Final Results
Average FBS power rating: 105.140. Estimated home-field advantage: 1.034 points (0.480 power-rating units) from 440 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.612. Game-margin standard deviation: 13.440 points.
Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.
| Rank | School | GP | W | Expected W (No HFA) | Expected W (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALABAMA | 13 | 13.000 | 1.822 | 1.815 | 11.178 | 11.185 |
| 2 | TEXAS A&M | 10 | 9.000 | 2.474 | 2.422 | 6.526 | 6.578 |
| 3 | GEORGIA | 10 | 8.000 | 1.858 | 1.825 | 6.142 | 6.175 |
| 4 | FLORIDA | 12 | 8.000 | 2.458 | 2.498 | 5.542 | 5.502 |
| 5 | BALL ST | 8 | 7.000 | 1.659 | 1.676 | 5.341 | 5.324 |
| 6 | OHIO STATE | 8 | 7.000 | 1.902 | 1.901 | 5.098 | 5.099 |
| 7 | IOWA ST | 12 | 9.000 | 4.008 | 4.061 | 4.992 | 4.939 |
| 8 | OKLAHOMA | 11 | 9.000 | 4.160 | 4.202 | 4.840 | 4.798 |
| 9 | CLEMSON | 12 | 10.000 | 5.317 | 5.343 | 4.683 | 4.657 |
| 10 | NORTHWESTERN | 9 | 7.000 | 2.747 | 2.760 | 4.253 | 4.240 |
| 11 | OKLAHOMA ST | 11 | 8.000 | 3.836 | 3.818 | 4.164 | 4.182 |
| 12 | AUBURN | 11 | 6.000 | 1.831 | 1.865 | 4.169 | 4.135 |
| 13 | NOTRE DAME | 12 | 10.000 | 5.942 | 5.953 | 4.058 | 4.047 |
| 14 | INDIANA | 8 | 6.000 | 2.516 | 2.485 | 3.484 | 3.515 |
| 15 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 12 | 11.000 | 7.617 | 7.631 | 3.383 | 3.369 |
| 16 | LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE | 11 | 10.000 | 6.822 | 6.768 | 3.178 | 3.232 |
| 17 | TEXAS | 10 | 7.000 | 3.709 | 3.782 | 3.291 | 3.218 |
| 18 | MIAMI FL | 11 | 8.000 | 4.882 | 4.910 | 3.118 | 3.090 |
| 19 | IOWA | 8 | 6.000 | 2.940 | 2.916 | 3.060 | 3.084 |
| 20 | BUFFALO | 7 | 6.000 | 3.060 | 3.049 | 2.940 | 2.951 |
| 21 | LSU | 10 | 5.000 | 2.123 | 2.100 | 2.877 | 2.900 |
| 22 | MISSISSIPPI | 10 | 5.000 | 2.232 | 2.236 | 2.768 | 2.764 |
| 23 | CINCINNATI | 10 | 9.000 | 6.181 | 6.247 | 2.819 | 2.753 |
| 24 | BRIGHAM YOUNG | 12 | 11.000 | 8.309 | 8.319 | 2.691 | 2.681 |
| 25 | MISSOURI | 10 | 5.000 | 2.356 | 2.353 | 2.644 | 2.647 |
| 26 | KENTUCKY | 11 | 5.000 | 2.588 | 2.609 | 2.412 | 2.391 |
| 27 | SAN JOSE ST | 8 | 7.000 | 4.780 | 4.834 | 2.220 | 2.166 |
| 28 | TCU | 10 | 6.000 | 3.911 | 3.935 | 2.089 | 2.065 |
| 29 | NORTH CAROLINA | 12 | 8.000 | 5.949 | 5.947 | 2.051 | 2.053 |
| 30 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 4.000 | 1.923 | 1.949 | 2.077 | 2.051 |
| 31 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 12 | 8.000 | 5.994 | 6.057 | 2.006 | 1.943 |
| 32 | TOLEDO | 6 | 4.000 | 2.163 | 2.136 | 1.837 | 1.864 |
| 33 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 11 | 4.000 | 2.201 | 2.197 | 1.799 | 1.803 |
| 34 | WISCONSIN | 7 | 4.000 | 2.284 | 2.273 | 1.716 | 1.727 |
| 35 | ARKANSAS | 10 | 3.000 | 1.284 | 1.282 | 1.716 | 1.718 |
| 36 | LIBERTY | 11 | 10.000 | 8.558 | 8.470 | 1.442 | 1.530 |
| 37 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 6 | 3.000 | 1.510 | 1.493 | 1.490 | 1.507 |
| 38 | SOUTHERN CAL | 6 | 5.000 | 3.573 | 3.582 | 1.427 | 1.418 |
| 39 | WEST VIRGINIA | 10 | 6.000 | 4.533 | 4.588 | 1.467 | 1.412 |
| 40 | MIAMI OH | 3 | 2.000 | 0.826 | 0.804 | 1.174 | 1.196 |
| 41 | TENNESSEE | 10 | 3.000 | 1.937 | 1.900 | 1.063 | 1.100 |
| 42 | TULSA | 9 | 6.000 | 4.954 | 4.981 | 1.046 | 1.019 |
| 43 | PENN STATE | 9 | 4.000 | 2.995 | 3.013 | 1.005 | 0.987 |
| 44 | KENT ST | 4 | 3.000 | 2.019 | 2.062 | 0.981 | 0.938 |
| 45 | STANFORD | 6 | 4.000 | 3.202 | 3.068 | 0.798 | 0.932 |
| 46 | COLORADO | 6 | 4.000 | 3.068 | 3.086 | 0.932 | 0.914 |
| 47 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 2.000 | 1.259 | 1.293 | 0.741 | 0.707 |
| 48 | BOISE ST | 7 | 5.000 | 4.387 | 4.325 | 0.613 | 0.675 |
| 49 | APPALACHIAN ST | 12 | 9.000 | 8.392 | 8.429 | 0.608 | 0.571 |
| 50 | MARYLAND | 5 | 2.000 | 1.433 | 1.434 | 0.567 | 0.566 |
| 51 | NEBRASKA | 8 | 3.000 | 2.504 | 2.485 | 0.496 | 0.515 |
| 52 | OREGON | 7 | 4.000 | 3.567 | 3.519 | 0.433 | 0.481 |
| 53 | UTAH | 5 | 3.000 | 2.524 | 2.538 | 0.476 | 0.462 |
| 54 | PITTSBURGH | 11 | 6.000 | 5.535 | 5.539 | 0.465 | 0.461 |
| 55 | WASHINGTON | 4 | 3.000 | 2.452 | 2.563 | 0.548 | 0.437 |
| 56 | MICHIGAN ST | 7 | 2.000 | 1.616 | 1.597 | 0.384 | 0.403 |
| 57 | MINNESOTA | 7 | 3.000 | 2.659 | 2.611 | 0.341 | 0.389 |
| 58 | VIRGINIA TECH | 11 | 5.000 | 4.613 | 4.624 | 0.387 | 0.376 |
| 59 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 11 | 6.000 | 5.630 | 5.667 | 0.370 | 0.333 |
| 60 | NEVADA | 9 | 7.000 | 6.681 | 6.730 | 0.319 | 0.270 |
| 61 | KANSAS ST | 10 | 4.000 | 3.762 | 3.747 | 0.238 | 0.253 |
| 62 | VIRGINIA | 10 | 5.000 | 4.745 | 4.800 | 0.255 | 0.200 |
| 63 | ARMY | 12 | 9.000 | 8.834 | 8.828 | 0.166 | 0.172 |
| 64 | TEXAS TECH | 10 | 4.000 | 3.863 | 3.889 | 0.137 | 0.111 |
| 65 | OHIO U. | 3 | 2.000 | 1.889 | 1.905 | 0.111 | 0.095 |
| 66 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 10 | 2.000 | 1.969 | 1.949 | 0.031 | 0.051 |
| 67 | ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM | 9 | 6.000 | 6.012 | 5.966 | -0.012 | 0.034 |
| 68 | MICHIGAN | 6 | 2.000 | 2.016 | 2.026 | -0.016 | -0.026 |
| 69 | MEMPHIS | 11 | 8.000 | 8.013 | 8.055 | -0.013 | -0.055 |
| 70 | SMU | 10 | 7.000 | 7.146 | 7.106 | -0.146 | -0.106 |
| 71 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 10 | 6.000 | 6.165 | 6.151 | -0.165 | -0.151 |
| 72 | PURDUE | 6 | 2.000 | 2.104 | 2.152 | -0.104 | -0.152 |
| 73 | RUTGERS | 9 | 3.000 | 3.144 | 3.215 | -0.144 | -0.215 |
| 74 | WAKE FOREST | 9 | 4.000 | 4.207 | 4.218 | -0.207 | -0.218 |
| 75 | MARSHALL | 10 | 7.000 | 7.239 | 7.315 | -0.239 | -0.315 |
| 76 | ARIZONA ST | 4 | 2.000 | 2.439 | 2.403 | -0.439 | -0.403 |
| 77 | ILLINOIS | 8 | 2.000 | 2.551 | 2.520 | -0.551 | -0.520 |
| 78 | GEORGIA ST | 10 | 6.000 | 6.600 | 6.612 | -0.600 | -0.612 |
| 79 | AKRON | 6 | 1.000 | 1.805 | 1.769 | -0.805 | -0.769 |
| 80 | WASHINGTON ST | 4 | 1.000 | 1.884 | 1.817 | -0.884 | -0.817 |
| 81 | SAN DIEGO ST | 8 | 4.000 | 4.845 | 4.818 | -0.845 | -0.818 |
| 82 | UCLA | 7 | 3.000 | 3.810 | 3.825 | -0.810 | -0.825 |
| 83 | BAYLOR | 9 | 2.000 | 2.848 | 2.836 | -0.848 | -0.836 |
| 84 | AIR FORCE | 6 | 3.000 | 3.845 | 3.847 | -0.845 | -0.847 |
| 85 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 6 | 0.000 | 0.869 | 0.874 | -0.869 | -0.874 |
| 86 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 13 | 8.000 | 9.037 | 9.027 | -1.037 | -1.027 |
| 87 | HAWAI`I | 9 | 5.000 | 6.068 | 6.076 | -1.068 | -1.076 |
| 88 | CALIFORNIA | 4 | 1.000 | 2.139 | 2.129 | -1.139 | -1.129 |
| 89 | BOWLING GREEN | 5 | 0.000 | 1.490 | 1.450 | -1.490 | -1.450 |
| 90 | FLORIDA ST | 9 | 3.000 | 4.502 | 4.519 | -1.502 | -1.519 |
| 91 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 12 | 7.000 | 8.631 | 8.630 | -1.631 | -1.630 |
| 92 | LOUISIANA TECH | 10 | 5.000 | 6.622 | 6.636 | -1.622 | -1.636 |
| 93 | COLORADO ST | 4 | 1.000 | 2.742 | 2.658 | -1.742 | -1.658 |
| 94 | HOUSTON | 8 | 3.000 | 4.621 | 4.692 | -1.621 | -1.692 |
| 95 | LOUISVILLE | 11 | 4.000 | 5.733 | 5.757 | -1.733 | -1.757 |
| 96 | VANDERBILT | 9 | 0.000 | 1.758 | 1.782 | -1.758 | -1.782 |
| 97 | RICE | 5 | 2.000 | 3.805 | 3.786 | -1.805 | -1.786 |
| 98 | OREGON ST | 7 | 2.000 | 3.716 | 3.813 | -1.716 | -1.813 |
| 99 | FRESNO ST | 6 | 3.000 | 4.915 | 4.889 | -1.915 | -1.889 |
| 100 | GEORGIA TECH | 10 | 3.000 | 4.937 | 4.949 | -1.937 | -1.949 |
| 101 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 9 | 5.000 | 7.181 | 7.121 | -2.181 | -2.121 |
| 102 | TULANE | 12 | 6.000 | 8.285 | 8.224 | -2.285 | -2.224 |
| 103 | ARIZONA | 5 | 0.000 | 2.238 | 2.261 | -2.238 | -2.261 |
| 104 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4 | 0.000 | 2.386 | 2.272 | -2.386 | -2.272 |
| 105 | TROY | 11 | 5.000 | 7.442 | 7.377 | -2.442 | -2.377 |
| 106 | WYOMING | 6 | 2.000 | 4.422 | 4.412 | -2.422 | -2.412 |
| 107 | KANSAS | 9 | 0.000 | 2.569 | 2.501 | -2.569 | -2.501 |
| 108 | NEW MEXICO | 7 | 2.000 | 4.679 | 4.599 | -2.679 | -2.599 |
| 109 | EAST CAROLINA | 9 | 3.000 | 5.691 | 5.727 | -2.691 | -2.727 |
| 110 | UNC-CHARLOTTE | 6 | 2.000 | 4.828 | 4.756 | -2.828 | -2.756 |
| 111 | ARKANSAS ST | 11 | 4.000 | 7.009 | 6.913 | -3.009 | -2.913 |
| 112 | UTAH ST | 6 | 1.000 | 3.920 | 3.941 | -2.920 | -2.941 |
| 113 | NAVY | 10 | 3.000 | 6.108 | 6.074 | -3.108 | -3.074 |
| 114 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 11 | 4.000 | 7.243 | 7.261 | -3.243 | -3.261 |
| 115 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 12 | 5.000 | 8.395 | 8.332 | -3.395 | -3.332 |
| 116 | UTEP | 8 | 3.000 | 6.442 | 6.347 | -3.442 | -3.347 |
| 117 | DUKE | 11 | 2.000 | 5.549 | 5.507 | -3.549 | -3.507 |
| 118 | UNLV | 6 | 0.000 | 3.743 | 3.729 | -3.743 | -3.729 |
| 119 | SYRACUSE | 11 | 1.000 | 4.726 | 4.790 | -3.726 | -3.790 |
| 120 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST | 9 | 3.000 | 6.882 | 6.812 | -3.882 | -3.812 |
| 121 | FLORIDA INT’L | 5 | 0.000 | 3.921 | 3.915 | -3.921 | -3.915 |
| 122 | TEMPLE | 7 | 1.000 | 5.034 | 4.963 | -4.034 | -3.963 |
| 123 | NORTH TEXAS | 10 | 4.000 | 8.057 | 8.099 | -4.057 | -4.099 |
| 124 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 9 | 1.000 | 5.228 | 5.224 | -4.228 | -4.224 |
| 125 | SOUTHERN MISS | 10 | 3.000 | 7.813 | 7.880 | -4.813 | -4.880 |
| 126 | TEXAS ST-SAN MARCOS | 12 | 2.000 | 6.943 | 6.955 | -4.943 | -4.955 |
| 127 | LOUISIANA-MONROE | 10 | 0.000 | 6.363 | 6.332 | -6.363 | -6.332 |