Home-field advantage matters in the NFL, but the point spread is designed to account for it. The more useful question is whether home teams still covered after DraftKings priced that advantage into the line.
I reviewed 1,424 regular-season and playoff games from the 2021 through 2025 NFL seasons using historical DraftKings point spreads and final scores. Home teams finished slightly above 50 percent overall, but the results varied substantially depending on whether the home team was favored and by how many points.
Home-team ATS records by spread range
The table below shows the home team’s against-the-spread record. Records are listed as wins, losses, and pushes.
| Home-team spread | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | All seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favored overall | 82-91-2 | 80-94-7 | 87-84-7 | 92-77-3 | 82-81-0 | 423-427-19 |
| Favored by 20 or more | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Favored by 10–19.5 | 24-8-1 | 10-13-0 | 10-9-1 | 8-5-0 | 17-9-0 | 69-44-2 |
| Favored by 5–9.5 | 26-33-1 | 24-29-2 | 25-30-0 | 35-33-3 | 26-27-0 | 136-152-6 |
| Favored by 0.5–4.5 | 32-50-0 | 46-52-5 | 52-45-6 | 49-39-0 | 39-45-0 | 218-231-11 |
| Underdog by 0.5–4.5 | 33-30-1 | 32-30-4 | 35-39-5 | 34-39-2 | 37-38-0 | 171-176-12 |
| Underdog by 5–9.5 | 14-19-0 | 19-12-0 | 13-8-1 | 17-18-1 | 20-19-1 | 83-76-3 |
| Underdog by 10–19.5 | 8-4-1 | 5-1-0 | 2-4-0 | 1-1-0 | 5-2-0 | 21-12-1 |
| Underdog by 20 or more | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Loading chart…
Home favorites finished below 50 percent
Home favorites went 423-427-19 against the spread. Excluding pushes, that is a 49.8 percent cover rate.
The overall result hid a sharp difference by spread size. Home teams favored by 10 to 19.5 points went 69-44-2 and covered 61.1 percent of decisions. Favorites laying between 5 and 9.5 points covered only 47.2 percent, while favorites laying no more than 4.5 points covered 48.6 percent.
| Home favorite range | ATS record | Cover rate* |
|---|---|---|
| 20 or more | 0-0-0 | N/A |
| 10–19.5 | 69-44-2 | 61.1% |
| 5–9.5 | 136-152-6 | 47.2% |
| 0.5–4.5 | 218-231-11 | 48.6% |
| All home favorites | 423-427-19 | 49.8% |
The double-digit-favorite result was the clearest departure from 50 percent in the favorite data, but it came from 115 games. The results also varied by season. Double-digit home favorites covered 75.0 percent in 2021 and 65.4 percent in 2025, but only 43.5 percent in 2022.
Loading chart…
Home underdogs performed slightly better
Home underdogs went 275-264-16, covering 51.0 percent of decisions. That was better than the home-favorite rate, but still below the approximate 52.4 percent break-even point for wagers priced at -110.
| Home underdog range | ATS record | Cover rate* |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5–4.5 | 171-176-12 | 49.3% |
| 5–9.5 | 83-76-3 | 52.2% |
| 10–19.5 | 21-12-1 | 63.6% |
| 20 or more | 0-0-0 | N/A |
| All home underdogs | 275-264-16 | 51.0% |
Home underdogs getting between 10 and 19.5 points produced the highest percentage at 63.6 percent. That category included only 34 games, however, so a handful of results can move the percentage considerably. Home underdogs getting 5 to 9.5 points were much closer to the break-even benchmark at 52.2 percent.
What the results do—and do not—show
Across all 1,424 games, home teams went 698-691-35 against the spread, a 50.3 percent cover rate after excluding pushes. That result does not show a general home-team betting advantage.
The strongest results came at the edges of the available NFL spread ranges. Double-digit home favorites covered 61.1 percent, and double-digit home underdogs covered 63.6 percent. Those categories were also much smaller than the groups involving single-digit spreads. The underdog result, in particular, came from only 34 games.
There are several important limits to the data:
- The analysis uses DraftKings spreads rather than a consensus across multiple sportsbooks.
- Each line is a historical snapshot taken around 12:00 UTC on the day of the game, not necessarily the closing spread.
- Cover percentages exclude pushes.
- The break-even reference assumes -110 pricing. The actual DraftKings prices attached to individual spreads varied.
- No home team in these snapshots was favored or listed as an underdog by 20 or more points, so those categories contain no games.
- The analysis covers completed regular-season and playoff games, including the Super Bowl, from five seasons.
- Historical results do not guarantee that the same patterns will continue.
The main takeaway
NFL home teams landed close to 50 percent against the spread from 2021 through 2025. Home favorites covered 49.8 percent of decisions, and home underdogs covered 51.0 percent.
The broad home-favorite and home-underdog records did not clear the standard -110 break-even benchmark. The double-digit categories performed much better, but they also involved fewer games and showed meaningful season-to-season variation.
The data provides useful context for evaluating home-field advantage. It also reinforces the same lesson found in the college-football results: once the spread accounts for an expected advantage, the broad categories tend to move back toward the middle.
*Cover rates exclude pushes.