WAA = actual wins (ties count as 0.5) minus expected wins for a team with the league-average power rating against the same opponents.
Expected wins sum normal win probabilities, with and without home-field advantage (HFA). Neutral games marked N receive no HFA. The rating-to-points scale and HFA are fitted to all supplied completed games; residuals are capped at ±35 points when estimating margin variability. Postseason games are included when present. Week labels do not filter the input snapshot.
Average rating: 100.061. Fitted HFA: 1.101 points. Rating coefficient: 1.353. Margin standard deviation: 10.630 points.
Week 5
| Rank | Team | Games | Wins | Expected Wins (No HFA) | Expected Wins (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MINNESOTA |
5 | 5.0 | 2.689 | 2.646 | 2.311 | 2.354 |
| 2 |  SAN FRANCISCO |
5 | 5.0 | 2.591 | 2.654 | 2.409 | 2.346 |
| 3 |  KANSAS CITY |
4 | 4.0 | 1.994 | 1.991 | 2.006 | 2.009 |
| 4 |  JACKSONVILLE |
5 | 4.0 | 2.117 | 2.121 | 1.883 | 1.879 |
| 5 |  DENVER |
5 | 3.0 | 1.766 | 1.763 | 1.234 | 1.237 |
| 6 |  NEW ENGLAND |
5 | 3.0 | 1.866 | 1.84 | 1.134 | 1.16 |
| 7 |  BUFFALO |
5 | 4.0 | 2.822 | 2.855 | 1.178 | 1.145 |
| 8 |  CLEVELAND |
5 | 3.0 | 2.229 | 2.201 | 0.771 | 0.799 |
| 9 |  GREEN BAY |
5 | 3.0 | 2.28 | 2.253 | 0.72 | 0.747 |
| 10 |  CHICAGO |
5 | 3.0 | 2.237 | 2.265 | 0.763 | 0.735 |
| 11 |  BALTIMORE |
5 | 4.0 | 3.348 | 3.283 | 0.652 | 0.717 |
| 12 |  PITTSBURGH |
5 | 3.0 | 2.316 | 2.362 | 0.684 | 0.638 |
| 13 |  LAS VEGAS |
5 | 3.0 | 2.569 | 2.525 | 0.431 | 0.475 |
| 14 |  CINCINNATI |
5 | 3.0 | 2.698 | 2.659 | 0.302 | 0.341 |
| 15 |  DETROIT |
5 | 3.0 | 2.715 | 2.681 | 0.285 | 0.319 |
| 16 |  SEATTLE |
5 | 3.0 | 2.733 | 2.753 | 0.267 | 0.247 |
| 17 |  CAROLINA |
4 | 2.0 | 1.813 | 1.812 | 0.187 | 0.188 |
| 18 |  NY GIANTS |
5 | 3.5 | 3.529 | 3.537 | -0.029 | -0.037 |
| 19 |  LA RAMS |
5 | 2.0 | 2.06 | 2.066 | -0.06 | -0.066 |
| 20 |  ATLANTA |
5 | 2.0 | 2.355 | 2.317 | -0.355 | -0.317 |
| 21 |  NY JETS |
5 | 2.0 | 2.589 | 2.573 | -0.589 | -0.573 |
| 22 |  INDIANAPOLIS |
5 | 2.0 | 2.571 | 2.579 | -0.571 | -0.579 |
| 23 |  PHILADELPHIA |
5 | 2.0 | 2.678 | 2.695 | -0.678 | -0.695 |
| 24 |  NEW ORLEANS |
5 | 1.0 | 2.14 | 2.169 | -1.14 | -1.169 |
| 25 |  TAMPA BAY |
5 | 1.0 | 2.169 | 2.202 | -1.169 | -1.202 |
| 26 |  DALLAS |
5 | 2.0 | 3.228 | 3.27 | -1.228 | -1.27 |
| 27 |  MIAMI |
5 | 0.0 | 1.383 | 1.36 | -1.383 | -1.36 |
| 28 |  ARIZONA |
5 | 1.0 | 2.483 | 2.474 | -1.483 | -1.474 |
| 29 |  WASHINGTON |
5 | 1.5 | 2.991 | 2.994 | -1.491 | -1.494 |
| 30 |  HOUSTON |
5 | 1.0 | 3.02 | 3.077 | -2.02 | -2.077 |
| 31 |  LA CHARGERS |
5 | 0.0 | 2.255 | 2.286 | -2.255 | -2.286 |
| 32 |  TENNESSEE |
5 | 0.0 | 3.113 | 3.139 | -3.113 | -3.139 |