Golden State has the highest power rating, Elo rating, and combined adjusted scoring total among the four remaining teams. Atlanta has the strongest balance between offense and defense. Those are the starting points for two semifinals that ask different questions: can Las Vegas score enough against the league’s best adjusted defense, and can New York overcome another opponent with stronger season-long numbers?
In last week’s first-round preview, I leaned toward Minnesota, Golden State, Las Vegas, and Atlanta. New York’s elimination of Minnesota removed the team that led all three measures. The Liberty are a reminder that a statistical advantage is a reason to favor a team, not a guarantee of advancement. The semifinal matchups are confirmed in the WNBA’s series preview.
The Bracket and the Numbers
No. 2 Golden State faces No. 3 Las Vegas, while No. 4 Atlanta faces No. 8 New York. The semifinals use a best-of-five, 2-2-1 format, with the higher seed hosting Games 1, 2, and, if necessary, 5. See the official WNBA bracket for the schedule and current results.
| Playoff Seed | Team | Record | Power Rank | Power Rating | Elo Rank | Elo Rating | Adj. Offense | Adj. Defense | Adj. Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries | 32–12 | 2 | 102.884 | 2 | 1655.163 | -5.857 | 12.631 | 6.773 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces | 31–13 | 3 | 102.394 | 5 | 1616.124 | 4.326 | 0.895 | 5.221 |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream | 30–14 | 4 | 102.241 | 3 | 1645.885 | 3.956 | 2.514 | 6.470 |
| 8 | New York Liberty | 26–18 | 8 | 101.112 | 6 | 1573.627 | 2.363 | 0.687 | 3.050 |
Sources: my power ratings, Elo ratings, and combined adjusted scoring report. The reports carry an October 3 publication timestamp, but the values above remain the season-end figures used in the first-round preview. They have not been updated to include playoff results. Ranks cover the entire league, not just the remaining teams.
The records shown are regular-season records. As noted last week, the published Elo dataset also includes New York’s 93–85 Commissioner’s Cup final win over Las Vegas. Its records are therefore 27–18 for New York and 31–14 for Las Vegas. I retain the published Elo values rather than recalculate them.
Adjusted offense measures scoring relative to what opponents typically allow. Adjusted defense measures how far a team holds opponents below their usual scoring average, so higher is better on both sides. These are scoring-based measures, not per-100-possession efficiency ratings. Published totals can differ slightly from the sum of the displayed components because of rounding.
Power and Elo ratings use separate scales; their gaps are not predicted point spreads. The reports do not directly adjust for current injuries or home court. My series leans interpret these season-long profiles rather than assign calculated win probabilities.
No. 2 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 3 Las Vegas Aces
Golden State leads 102.884 to 102.394 in power rating, a 0.490 advantage. That is a smaller gap than any of last week’s first-round matchups. The adjacent seeds accurately convey how close these teams are in that measure.
Elo gives Golden State more separation: 1655.163 to 1616.124, a 39.039 advantage, with the Valkyries second in the league and the Aces fifth. Combined adjusted scoring also favors Golden State, 6.773 to 5.221, a 1.552 edge. All three measures point in the same direction, but none of that makes this an easy matchup.
Exceptional defense against a stronger offense
Las Vegas has a 10.183 advantage in adjusted offense, 4.326 to -5.857. The Aces finished second in the league in that category; Golden State finished 14th. Las Vegas has a much stronger baseline for creating points, while the Valkyries’ offense leaves their defense with considerable work to do.
Golden State’s defensive advantage is even larger: 12.631 to 0.895, a difference of 11.736. The Valkyries held opponents roughly 12.6 points below their usual scoring average. That exceptional performance more than offsets their offensive deficit in the combined measure.
This is a tougher offensive opponent for Golden State than Dallas was. The Wings entered the first round at 2.294 in adjusted offense; Las Vegas is 2.032 higher. The Aces also have the stronger combined total, 5.221 to Dallas’ 3.954. Golden State’s defensive identity remains its best argument, but the margin for an unproductive stretch on offense is narrower against this opponent.
What decides the series
For Las Vegas, the opportunity is to make Golden State’s offense as important as its defense. If the Aces can get enough of their normal scoring production to force the Valkyries to answer repeatedly, Golden State’s weakest unit becomes central to the outcome. Las Vegas does not have to overwhelm that defense to put pressure on an offense that finished well below its opponents’ usual allowance.
Golden State needs the opposite pattern: hold Las Vegas far enough below its offensive baseline that modest scoring is sufficient. Its defense has demonstrated that ability across the season. The risk is asking it to compensate for too many empty offensive possessions in several games of a longer series.
My lean: Golden State, narrowly. Power, Elo, and adjusted scoring all favor the Valkyries, and they have home-court advantage. But the 0.490 power gap and the enormous difference between the offenses make Las Vegas a credible threat. This is the closer semifinal in all three overall measures.
No. 4 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 8 New York Liberty
Atlanta leads 102.241 to 101.112 in power rating, a 1.129 advantage. Elo agrees, 1645.885 to 1573.627, a 72.258 gap. The Dream rank third in Elo while the Liberty rank sixth, so that measure sees New York more favorably than its eighth-place power ranking does.
The largest separation in the scoring comparison is also here. Atlanta leads 6.470 to 3.050 in combined adjusted scoring, a 3.420 advantage. That is more than twice the adjusted-total gap between Golden State and Las Vegas.
Atlanta has an advantage on both ends
Atlanta’s adjusted offense is 3.956, compared with New York’s 2.363, a 1.593 edge. Its adjusted defense is 2.514, compared with the Liberty’s 0.687, a further 1.827 advantage. Unlike the other semifinal, neither team has to trade a major weakness on one end for an exceptional strength on the other. Both are positive in both categories, but Atlanta is better in each.
That balance gives the Dream more than one route to controlling a game. If New York holds Atlanta below its usual offensive production, the Dream still have the stronger defensive baseline. If the Liberty’s offense performs well, Atlanta has its own positive scoring profile to answer. New York needs to outperform at least one side of its season-long comparison substantially enough to offset the other.
The matchup is nevertheless less daunting statistically than the one New York faced in the first round. Minnesota’s power-rating advantage over the Liberty was 2.043, its Elo edge was 90.110, and its adjusted-total edge was 4.058. Atlanta’s advantages are smaller in all three. That does not make the Liberty the favorite, but it is a good reason to avoid dismissing their chances on the basis of seed alone.
What decides the series
New York’s clearest opportunity is to raise its defensive performance. Atlanta’s offensive advantage is meaningful without being overwhelming. Reducing it would allow the Liberty’s own positive offensive rating to keep games competitive, rather than asking their scoring to overcome disadvantages on both ends.
For Atlanta, the key is making the Liberty sustain that improvement. The Dream do not need an extreme scoring or defensive performance to justify their statistical edge; they need both units to contribute near their established level. If New York can neutralize one advantage, Atlanta must preserve the other rather than let the series become dependent on one part of its game.
My lean: Atlanta. The Dream have the clearer semifinal advantage, supported by all three overall measures and better adjusted scoring on both ends. New York’s first-round result deserves respect, but the unchanged season-end ratings still make Atlanta the stronger statistical choice.
What I Will Be Watching
Golden State–Las Vegas tests whether an extraordinary defense can keep compensating for a weak offense against a stronger scoring opponent. Atlanta–New York tests whether a balanced favorite can make its advantages hold up against a team that has already overturned a larger statistical gap.
My choices are Golden State and Atlanta, with Golden State–Las Vegas the tougher call. The Valkyries own the strongest remaining overall profile, but Atlanta has the more favorable comparison within its semifinal. Those are different conclusions, and both matter when looking ahead.
The full tables are available in my WNBA season reports.