The Yankees and Rays are separated by less than one point in my overall ratings. The White Sox have the stronger offense against Cleveland, but the Guardians have the better pitching numbers. In the National League, the Dodgers and Brewers bring the two highest ratings in baseball into matchups with Atlanta and San Diego.
That gives this round two very different stories: narrow statistical edges in the American League and much larger full-season advantages for the two National League division winners.
This follows last week’s Wild Card preview using the same final regular-season reports. Although the Division Series are underway as of this post’s date, the analysis below is a baseline preview of the matchups, without incorporating Division Series results.
The Matchups
| League | Matchup |
|---|---|
| AL | New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
| AL | Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians |
| NL | Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers |
| NL | San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers |
The Division Series are best-of-five. For current results and game information, see MLB’s postseason bracket.
Reading the Numbers
All statistics below come from this site’s final regular-season reports through September 27. Overall rankings cover all 30 teams and are not postseason seeds. Higher offensive TOP is better; lower pitching TOP allowed is better. TBA means total bases accumulated. Runs per game use actual games played, including the Yankees’ 161-game season. Published ranks break ties that appear in rounded TOP values.
Each hitting table shows the team’s four highest TOP values among players with at least 300 plate appearances in its team rows. Pitching tables select prominent high-workload pitchers and strong performers at smaller workloads; they are not projected rotations. Innings use baseball notation: .1 means one out and .2 means two outs.
Player statistics reflect the reports’ team assignments, including team-specific portions of traded players’ seasons. They do not establish postseason availability or starting assignments. The assessments are interpretations of the season numbers, not calculated series win probabilities.
Yankees vs. Rays: The Closest Rating Matchup
| Metric | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 93-68 | 98-64 |
| Overall MLB rank | 3 | 4 |
| Rating | 117.14 | 116.22 |
| Runs scored | 739 | 736 |
| Runs allowed | 601 | 650 |
| Run differential | +138 | +86 |
| Runs per game | 4.59 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed per game | 3.73 | 4.01 |
| Offensive TOP (MLB rank) | 0.484 (5) | 0.473 (12) |
| Pitching TOP (MLB rank) | 0.431 (2) | 0.451 (7) |
Tampa Bay won five more games, but New York finished one place higher in my rankings with a 0.92-point rating advantage. The Yankees also lead in both TOP categories and own a run differential 52 runs better. This is a close matchup in the overall ratings, with the underlying production measures leaning toward New York.
The offenses scored almost identical totals: 739 runs for the Yankees and 736 for the Rays. The larger scoreboard difference is on the other side, where New York allowed 49 fewer runs in one fewer game. Tampa Bay’s seventh-ranked pitching is a strength, but the Yankees’ second-ranked staff sets a higher standard.
Yankees: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | L | 667 | 105 | 399 | 0.598 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | L | 532 | 69 | 277 | 0.521 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | R | 380 | 44 | 189 | 0.497 |
| Cody Bellinger | L | 562 | 73 | 278 | 0.495 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 20 | 434 | 112.2 | 0.338 |
| Cam Schlittler | 33 | 761 | 193.2 | 0.355 |
| Carlos Rodón | 16 | 340 | 84.1 | 0.388 |
| Ryan Weathers | 25 | 568 | 137.1 | 0.430 |
| David Bednar | 64 | 280 | 69.1 | 0.371 |
| Paul Blackburn | 62 | 336 | 85.0 | 0.372 |
Ben Rice leads this group at .598 TOP with 399 TBA. Jazz Chisholm Jr. adds a .521, while Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger sit just below .500. Rice is the biggest rate-production threat among the selected hitters on either side, though Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero accumulated slightly more total bases.
Cam Schlittler’s .355 TOP allowed over 193.2 innings gives New York an exceptional combination of rate and workload. Max Fried’s .338 is better still over 112.2 innings, and Carlos Rodón adds a .388 in 84.1. David Bednar and Paul Blackburn both finished below .375 across more than 60 appearances. The Yankees have several strong individual pitching performances supporting their team ranking.
Rays: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | R | 702 | 100 | 406 | 0.578 |
| Yandy Díaz | R | 686 | 93 | 342 | 0.499 |
| Jonathan Aranda | L | 668 | 73 | 331 | 0.496 |
| Jonny DeLuca | R | 370 | 44 | 178 | 0.485 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 30 | 669 | 172.0 | 0.363 |
| Nick Martinez | 31 | 722 | 180.0 | 0.437 |
| Shane McClanahan | 24 | 487 | 118.0 | 0.409 |
| Freddy Peralta | 10 | 218 | 55.1 | 0.394 |
| Bryan Baker | 65 | 244 | 62.1 | 0.337 |
| Kevin Kelly | 71 | 279 | 73.2 | 0.367 |
Junior Caminero’s .578 TOP, 406 TBA, and 100 runs make him the central offensive threat. Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda supply similar rates near .500 over more than 660 plate appearances each. Tampa Bay needs production from that supporting group to keep New York from making Caminero carry the offense.
Drew Rasmussen is Tampa Bay’s strongest high-workload answer to Schlittler, allowing a .363 TOP over 172 innings. Shane McClanahan’s .409 and Nick Martinez’s .437 give the Rays additional substantial workloads, while Freddy Peralta’s .394 covers only his 55.1 innings with Tampa Bay. Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly posted .337 and .367 across 65 and 71 appearances. Those individual rates explain why the Rays can make the pitching matchup closer than second versus seventh might suggest.
What decides it: Whether Tampa Bay can keep the Yankees’ advantage in offensive depth from showing up when the strongest pitchers leave the game. New York’s task is to limit traffic ahead of Caminero and make the Rays sustain rallies against a staff with several effective options.
My read: A slight edge to the Yankees on the regular-season evidence. Tampa Bay’s record and Rasmussen-led pitching make this a much tighter call than New York’s 52-run advantage in differential alone would suggest.
White Sox vs. Guardians: Chicago’s Offense Against Cleveland’s Pitching
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-78 | 85-77 |
| Overall MLB rank | 9 | 12 |
| Rating | 105.39 | 103.22 |
| Runs scored | 776 | 678 |
| Runs allowed | 720 | 667 |
| Run differential | +56 | +11 |
| Runs per game | 4.79 | 4.19 |
| Runs allowed per game | 4.44 | 4.12 |
| Offensive TOP (MLB rank) | 0.479 (9) | 0.461 (24) |
| Pitching TOP (MLB rank) | 0.473 (21) | 0.459 (10) |
Chicago scored 98 more runs, while Cleveland allowed 53 fewer. The White Sox have the better overall rating by 2.17 points and the better run differential by 45 runs. The Guardians counter with a pitching TOP ranking 11 places higher.
This is the clearest split between offensive and pitching strengths in the American League. Chicago’s ninth-ranked offense faces a Cleveland lineup ranked 24th, but the White Sox’s 21st-ranked pitching gives the Guardians an opportunity to close that gap. Cleveland does not need to reproduce Chicago’s full-season scoring pace if its own pitchers can keep the games tight.
White Sox: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | R | 704 | 106 | 407 | 0.579 |
| Munetaka Murakami | L | 553 | 82 | 313 | 0.566 |
| Tristan Peters | L | 491 | 63 | 245 | 0.503 |
| Sam Antonacci | L | 557 | 81 | 274 | 0.495 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | 29 | 617 | 146.0 | 0.458 |
| Sean Burke | 32 | 716 | 172.1 | 0.461 |
| Anthony Kay | 33 | 710 | 158.0 | 0.494 |
| Grant Taylor | 60 | 336 | 84.0 | 0.375 |
| Sean Newcomb | 60 | 372 | 90.1 | 0.414 |
| Hagen Smith | 18 | 110 | 28.0 | 0.309 |
Miguel Vargas and Munetaka Murakami both finished above .560 TOP, comfortably ahead of Cleveland’s leading hitter with at least 300 plate appearances. Vargas combined that rate with 704 plate appearances, 407 TBA, and 106 runs. Tristan Peters and Sam Antonacci give Chicago two more productive left-handed bats behind that pair.
Davis Martin and Sean Burke allowed TOP marks of .458 and .461 over substantial workloads. Those rates are serviceable, but the stronger numbers belong to Grant Taylor and Sean Newcomb at .375 and .414. Hagen Smith’s .309 is eye-catching over just 28 innings. Chicago’s challenge is covering enough innings with its better-performing pitchers to protect the advantage its hitters can create.
Guardians: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | L | 559 | 62 | 296 | 0.530 |
| Angel Martínez | B | 416 | 49 | 209 | 0.510 |
| Travis Bazzana | L | 517 | 56 | 259 | 0.501 |
| José Ramírez | B | 544 | 71 | 270 | 0.497 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 32 | 747 | 186.1 | 0.399 |
| Gavin Williams | 32 | 746 | 184.1 | 0.446 |
| Tanner Bibee | 33 | 780 | 188.0 | 0.471 |
| Cade Smith | 69 | 295 | 74.0 | 0.350 |
| Colin Holderman | 54 | 222 | 52.2 | 0.357 |
| Erik Sabrowski | 60 | 203 | 48.1 | 0.396 |
Chase DeLauter leads Cleveland’s selected hitters at .530 TOP with 296 TBA. Angel Martínez and Travis Bazzana also clear .500, with José Ramírez close at .497. That gives Cleveland a productive core despite its low team ranking. The concern is whether the rest of the lineup can contribute enough to exploit Chicago’s weaker staff numbers.
Parker Messick is the key statistical counterweight to Chicago’s offense: a .399 TOP allowed over 186.1 innings. Gavin Williams adds a .446 across 184.1 innings, while Tanner Bibee’s .471 over 188 innings is less convincing by this measure. Cade Smith and Colin Holderman finished at .350 and .357, with Erik Sabrowski at .396. If available in the right situations, those pitchers give Cleveland a route to keeping Chicago below its normal scoring level.
What decides it: Whether the White Sox can score before Cleveland can concentrate innings in its most effective arms. For the Guardians, getting runners on around DeLauter and Ramírez is essential; relying on a low-scoring game leaves little room to waste opportunities.
My read: Chicago has the narrow statistical edge because of its stronger offense and run differential. Cleveland’s case rests on Messick and its best shorter-workload pitchers turning a team-level offensive disadvantage into a series of close games.
Braves vs. Dodgers: Atlanta Faces a More Complete Opponent
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 94-68 | 100-62 |
| Overall MLB rank | 5 | 2 |
| Rating | 115.80 | 124.83 |
| Runs scored | 742 | 801 |
| Runs allowed | 626 | 600 |
| Run differential | +116 | +201 |
| Runs per game | 4.58 | 4.94 |
| Runs allowed per game | 3.86 | 3.70 |
| Offensive TOP (MLB rank) | 0.467 (18) | 0.494 (3) |
| Pitching TOP (MLB rank) | 0.457 (9) | 0.436 (3) |
Los Angeles leads in both TOP categories, scored 59 more runs, and allowed 26 fewer. Its 9.03-point rating advantage is substantial, and its +201 run differential exceeds Atlanta’s by 85 runs. The Dodgers combine third-ranked offense with third-ranked pitching; the Braves rank 18th and ninth.
Atlanta’s +116 differential still describes a strong team. The problem is that its opponent has fewer apparent weaknesses in the season totals. The Braves’ best route is to make their strongest individual pitchers carry more weight than their overall staff average, then get enough offense from a core with four hitters above .510 TOP.
Braves: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | L | 698 | 99 | 385 | 0.552 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | R | 469 | 61 | 255 | 0.544 |
| Michael Harris II | L | 621 | 79 | 324 | 0.523 |
| Drake Baldwin | L | 615 | 85 | 318 | 0.517 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 27 | 648 | 162.2 | 0.362 |
| Martín Pérez | 30 | 596 | 142.0 | 0.431 |
| Grant Holmes | 31 | 642 | 151.2 | 0.459 |
| Tyler Mahle | 9 | 210 | 54.1 | 0.367 |
| Robert Suarez | 33 | 130 | 34.0 | 0.318 |
| Dylan Lee | 71 | 262 | 67.0 | 0.369 |
Matt Olson leads the selected hitters at .552 TOP and 385 TBA, with Ronald Acuña Jr. close in rate at .544. Michael Harris II and Drake Baldwin supply .523 and .517 across more than 600 plate appearances apiece. Atlanta has a credible group of run producers even though its full lineup ranks well behind Los Angeles.
Chris Sale’s .362 TOP allowed over 162.2 innings is the strongest foundation for an upset. Martín Pérez’s .431 is also better than the Braves’ team mark. Tyler Mahle’s .367 is promising across only 54.1 innings, while Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee provide .318 and .369 in smaller workloads. Atlanta needs those strengths to matter more than the less effective innings represented in its .457 team TOP allowed.
Dodgers: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | L | 618 | 89 | 364 | 0.591 |
| Max Muncy | L | 561 | 81 | 314 | 0.560 |
| Andy Pages | R | 574 | 75 | 302 | 0.526 |
| Mookie Betts | R | 528 | 71 | 265 | 0.502 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 28 | 708 | 185.0 | 0.357 |
| Justin Wrobleski | 28 | 578 | 140.0 | 0.434 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 14 | 340 | 85.2 | 0.339 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 13 | 288 | 74.0 | 0.401 |
| Tarik Skubal | 10 | 246 | 62.0 | 0.388 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | 61 | 242 | 60.0 | 0.342 |
| Alex Vesia | 72 | 237 | 58.0 | 0.363 |
| Tanner Scott | 69 | 251 | 63.2 | 0.378 |
Shohei Ohtani’s .591 TOP leads this group, followed by Max Muncy’s .560. Andy Pages adds a .526 and Mookie Betts a .502. Ohtani and Muncy both exceed Atlanta’s leading selected hitter in rate, while the Dodgers’ third-ranked team offense shows that their advantage extends beyond a single star.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto matches Sale’s excellent rate with an even larger workload: .357 TOP allowed over 185 innings. Ohtani’s pitching line adds a .339 across 85.2 innings. Tyler Glasnow and Tarik Skubal supply .401 and .388 in smaller team workloads, and Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia, and Tanner Scott all finished below .380. These are performance options in the reports, not an assumed postseason pitching plan, but they illustrate the depth behind Los Angeles’ team mark.
What decides it: Whether Atlanta can win the innings covered by its best pitchers without letting Los Angeles’ offensive advantage take over elsewhere. Sale can give the Braves an excellent individual pitching performance, but the Dodgers have a comparable high-workload leader in Yamamoto and several strong rates behind him.
My read: Los Angeles has a clear edge. Atlanta’s leading hitters and Sale make an upset plausible, but the Dodgers have the stronger combination of lineup production and pitching across the full season.
Padres vs. Brewers: The Largest Statistical Gap
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 91-71 | 103-59 |
| Overall MLB rank | 8 | 1 |
| Rating | 108.89 | 127.17 |
| Runs scored | 722 | 832 |
| Runs allowed | 681 | 618 |
| Run differential | +41 | +214 |
| Runs per game | 4.46 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed per game | 4.20 | 3.81 |
| Offensive TOP (MLB rank) | 0.477 (11) | 0.485 (4) |
| Pitching TOP (MLB rank) | 0.462 (12) | 0.431 (1) |
Milwaukee brings the best overall rating in baseball and the largest rating advantage in this round: 18.28 points. The Brewers scored 110 more runs than San Diego and allowed 63 fewer, creating a 173-run advantage in differential. They rank fourth in offensive TOP and first in pitching TOP.
San Diego is a good team at eighth overall, but Milwaukee is stronger on both sides of the comparison. Unlike their Wild Card matchup with the Cubs, the Padres cannot point to better team pitching as the natural counter to a superior offense. They need their strongest individual performances to narrow both gaps.
Padres: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | R | 704 | 96 | 390 | 0.555 |
| Ty France | R | 500 | 59 | 272 | 0.545 |
| Jackson Merrill | L | 664 | 86 | 337 | 0.511 |
| Gavin Sheets | L | 419 | 47 | 202 | 0.482 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 32 | 757 | 185.0 | 0.416 |
| Randy Vásquez | 32 | 587 | 140.2 | 0.473 |
| Walker Buehler | 32 | 651 | 153.2 | 0.483 |
| Nick Pivetta | 8 | 140 | 34.2 | 0.350 |
| Mason Miller | 66 | 272 | 70.0 | 0.305 |
| Adrián Morejón | 76 | 352 | 86.0 | 0.366 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ty France lead San Diego at .555 and .545 TOP, with Jackson Merrill adding .511 over 664 plate appearances. That trio can create offense against a strong staff, but the Padres need enough help around them to challenge a team that averaged 5.14 runs per game.
Michael King’s .416 TOP allowed over 185 innings is the strongest large-workload line in this group. Mason Miller’s .305 across 70 innings and Adrián Morejón’s .366 across 86 provide an excellent route through later innings if San Diego can reach them with a lead. Nick Pivetta’s .350 comes over only 34.2 innings, while Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler finished at .473 and .483. The contrast between those lines makes the distribution of innings especially important.
Brewers: hitters and pitchers to watch
| Hitter | Bats | PA | Runs | TBA | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | L | 578 | 93 | 334 | 0.578 |
| Jackson Chourio | R | 573 | 96 | 321 | 0.560 |
| Brice Turang | L | 680 | 102 | 367 | 0.544 |
| Andrew Vaughn | R | 331 | 33 | 169 | 0.511 |
| Pitcher | G | Batters faced | IP | TOP allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 30 | 665 | 174.2 | 0.307 |
| Shane Drohan | 33 | 528 | 124.2 | 0.472 |
| Robert Gasser | 21 | 463 | 109.1 | 0.466 |
| Logan Henderson | 18 | 371 | 98.1 | 0.381 |
| Aaron Ashby | 75 | 383 | 89.1 | 0.405 |
| Trevor Megill | 63 | 242 | 61.2 | 0.317 |
| Abner Uribe | 61 | 234 | 59.1 | 0.328 |
| DL Hall | 47 | 241 | 61.1 | 0.350 |
Jake Bauers leads Milwaukee’s selected hitters at .578 TOP, followed by Jackson Chourio at .560 and Brice Turang at .544. Turang accumulated 367 bases and scored 102 runs over 680 plate appearances. Andrew Vaughn adds a .511 over a smaller 331-plate-appearance sample. Milwaukee has three hitters in this group with TOP values between .544 and .578, with the team totals supporting the strength of the broader offense.
Jacob Misiorowski is the standout: .307 TOP allowed over 174.2 innings and 665 batters faced. That is nearly Miller’s rate over a much larger workload. Logan Henderson adds a .381 across 98.1 innings, while Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and DL Hall posted .317, .328, and .350. Aaron Ashby supplies another substantial contribution at .405 over 89.1 innings. Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser were less dominant, so the staff is not uniformly at Misiorowski’s level, but Milwaukee has several strong options beyond him.
What decides it: Whether San Diego can produce enough early offense to let King, Miller, and Morejón make the games look different from the full-season comparison. Milwaukee’s goal is sustained pressure: make the Padres cover innings beyond their best rate performers while its own pitchers contain Tatis, France, and Merrill.
My read: Milwaukee has the strongest statistical case of any team in this round. San Diego has individual pitchers capable of changing a short series, but the Brewers’ advantages in offense, pitching, and run differential all point in the same direction.
The Questions I Will Be Watching
The American League matchups look close. My numbers lean toward the Yankees and White Sox, but Tampa Bay’s strong pitching and Cleveland’s best individual arms give each opponent a credible answer.
The National League favorites are clearer. Los Angeles has a strong advantage over Atlanta, while Milwaukee has the most complete statistical case against San Diego. For the Braves and Padres, the question is how much of a five-game series their best pitchers can cover—and whether their leading hitters can provide enough support in those games.
Reports Behind This Preview
Team comparisons use the final overall rankings, offensive TOP report, and pitching TOP report. Player tables use the final all-hitter report and all-pitcher report.
The underlying statistics are sourced from Baseball-Reference, as credited in those reports. Visit the 2026 MLB season page for the complete tables.