 | 116.71 |
| Adjusted rushing yards — per game | +17.11 | +3.08 |
| Passing yards — per game | 254.71 | 154.86 |
| Adjusted passing yards — per game | -19.04 | +64.83 |
| Total yards — per game | 352.14 | 271.57 |
| Adjusted total yards — per game (derived) | -1.93 | +67.91 |
How Buffalo can win: Make the ground game central against Minnesota’s modest +3.08 run defense, while using selective passes to prevent crowding at the line. Contain the Vikings’ run and make their −67.76 passing offense sustain drives.
How Minnesota can win: Limit Buffalo’s rushing gains well enough to force more throws into strong coverage. Minnesota must then exploit Buffalo’s −19.04 pass defense despite its own passing struggles. Touchdowns are essential; an offense averaging 20.00 points cannot assume its defense will erase every mistake.
Ratings and statistical sources
These comparisons use my Power ratings, Elo ratings, offense statistics and defense statistics, updated November 3 at 1:40:44 p.m. Eastern through Week 8. Those pages change during the season; this preview preserves that snapshot.