Team Rankings

The Brewers remain my No. 1 team, but the race at the top tightened over the past week. Milwaukee went 3-4 and saw its run differential fall from +177 to +168. The Dodgers went 4-2 to cut the Brewers’ ratings lead from 3.97 points to 1.92, while Atlanta remains third after a 3-3 week.

The Yankees and Cubs hold fourth and fifth, followed by Tampa Bay, Boston, Philadelphia, the White Sox, and San Diego. Pittsburgh is the week’s biggest riser, climbing two places to No. 12. Baltimore makes the largest drop, falling five spots to No. 21.

These ratings are not just the standings. They account for scoring margin, opponent strength, and season-long performance. Pittsburgh is a good example of what the model sees beyond wins and losses: the Pirates are 71-73, but their +26 run differential and top-11 marks in both batting and pitching TOP lift them above several teams with similar or better records. Detroit is 13 games below .500, yet its +50 run differential and fifth-ranked pitching staff keep the Tigers at No. 16.

Rank Team Wins Losses Runs Runs Allowed Run Differential Rating
1 Milwaukee Brewers 88 56 726 558 168 123.20
2 Los Angeles Dodgers 86 57 705 553 152 121.28
3 Atlanta Braves 85 58 665 545 120 118.52
4 New York Yankees 81 62 646 529 117 115.69
5 Chicago Cubs 81 63 768 636 132 115.22
6 Tampa Bay Rays 85 58 647 600 47 112.95
7 Boston Red Sox 79 65 642 556 86 111.43
8 Philadelphia Phillies 80 63 641 607 34 108.48
9 Chicago White Sox 75 68 680 631 49 105.97
10 San Diego Padres 75 68 602 594 8 103.06

Milwaukee remains the most balanced team in the ratings. The Brewers rank fourth in batting TOP and second in pitching TOP. The Dodgers are third on both sides, while the Yankees pair the league’s top pitching mark with the fifth-ranked offense.

Batting

The Cubs remain No. 1 in team batting TOP, narrowly ahead of Washington. The Dodgers stay third, while Milwaukee climbs two places to fourth and the Yankees round out the top five. Colorado moves up to sixth, and Pittsburgh’s eighth-ranked offense helps explain the Pirates’ rise in the overall ratings.

Pete Crow-Armstrong holds onto the top qualified hitter ranking, though Yordan Alvarez is now tied with him at 0.666 TOP before rounding. James Wood remains third, followed by Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber. Ben Rice and Jake Bauers move into the top seven, while Willson Contreras enters the top 10 at No. 9.

TOP measures total bases accumulated per plate appearance. Expected runs converts those total bases into a simple run estimate, giving another way to compare offensive production across players and teams.

Top Ten teams by TOP

Rank Team Games PA Runs TBA Expected Runs TOP
1 Chicago Cubs 144 5687 768 2901 725.2 0.511
2 Washington Nationals 145 5577 748 2818 704.5 0.507
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 143 5477 705 2662 665.5 0.488
4 Milwaukee Brewers 144 5605 726 2685 671.2 0.482
5 New York Yankees 143 5331 646 2563 640.8 0.482
6 Colorado Rockies 143 5459 679 2616 654.0 0.481
7 Miami Marlins 144 5426 631 2593 648.2 0.480
8 Pittsburgh Pirates 144 5582 694 2669 667.2 0.479
9 Chicago White Sox 143 5458 680 2598 649.5 0.478
10 Tampa Bay Rays 143 5406 647 2540 635.0 0.474

Top Twenty hitters by TOP

Rank Player Team Bats G PA Runs TBA Expected Runs TOP
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC L 144 645 106 429 107.2 0.666
2 Yordan Alvarez HOU L 142 623 94 415 103.8 0.666
3 James Wood WSN L 118 554 101 354 88.5 0.639
4 Shohei Ohtani LAD L 129 592 89 356 89.0 0.603
5 Kyle Schwarber PHI L 137 614 85 366 91.5 0.597
6 Ben Rice NYY L 137 591 89 348 87.0 0.589
7 Jake Bauers MIL L 129 518 82 305 76.2 0.589
8 CJ Abrams WSN L 136 588 84 346 86.5 0.588
9 Willson Contreras BOS R 125 517 66 303 75.8 0.587
10 Junior Caminero TBR R 143 625 87 365 91.2 0.584
11 Miguel Vargas CHW R 141 623 95 362 90.5 0.582
12 Bryce Harper PHI L 143 611 85 354 88.5 0.579
13 Elly De La Cruz CIN B 124 556 86 320 80.0 0.576
14 Hunter Goodman COL R 123 509 77 290 72.5 0.570
15 Luis García Jr. 2TM L 133 486 62 276 69.0 0.568
16 Rafael Devers SFG L 144 615 85 349 87.2 0.567
17 Bobby Witt Jr. KCR R 125 553 82 313 78.2 0.566
18 Munetaka Murakami CHW L 108 474 73 268 67.0 0.565
19 Matt Olson ATL L 143 621 94 349 87.2 0.562
20 Pete Alonso BAL R 144 623 86 350 87.5 0.562

Pitching

The Yankees move ahead of Milwaukee for the top team pitching ranking. The Dodgers remain third, followed by Boston and Detroit. Toronto moves up to sixth, while Atlanta, Miami, Tampa Bay, and San Diego complete the top 10.

Jacob Misiorowski remains the top individual pitcher by TOP despite his mark rising from 0.300 to 0.313. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cam Schlittler each move up one spot, while Chris Sale falls from second to fourth. Walbert Ureña makes the biggest move within the top 10, climbing four places to seventh.

Top Ten teams by TOP

Rank Team Games Batters Faced TBA TOP
1 New York Yankees 143 5292 2263.0 0.430
2 Milwaukee Brewers 144 5326 2299.0 0.433
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 143 5259 2328.0 0.444
4 Boston Red Sox 144 5368 2383.0 0.446
5 Detroit Tigers 143 5314 2369.0 0.448
6 Toronto Blue Jays 144 5436 2448.0 0.453
7 Atlanta Braves 143 5335 2406.0 0.453
8 Miami Marlins 144 5358 2427.0 0.454
9 Tampa Bay Rays 143 5279 2398.0 0.456
10 San Diego Padres 143 5349 2439.0 0.458

Top Twenty pitchers by TOP

Rank Name Team G Batters Faced IP TBA TOP
1 Jacob Misiorowski MIL 26 592 155.0 185 0.313
2 Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD 25 634 165.0 230 0.363
3 Cam Schlittler NYY 29 677 171.2 244 0.363
4 Chris Sale ATL 25 601 150.0 218 0.363
5 Drew Rasmussen TBR 27 598 153.1 219 0.366
6 Dylan Cease TOR 26 622 156.1 234 0.377
7 Walbert Ureña LAA 26 552 131.1 215 0.390
8 Tarik Skubal TOT 22 521 132.1 204 0.394
9 Parker Messick CLE 28 663 167.0 260 0.394
10 Cristopher Sánchez PHI 29 752 181.1 296 0.395
11 Keider Montero DET 29 577 143.0 229 0.400
12 Ranger Suarez BOS 25 543 130.2 219 0.404
13 Reid Detmers LAA 28 651 162.0 263 0.406
14 Jesús Luzardo PHI 28 697 169.2 282 0.407
15 Max Meyer MIA 20 462 111.0 188 0.408
16 José Soriano TOT 28 654 156.0 266 0.409
17 Nolan McLean NYM 28 671 161.2 273 0.409
18 Shane McClanahan TBR 24 487 118.0 198 0.409
19 Michael King SDP 29 686 168.0 281 0.411
20 Jacob deGrom TEX 27 582 143.1 240 0.413

Shoutout to Baseball Reference for providing the stats!

Complete 2026 rankings can be found on the 2026 MLB season page.