Season to Date
Average FBS power rating: 126.270. Estimated home-field advantage: 3.780 points (1.786 power-rating units) from 622 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.674. Game-margin standard deviation: 13.072 points.
Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.
| Rank | School | conference | GP | W | Expected W (No HFA) | Expected W (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kentucky |
SEC | 8 | 7 | 2.170 | 2.363 | 4.830 | 4.637 |
| 2 |  Texas |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 1.141 | 1.478 | 4.859 | 4.522 |
| 3 |  Miami (FL) |
ACC | 8 | 8 | 3.540 | 3.509 | 4.460 | 4.491 |
| 4 |  Utah |
Big 12 | 8 | 8 | 3.634 | 3.772 | 4.366 | 4.228 |
| 5 |  Alabama |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 1.564 | 1.814 | 4.436 | 4.186 |
| 6 |  Ole Miss |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 1.826 | 1.914 | 4.174 | 4.086 |
| 7 |  Georgia |
SEC | 8 | 7 | 2.956 | 3.151 | 4.044 | 3.849 |
| 8 |  Indiana |
Big 10 | 9 | 8 | 4.062 | 4.177 | 3.938 | 3.823 |
| 9 |  UCLA |
Big 10 | 8 | 8 | 4.017 | 4.187 | 3.983 | 3.813 |
| 10 |  LSU |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 1.969 | 2.245 | 4.031 | 3.755 |
| 11 |  BYU |
Big 12 | 8 | 7 | 3.247 | 3.283 | 3.753 | 3.717 |
| 12 |  Wake Forest |
ACC | 8 | 7 | 3.571 | 3.445 | 3.429 | 3.555 |
| 13 |  Notre Dame |
FBS Independent | 8 | 7 | 3.541 | 3.591 | 3.459 | 3.409 |
| 14 |  Texas Tech |
Big 12 | 8 | 7 | 3.803 | 3.788 | 3.197 | 3.212 |
| 15 |  Missouri |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 3.006 | 2.924 | 2.994 | 3.076 |
| 16 |  USC |
Big 10 | 9 | 7 | 3.742 | 3.965 | 3.258 | 3.035 |
| 17 |  Tennessee |
SEC | 8 | 6 | 3.093 | 2.983 | 2.907 | 3.017 |
| 18 |  Florida |
SEC | 8 | 5 | 1.927 | 2.000 | 3.073 | 3.000 |
| 19 |  Iowa |
Big 10 | 8 | 6 | 3.081 | 3.100 | 2.919 | 2.900 |
| 20 |  South Carolina |
SEC | 8 | 5 | 2.265 | 2.318 | 2.735 | 2.682 |
| 21 |  Ohio State |
Big 10 | 8 | 6 | 3.233 | 3.346 | 2.767 | 2.654 |
| 22 |  Houston |
Big 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.375 | 3.421 | 2.625 | 2.579 |
| 23 |  Mississippi State |
SEC | 8 | 4 | 1.422 | 1.454 | 2.578 | 2.546 |
| 24 |  Oregon |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 2.404 | 2.508 | 2.596 | 2.492 |
| 25 |  Boise State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 4.678 | 4.721 | 2.322 | 2.279 |
| 26 |  Arizona |
Big 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.685 | 3.747 | 2.315 | 2.253 |
| 27 |  Oklahoma |
SEC | 8 | 4 | 1.721 | 1.808 | 2.279 | 2.192 |
| 28 |  Auburn |
SEC | 8 | 4 | 1.692 | 1.974 | 2.308 | 2.026 |
| 29 |  Minnesota |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 2.992 | 3.005 | 2.008 | 1.995 |
| 30 |  UTSA |
AAC | 8 | 7 | 5.152 | 5.129 | 1.848 | 1.871 |
| 31 |  Wisconsin |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 3.072 | 3.154 | 1.928 | 1.846 |
| 32 |  Northwestern |
Big 10 | 8 | 6 | 3.945 | 4.163 | 2.055 | 1.837 |
| 33 |  Michigan |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 3.118 | 3.349 | 1.882 | 1.651 |
| 34 |  Clemson |
ACC | 8 | 5 | 3.249 | 3.365 | 1.751 | 1.635 |
| 35 |  Oklahoma State |
Big 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.394 | 3.382 | 1.606 | 1.618 |
| 36 |  North Carolina |
ACC | 8 | 4 | 2.560 | 2.407 | 1.440 | 1.593 |
| 37 |  Louisville |
ACC | 8 | 5 | 3.284 | 3.417 | 1.716 | 1.583 |
| 38 |  Duke |
ACC | 8 | 6 | 4.343 | 4.455 | 1.657 | 1.545 |
| 39 |  Baylor |
Big 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.540 | 3.535 | 1.460 | 1.465 |
| 40 |  West Virginia |
Big 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.530 | 3.559 | 1.470 | 1.441 |
| 41 |  Cincinnati |
Big 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.322 | 3.597 | 1.678 | 1.403 |
| 42 |  Pittsburgh |
ACC | 9 | 6 | 4.351 | 4.629 | 1.649 | 1.371 |
| 43 |  SMU |
ACC | 8 | 6 | 4.557 | 4.636 | 1.443 | 1.364 |
| 44 |  Washington |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 3.623 | 3.655 | 1.377 | 1.345 |
| 45 |  Virginia Tech |
ACC | 8 | 6 | 4.884 | 4.703 | 1.116 | 1.297 |
| 46 |  Illinois |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 3.734 | 3.866 | 1.266 | 1.134 |
| 47 |  Iowa State |
Big 12 | 8 | 4 | 2.796 | 2.960 | 1.204 | 1.040 |
| 48 |  Texas A&M |
SEC | 8 | 4 | 2.796 | 3.014 | 1.204 | 0.986 |
| 49 |  Louisiana Tech |
Sun Belt | 8 | 6 | 5.060 | 5.088 | 0.940 | 0.912 |
| 50 |  New Mexico |
MWC | 8 | 7 | 6.140 | 6.121 | 0.860 | 0.879 |
| 51 |  North Texas |
AAC | 8 | 6 | 5.311 | 5.199 | 0.689 | 0.801 |
| 52 |  UCF |
Big 12 | 8 | 4 | 3.166 | 3.270 | 0.834 | 0.730 |
| 53 |  Purdue |
Big 10 | 8 | 3 | 2.234 | 2.290 | 0.766 | 0.710 |
| 54 |  Arkansas |
SEC | 8 | 3 | 2.379 | 2.399 | 0.621 | 0.601 |
| 55 |  Memphis |
AAC | 9 | 7 | 6.418 | 6.407 | 0.582 | 0.593 |
| 56 |  Nebraska |
Big 10 | 8 | 5 | 4.194 | 4.430 | 0.806 | 0.570 |
| 57 |  Arizona State |
Big 12 | 8 | 4 | 3.504 | 3.490 | 0.496 | 0.510 |
| 58 |  Liberty |
CUSA | 8 | 7 | 6.914 | 6.683 | 0.086 | 0.317 |
| 59 |  Stanford |
ACC | 9 | 4 | 3.621 | 3.683 | 0.379 | 0.317 |
| 60 |  Penn State |
Big 10 | 8 | 4 | 3.494 | 3.722 | 0.506 | 0.278 |
| 61 |  Boston College |
ACC | 8 | 4 | 3.819 | 3.739 | 0.181 | 0.261 |
| 62 |  TCU |
Big 12 | 8 | 4 | 3.488 | 3.748 | 0.512 | 0.252 |
| 63 |  Colorado |
Big 12 | 8 | 3 | 2.904 | 2.788 | 0.096 | 0.212 |
| 64 |  North Dakota State |
MWC | 9 | 7 | 6.915 | 6.805 | 0.085 | 0.195 |
| 65 |  Syracuse |
ACC | 8 | 4 | 3.849 | 3.812 | 0.151 | 0.188 |
| 66 |  Oregon State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 5 | 4.994 | 4.934 | 0.006 | 0.066 |
| 67 |  Vanderbilt |
SEC | 8 | 3 | 2.713 | 2.997 | 0.287 | 0.003 |
| 68 |  North Carolina State |
ACC | 8 | 4 | 4.024 | 4.019 | -0.024 | -0.019 |
| 69 |  James Madison |
Sun Belt | 9 | 7 | 7.128 | 7.071 | -0.128 | -0.071 |
| 70 |  Fresno State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 5 | 5.202 | 5.164 | -0.202 | -0.164 |
| 71 |  Western Michigan |
MAC | 9 | 6 | 6.440 | 6.198 | -0.440 | -0.198 |
| 72 |  South Florida |
AAC | 8 | 6 | 6.299 | 6.243 | -0.299 | -0.243 |
| 73 |  Army |
AAC | 8 | 5 | 5.371 | 5.280 | -0.371 | -0.280 |
| 74 |  Ohio |
MAC | 8 | 6 | 6.345 | 6.283 | -0.345 | -0.283 |
| 75 |  Texas State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 4 | 4.069 | 4.315 | -0.069 | -0.315 |
| 76 |  Jacksonville State |
CUSA | 8 | 6 | 6.420 | 6.318 | -0.420 | -0.318 |
| 77 |  Kansas State |
Big 12 | 8 | 4 | 4.305 | 4.357 | -0.305 | -0.357 |
| 78 |  Virginia |
ACC | 9 | 4 | 4.108 | 4.384 | -0.108 | -0.384 |
| 79 |  California |
ACC | 9 | 3 | 3.572 | 3.408 | -0.572 | -0.408 |
| 80 |  Toledo |
MAC | 8 | 6 | 6.361 | 6.436 | -0.361 | -0.436 |
| 81 |  Florida State |
ACC | 8 | 3 | 3.187 | 3.444 | -0.187 | -0.444 |
| 82 |  Florida Atlantic |
AAC | 8 | 5 | 5.601 | 5.485 | -0.601 | -0.485 |
| 83 |  Air Force |
MWC | 8 | 6 | 6.382 | 6.557 | -0.382 | -0.557 |
| 84 |  Kansas |
Big 12 | 8 | 3 | 3.462 | 3.567 | -0.462 | -0.567 |
| 85 |  UNLV |
MWC | 8 | 5 | 5.516 | 5.567 | -0.516 | -0.567 |
| 86 |  Louisiana |
Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 5.680 | 5.682 | -0.680 | -0.682 |
| 87 |  Tulane |
AAC | 8 | 4 | 4.678 | 4.709 | -0.678 | -0.709 |
| 88 |  Miami (OH) |
MAC | 8 | 5 | 5.950 | 5.776 | -0.950 | -0.776 |
| 89 |  Michigan State |
Big 10 | 8 | 2 | 2.546 | 2.894 | -0.546 | -0.894 |
| 90 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 6.226 | 6.010 | -1.226 | -1.010 |
| 91 |  Marshall |
Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 6.146 | 6.052 | -1.146 | -1.052 |
| 92 |  Georgia Southern |
Sun Belt | 8 | 4 | 5.117 | 5.056 | -1.117 | -1.056 |
| 93 |  Buffalo |
MAC | 8 | 5 | 6.235 | 6.150 | -1.235 | -1.150 |
| 94 |  South Alabama |
Sun Belt | 8 | 4 | 5.208 | 5.156 | -1.208 | -1.156 |
| 95 |  Wyoming |
MWC | 8 | 5 | 6.442 | 6.234 | -1.442 | -1.234 |
| 96 |  UAB |
AAC | 8 | 4 | 5.536 | 5.256 | -1.536 | -1.256 |
| 97 |  Utah State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 3 | 4.413 | 4.343 | -1.413 | -1.343 |
| 98 |  San Diego State |
Pac-12 | 9 | 4 | 5.302 | 5.361 | -1.302 | -1.361 |
| 99 |  Tulsa |
AAC | 8 | 4 | 5.292 | 5.369 | -1.292 | -1.369 |
| 100 |  Georgia Tech |
ACC | 8 | 2 | 3.405 | 3.480 | -1.405 | -1.480 |
| 101 |  Troy |
Sun Belt | 8 | 4 | 5.778 | 5.490 | -1.778 | -1.490 |
| 102 |  Colorado State |
Pac-12 | 8 | 3 | 4.564 | 4.580 | -1.564 | -1.580 |
| 103 |  Arkansas State |
Sun Belt | 8 | 4 | 5.801 | 5.589 | -1.801 | -1.589 |
| 104 |  East Carolina |
AAC | 8 | 4 | 5.791 | 5.679 | -1.791 | -1.679 |
| 105 |  Rutgers |
Big 10 | 8 | 2 | 3.750 | 3.721 | -1.750 | -1.721 |
| 106 |  Maryland |
Big 10 | 8 | 2 | 3.623 | 3.732 | -1.623 | -1.732 |
| 107 |  Delaware |
CUSA | 8 | 4 | 5.982 | 5.859 | -1.982 | -1.859 |
| 108 |  Ball State |
MAC | 8 | 3 | 5.253 | 5.069 | -2.253 | -2.069 |
| 109 |  Georgia State |
Sun Belt | 8 | 4 | 6.377 | 6.116 | -2.377 | -2.116 |
| 110 |  Middle Tennessee |
CUSA | 8 | 4 | 6.422 | 6.188 | -2.422 | -2.188 |
| 111 |  Central Michigan |
MAC | 8 | 3 | 5.162 | 5.213 | -2.162 | -2.213 |
| 112 |  Connecticut |
FBS Independent | 8 | 4 | 6.310 | 6.216 | -2.310 | -2.216 |
| 113 |  Navy |
AAC | 8 | 2 | 4.608 | 4.436 | -2.608 | -2.436 |
| 114 |  San Jose State |
MWC | 9 | 4 | 6.481 | 6.507 | -2.481 | -2.507 |
| 115 |  Eastern Michigan |
MAC | 9 | 4 | 6.713 | 6.515 | -2.713 | -2.515 |
| 116 |  Western Kentucky |
CUSA | 8 | 3 | 5.617 | 5.556 | -2.617 | -2.556 |
| 117 |  Nevada |
MWC | 8 | 3 | 5.563 | 5.598 | -2.563 | -2.598 |
| 118 |  Kent State |
MAC | 9 | 3 | 5.842 | 5.691 | -2.842 | -2.691 |
| 119 |  Coastal Carolina |
Sun Belt | 8 | 3 | 5.755 | 5.694 | -2.755 | -2.694 |
| 120 |  Southern Miss |
Sun Belt | 8 | 3 | 5.757 | 5.762 | -2.757 | -2.762 |
| 121 |  Missouri State |
CUSA | 8 | 3 | 5.962 | 5.784 | -2.962 | -2.784 |
| 122 |  FIU |
CUSA | 8 | 3 | 6.097 | 5.800 | -3.097 | -2.800 |
| 123 |  Massachusetts |
MAC | 8 | 4 | 6.993 | 6.828 | -2.993 | -2.828 |
| 124 |  New Mexico State |
CUSA | 8 | 3 | 6.140 | 6.123 | -3.140 | -3.123 |
| 125 |  UTEP |
MWC | 8 | 1 | 4.337 | 4.218 | -3.337 | -3.218 |
| 126 |  Washington State |
Pac-12 | 9 | 1 | 4.556 | 4.314 | -3.556 | -3.314 |
| 127 |  Hawaii |
MWC | 8 | 2 | 5.523 | 5.497 | -3.523 | -3.497 |
| 128 |  Rice |
AAC | 8 | 1 | 4.702 | 4.661 | -3.702 | -3.661 |
| 129 |  Temple |
AAC | 8 | 2 | 5.676 | 5.706 | -3.676 | -3.706 |
| 130 |  Kennesaw State |
CUSA | 8 | 2 | 5.680 | 5.713 | -3.680 | -3.713 |
| 131 |  Bowling Green |
MAC | 9 | 2 | 6.074 | 5.789 | -4.074 | -3.789 |
| 132 |  Charlotte |
AAC | 8 | 1 | 4.848 | 4.895 | -3.848 | -3.895 |
| 133 |  Old Dominion |
Sun Belt | 9 | 2 | 6.169 | 6.138 | -4.169 | -4.138 |
| 134 |  Akron |
MAC | 8 | 1 | 5.322 | 5.162 | -4.322 | -4.162 |
| 135 |  Louisiana-Monroe |
Sun Belt | 8 | 1 | 5.365 | 5.331 | -4.365 | -4.331 |
| 136 |  Northern Illinois |
MWC | 8 | 0 | 4.972 | 4.781 | -4.972 | -4.781 |
| 137 | Sam Houston State | CUSA | 8 | 1 | 6.052 | 5.920 | -5.052 | -4.920 |
| 138 | CSU-Sacramento | MAC | 9 | 2 | 7.268 | 7.265 | -5.268 | -5.265 |