Final Results

Average FBS power rating: 290.887. Estimated home-field advantage: 23.387 points (1619.422 power-rating units) from 185 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.090. Game-margin standard deviation: 20.972 points.

Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.

Rank School GP W Expected W (No HFA) Expected W (HFA) WAA (No HFA) WAA (HFA)
1 VIRGINIA 2 2.000 0.106 0.450 1.894 1.550
2 NORTH DAKOTA ST. 3 3.000 1.610 1.925 1.390 1.075
3 MARYLAND 2 2.000 0.875 0.952 1.125 1.048
4 DUKE 2 2.000 1.066 1.033 0.934 0.967
5 MISSISSIPPI ST. 2 2.000 1.074 1.037 0.926 0.963
6 SOUTH FLA. 2 2.000 1.084 1.040 0.916 0.960
7 TEXAS TECH 2 2.000 1.076 1.040 0.924 0.960
8 TULSA 2 2.000 1.071 1.040 0.929 0.960
9 NORTH CAROLINA 2 2.000 1.079 1.042 0.921 0.958
10 ALABAMA 2 2.000 1.087 1.044 0.913 0.956
11 APP STATE 2 2.000 1.075 1.044 0.925 0.956
12 PENN ST. 2 2.000 1.078 1.045 0.922 0.955
13 UCLA 2 2.000 1.088 1.045 0.912 0.955
14 UTSA 2 2.000 1.084 1.046 0.916 0.954
15 WAKE FOREST 2 2.000 1.090 1.046 0.910 0.954
16 SMU 2 2.000 1.094 1.047 0.906 0.953
17 MASSACHUSETTS 2 2.000 1.092 1.048 0.908 0.952
18 MISSOURI 2 2.000 1.089 1.048 0.911 0.952
19 TENNESSEE 2 2.000 1.084 1.050 0.916 0.950
20 COLORADO 2 2.000 1.089 1.051 0.911 0.949
21 MIAMI (FL) 2 2.000 1.086 1.053 0.914 0.947
22 GEORGIA ST. 2 2.000 1.084 1.053 0.916 0.947
23 SAN JOSE ST. 3 2.000 1.615 1.193 0.385 0.807
24 MEMPHIS 3 2.000 1.612 1.193 0.388 0.807
25 VIRGINIA TECH 2 2.000 0.652 1.329 1.348 0.671
26 TEXAS A&M 2 2.000 0.677 1.390 1.323 0.610
27 OLD DOMINION 2 1.000 0.203 0.453 0.797 0.547
28 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3 3.000 1.612 2.666 1.388 0.334
29 AUBURN 2 2.000 1.075 1.767 0.925 0.233
30 IOWA 2 2.000 1.075 1.767 0.925 0.233
31 MICHIGAN 2 2.000 1.078 1.768 0.922 0.232
32 NOTRE DAME 2 2.000 1.073 1.769 0.927 0.231
33 BYU 2 2.000 1.076 1.770 0.924 0.230
34 WEST VIRGINIA 2 2.000 1.086 1.771 0.914 0.229
35 INDIANA 2 2.000 1.079 1.772 0.921 0.228
36 TROY 2 2.000 1.070 1.772 0.930 0.228
37 TEXAS 2 2.000 1.069 1.772 0.931 0.228
38 NEBRASKA 2 2.000 1.076 1.772 0.924 0.228
39 COLORADO ST. 2 2.000 1.088 1.775 0.912 0.225
40 SOUTH CAROLINA 2 2.000 1.091 1.775 0.909 0.225
41 HOUSTON 2 2.000 1.074 1.776 0.926 0.224
42 UTAH 2 2.000 1.076 1.776 0.924 0.224
43 CINCINNATI 2 2.000 1.086 1.777 0.914 0.223
44 NEW MEXICO 2 2.000 1.085 1.777 0.915 0.223
45 MICHIGAN ST. 2 2.000 1.079 1.778 0.921 0.222
46 FLORIDA 2 2.000 1.073 1.778 0.927 0.222
47 PITTSBURGH 2 2.000 1.081 1.778 0.919 0.222
48 LSU 2 2.000 1.074 1.779 0.926 0.221
49 VANDERBILT 2 2.000 1.082 1.780 0.918 0.220
50 JAMES MADISON 2 2.000 1.094 1.781 0.906 0.219
51 WASHINGTON 2 2.000 1.095 1.782 0.905 0.218
52 KANSAS ST. 2 2.000 1.081 1.782 0.919 0.218
53 GEORGIA 2 2.000 1.083 1.782 0.917 0.218
54 OLE MISS 2 2.000 1.094 1.787 0.906 0.213
55 NC STATE 2 1.000 0.541 0.887 0.459 0.113
56 NORTHWESTERN 1 1.000 0.543 0.895 0.457 0.105
57 ARIZONA ST. 2 1.000 0.673 0.902 0.327 0.098
58 MISSOURI ST. 2 1.000 0.683 0.904 0.317 0.096
59 FRESNO ST. 2 1.000 1.083 1.034 -0.083 -0.034
60 SOUTHERN MISS. 2 1.000 1.078 1.035 -0.078 -0.035
61 OKLAHOMA ST. 2 1.000 1.067 1.035 -0.067 -0.035
62 IOWA ST. 2 1.000 1.076 1.035 -0.076 -0.035
63 CLEMSON 2 1.000 1.077 1.035 -0.077 -0.035
64 OHIO 2 1.000 1.075 1.035 -0.075 -0.035
65 NORTH TEXAS 2 1.000 1.065 1.036 -0.065 -0.036
66 OREGON 2 1.000 1.074 1.037 -0.074 -0.037
67 OHIO ST. 2 1.000 1.071 1.037 -0.071 -0.037
68 LOUISIANA 2 1.000 1.076 1.038 -0.076 -0.038
69 UAB 2 1.000 1.069 1.038 -0.069 -0.038
70 CENTRAL MICH. 2 1.000 1.063 1.039 -0.063 -0.039
71 RICE 2 1.000 1.072 1.039 -0.072 -0.039
72 BAYLOR 2 1.000 1.069 1.039 -0.069 -0.039
73 WISCONSIN 2 1.000 1.072 1.040 -0.072 -0.040
74 ARIZONA 2 1.000 1.087 1.040 -0.087 -0.040
75 BOISE ST. 2 1.000 1.073 1.040 -0.073 -0.040
76 MARSHALL 2 1.000 1.080 1.041 -0.080 -0.041
77 ARKANSAS 2 1.000 1.076 1.041 -0.076 -0.041
78 OKLAHOMA 2 1.000 1.081 1.041 -0.081 -0.041
79 GA. SOUTHERN 2 1.000 1.080 1.041 -0.080 -0.041
80 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 1.000 1.073 1.041 -0.073 -0.041
81 DELAWARE 2 1.000 1.079 1.041 -0.079 -0.041
82 TULANE 2 1.000 1.062 1.042 -0.062 -0.042
83 LOUISVILLE 2 1.000 1.083 1.042 -0.083 -0.042
84 WESTERN MICH. 2 1.000 1.072 1.042 -0.072 -0.042
85 COASTAL CAROLINA 2 1.000 1.074 1.042 -0.074 -0.042
86 FLA. ATLANTIC 2 1.000 1.076 1.042 -0.076 -0.042
87 TOLEDO 2 1.000 1.085 1.042 -0.085 -0.042
88 SOUTH ALABAMA 2 1.000 1.070 1.042 -0.070 -0.042
89 MIAMI (OH) 2 1.000 1.076 1.043 -0.076 -0.043
90 AKRON 2 1.000 1.089 1.044 -0.089 -0.044
91 ARKANSAS ST. 2 1.000 1.088 1.044 -0.088 -0.044
92 CALIFORNIA 2 1.000 1.082 1.044 -0.082 -0.044
93 FIU 2 1.000 1.078 1.045 -0.078 -0.045
94 LOUISIANA TECH 2 1.000 1.084 1.045 -0.084 -0.045
95 UTEP 2 1.000 1.080 1.046 -0.080 -0.046
96 SAN DIEGO ST. 2 1.000 1.090 1.047 -0.090 -0.047
97 KENT ST. 2 1.000 1.082 1.047 -0.082 -0.047
98 BUFFALO 2 1.000 1.093 1.047 -0.093 -0.047
99 LIBERTY 2 1.000 1.085 1.047 -0.085 -0.047
100 NAVY 2 1.000 1.089 1.048 -0.089 -0.048
101 BALL ST. 2 1.000 1.082 1.048 -0.082 -0.048
102 MIDDLE TENN. 2 1.000 1.093 1.048 -0.093 -0.048
103 WYOMING 2 1.000 1.079 1.050 -0.079 -0.050
104 UCF 2 1.000 1.254 1.109 -0.254 -0.109
105 UNLV 3 1.000 1.620 1.191 -0.620 -0.191
106 NEW MEXICO ST. 3 1.000 1.630 1.200 -0.630 -0.200
107 JACKSONVILLE ST. 3 1.000 1.614 1.202 -0.614 -0.202
108 SACRAMENTO ST. 3 1.000 1.632 1.203 -0.632 -0.203
109 WESTERN KY. 2 0.000 1.067 0.306 -1.067 -0.306
110 ULM 2 0.000 1.067 0.306 -1.067 -0.306
111 WASHINGTON ST. 2 0.000 1.077 0.311 -1.077 -0.311
112 UCONN 2 1.000 0.874 1.634 0.126 -0.634
113 ILLINOIS 2 1.000 1.067 1.770 -0.067 -0.770
114 TCU 2 1.000 1.065 1.773 -0.065 -0.773
115 AIR FORCE 2 1.000 1.081 1.774 -0.081 -0.774
116 TEMPLE 2 1.000 1.074 1.774 -0.074 -0.774
117 STANFORD 2 1.000 1.076 1.775 -0.076 -0.775
118 KENNESAW ST. 2 1.000 1.088 1.776 -0.088 -0.776
119 FLORIDA ST. 2 1.000 1.086 1.777 -0.086 -0.777
120 NEVADA 2 1.000 1.075 1.777 -0.075 -0.777
121 ARMY WEST POINT 2 1.000 1.085 1.779 -0.085 -0.779
122 SYRACUSE 2 1.000 1.085 1.780 -0.085 -0.780
123 MINNESOTA 2 1.000 1.086 1.780 -0.086 -0.780
124 PURDUE 2 1.000 1.079 1.781 -0.079 -0.781
125 KANSAS 2 1.000 1.081 1.781 -0.081 -0.781
126 KENTUCKY 2 1.000 1.083 1.782 -0.083 -0.782
127 EASTERN MICH. 3 1.000 1.612 1.924 -0.612 -0.924
128 HAWAII 3 1.000 1.632 1.933 -0.632 -0.933
129 OREGON ST. 2 0.000 1.064 1.034 -1.064 -1.034
130 SAM HOUSTON 2 0.000 1.064 1.034 -1.064 -1.034
131 NIU 2 0.000 1.069 1.037 -1.069 -1.037
132 EAST CAROLINA 2 0.000 1.071 1.039 -1.071 -1.039
133 TEXAS ST. 2 0.000 1.081 1.040 -1.081 -1.040
134 BOWLING GREEN 2 0.000 1.079 1.041 -1.079 -1.041
135 UTAH ST. 2 0.000 1.088 1.043 -1.088 -1.043
136 RUTGERS 2 0.000 1.080 1.043 -1.080 -1.043
137 CHARLOTTE 2 0.000 1.087 1.047 -1.087 -1.047
138 GEORGIA TECH 2 0.000 1.072 1.777 -1.072 -1.777