Final Results
Average FBS power rating: 120.630. Estimated home-field advantage: 2.295 points (1.010 power-rating units) from 836 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.653. Game-margin standard deviation: 13.493 points.
Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.
| Rank | School | GP | W | Expected W (No HFA) | Expected W (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 15 | 15.000 | 5.071 | 5.106 | 9.929 | 9.894 |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 14 | 13.000 | 4.794 | 4.902 | 8.206 | 8.098 |
| 3 | CLEMSON | 15 | 14.000 | 6.959 | 7.065 | 7.041 | 6.935 |
| 4 | GEORGIA | 14 | 12.000 | 5.002 | 5.128 | 6.998 | 6.872 |
| 5 | OKLAHOMA | 14 | 12.000 | 5.199 | 5.195 | 6.801 | 6.805 |
| 6 | OREGON | 14 | 12.000 | 5.106 | 5.362 | 6.894 | 6.638 |
| 7 | PENN STATE | 13 | 11.000 | 5.290 | 5.407 | 5.710 | 5.593 |
| 8 | NOTRE DAME | 13 | 11.000 | 5.311 | 5.497 | 5.689 | 5.503 |
| 9 | MEMPHIS | 14 | 12.000 | 6.726 | 6.697 | 5.274 | 5.303 |
| 10 | UTAH | 14 | 11.000 | 5.882 | 5.905 | 5.118 | 5.095 |
| 11 | ALABAMA | 13 | 11.000 | 5.784 | 5.954 | 5.216 | 5.046 |
| 12 | BAYLOR | 14 | 11.000 | 5.940 | 5.992 | 5.060 | 5.008 |
| 13 | FLORIDA | 12 | 10.000 | 4.970 | 5.080 | 5.030 | 4.920 |
| 14 | WISCONSIN | 14 | 10.000 | 4.982 | 5.104 | 5.018 | 4.896 |
| 15 | MINNESOTA | 13 | 11.000 | 6.267 | 6.313 | 4.733 | 4.687 |
| 16 | AUBURN | 13 | 9.000 | 4.115 | 4.361 | 4.885 | 4.639 |
| 17 | IOWA | 13 | 10.000 | 5.326 | 5.376 | 4.674 | 4.624 |
| 18 | MICHIGAN | 13 | 9.000 | 4.711 | 4.720 | 4.289 | 4.280 |
| 19 | NAVY | 13 | 11.000 | 6.831 | 6.900 | 4.169 | 4.100 |
| 20 | CINCINNATI | 14 | 11.000 | 6.903 | 6.999 | 4.097 | 4.001 |
| 21 | BOISE ST | 14 | 12.000 | 8.064 | 8.090 | 3.936 | 3.910 |
| 22 | APPALACHIAN ST | 14 | 13.000 | 9.366 | 9.276 | 3.634 | 3.724 |
| 23 | SOUTHERN CAL | 13 | 8.000 | 4.339 | 4.376 | 3.661 | 3.624 |
| 24 | AIR FORCE | 13 | 11.000 | 7.597 | 7.666 | 3.403 | 3.334 |
| 25 | TEXAS | 13 | 8.000 | 4.580 | 4.674 | 3.420 | 3.326 |
| 26 | OKLAHOMA ST | 13 | 8.000 | 4.967 | 4.833 | 3.033 | 3.167 |
| 27 | SMU | 13 | 10.000 | 6.968 | 6.874 | 3.032 | 3.126 |
| 28 | WASHINGTON | 13 | 8.000 | 5.130 | 5.069 | 2.870 | 2.931 |
| 29 | KANSAS ST | 13 | 8.000 | 5.245 | 5.302 | 2.755 | 2.698 |
| 30 | TEXAS A&M | 13 | 8.000 | 5.144 | 5.374 | 2.856 | 2.626 |
| 31 | ARIZONA ST | 13 | 8.000 | 5.305 | 5.482 | 2.695 | 2.518 |
| 32 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 13 | 10.000 | 7.627 | 7.549 | 2.373 | 2.451 |
| 33 | CALIFORNIA | 13 | 8.000 | 5.527 | 5.586 | 2.473 | 2.414 |
| 34 | IOWA ST | 13 | 7.000 | 4.591 | 4.704 | 2.409 | 2.296 |
| 35 | TENNESSEE | 13 | 8.000 | 5.598 | 5.875 | 2.402 | 2.125 |
| 36 | LOUISVILLE | 13 | 8.000 | 5.997 | 5.903 | 2.003 | 2.097 |
| 37 | VIRGINIA | 14 | 9.000 | 6.934 | 6.944 | 2.066 | 2.056 |
| 38 | LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE | 14 | 11.000 | 9.143 | 9.173 | 1.857 | 1.827 |
| 39 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 14 | 11.000 | 9.158 | 9.290 | 1.842 | 1.710 |
| 40 | MICHIGAN ST | 13 | 7.000 | 5.210 | 5.383 | 1.790 | 1.617 |
| 41 | KENTUCKY | 13 | 8.000 | 6.354 | 6.470 | 1.646 | 1.530 |
| 42 | HAWAI`I | 15 | 10.000 | 8.302 | 8.515 | 1.698 | 1.485 |
| 43 | INDIANA | 13 | 8.000 | 6.712 | 6.581 | 1.288 | 1.419 |
| 44 | SAN DIEGO ST | 13 | 10.000 | 8.524 | 8.660 | 1.476 | 1.340 |
| 45 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 13 | 6.000 | 4.703 | 4.701 | 1.297 | 1.299 |
| 46 | PITTSBURGH | 13 | 8.000 | 7.075 | 7.130 | 0.925 | 0.870 |
| 47 | WAKE FOREST | 13 | 8.000 | 6.950 | 7.156 | 1.050 | 0.844 |
| 48 | NORTH CAROLINA | 13 | 7.000 | 6.432 | 6.244 | 0.568 | 0.756 |
| 49 | TEMPLE | 13 | 8.000 | 7.354 | 7.443 | 0.646 | 0.557 |
| 50 | COLORADO | 12 | 5.000 | 4.296 | 4.470 | 0.704 | 0.530 |
| 51 | WEST VIRGINIA | 12 | 5.000 | 4.438 | 4.489 | 0.562 | 0.511 |
| 52 | BRIGHAM YOUNG | 13 | 7.000 | 6.607 | 6.494 | 0.393 | 0.506 |
| 53 | OREGON ST | 12 | 5.000 | 4.568 | 4.501 | 0.432 | 0.499 |
| 54 | TCU | 12 | 5.000 | 4.572 | 4.540 | 0.428 | 0.460 |
| 55 | VIRGINIA TECH | 13 | 8.000 | 7.474 | 7.541 | 0.526 | 0.459 |
| 56 | WASHINGTON ST | 13 | 6.000 | 5.609 | 5.575 | 0.391 | 0.425 |
| 57 | TULANE | 13 | 7.000 | 6.719 | 6.633 | 0.281 | 0.367 |
| 58 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 12 | 4.000 | 3.638 | 3.765 | 0.362 | 0.235 |
| 59 | MISSOURI | 12 | 6.000 | 5.795 | 5.898 | 0.205 | 0.102 |
| 60 | UTAH ST | 13 | 7.000 | 6.982 | 6.948 | 0.018 | 0.052 |
| 61 | UCLA | 12 | 4.000 | 3.925 | 3.962 | 0.075 | 0.038 |
| 62 | FLORIDA ST | 13 | 6.000 | 5.879 | 5.972 | 0.121 | 0.028 |
| 63 | WYOMING | 13 | 8.000 | 8.094 | 8.064 | -0.094 | -0.064 |
| 64 | MIAMI OH | 14 | 8.000 | 8.447 | 8.130 | -0.447 | -0.130 |
| 65 | LOUISIANA TECH | 13 | 10.000 | 10.157 | 10.140 | -0.157 | -0.140 |
| 66 | MARSHALL | 13 | 8.000 | 8.139 | 8.143 | -0.139 | -0.143 |
| 67 | NEBRASKA | 12 | 5.000 | 5.254 | 5.197 | -0.254 | -0.197 |
| 68 | STANFORD | 12 | 4.000 | 4.163 | 4.219 | -0.163 | -0.219 |
| 69 | ILLINOIS | 13 | 6.000 | 6.345 | 6.329 | -0.345 | -0.329 |
| 70 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 13 | 9.000 | 9.221 | 9.369 | -0.221 | -0.369 |
| 71 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 13 | 6.000 | 6.380 | 6.390 | -0.380 | -0.390 |
| 72 | ARIZONA | 12 | 4.000 | 4.633 | 4.620 | -0.633 | -0.620 |
| 73 | ARKANSAS ST | 13 | 8.000 | 8.587 | 8.666 | -0.587 | -0.666 |
| 74 | TULSA | 12 | 4.000 | 4.697 | 4.700 | -0.697 | -0.700 |
| 75 | MIAMI FL | 12 | 6.000 | 6.995 | 6.900 | -0.995 | -0.900 |
| 76 | DUKE | 12 | 5.000 | 5.963 | 5.918 | -0.963 | -0.918 |
| 77 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 13 | 7.000 | 7.912 | 7.954 | -0.912 | -0.954 |
| 78 | MISSISSIPPI | 12 | 4.000 | 4.910 | 4.959 | -0.910 | -0.959 |
| 79 | TEXAS TECH | 12 | 4.000 | 4.989 | 4.965 | -0.989 | -0.965 |
| 80 | KENT ST | 13 | 7.000 | 8.018 | 8.049 | -1.018 | -1.049 |
| 81 | PURDUE | 12 | 4.000 | 4.865 | 5.078 | -0.865 | -1.078 |
| 82 | ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM | 14 | 9.000 | 10.208 | 10.078 | -1.208 | -1.078 |
| 83 | NEVADA | 13 | 7.000 | 8.038 | 8.109 | -1.038 | -1.109 |
| 84 | BUFFALO | 13 | 8.000 | 9.206 | 9.133 | -1.206 | -1.133 |
| 85 | HOUSTON | 12 | 4.000 | 5.301 | 5.313 | -1.301 | -1.313 |
| 86 | SOUTHERN MISS | 13 | 7.000 | 8.478 | 8.405 | -1.478 | -1.405 |
| 87 | GEORGIA ST | 13 | 7.000 | 8.700 | 8.549 | -1.700 | -1.549 |
| 88 | LIBERTY | 13 | 8.000 | 9.688 | 9.563 | -1.688 | -1.563 |
| 89 | SYRACUSE | 12 | 5.000 | 6.763 | 6.653 | -1.763 | -1.653 |
| 90 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 14 | 8.000 | 9.860 | 9.720 | -1.860 | -1.720 |
| 91 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 12 | 4.000 | 5.626 | 5.738 | -1.626 | -1.738 |
| 92 | NORTHWESTERN | 12 | 3.000 | 4.794 | 4.766 | -1.794 | -1.766 |
| 93 | KANSAS | 12 | 3.000 | 4.770 | 4.804 | -1.770 | -1.804 |
| 94 | LOUISIANA-MONROE | 12 | 5.000 | 6.909 | 6.808 | -1.909 | -1.808 |
| 95 | UNC-CHARLOTTE | 13 | 7.000 | 8.749 | 8.835 | -1.749 | -1.835 |
| 96 | MARYLAND | 12 | 3.000 | 4.910 | 4.909 | -1.910 | -1.909 |
| 97 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 13 | 7.000 | 9.198 | 9.042 | -2.198 | -2.042 |
| 98 | OHIO U. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.126 | 9.045 | -2.126 | -2.045 |
| 99 | VANDERBILT | 12 | 3.000 | 5.155 | 5.109 | -2.155 | -2.109 |
| 100 | SAN JOSÉ ST | 12 | 5.000 | 7.472 | 7.437 | -2.472 | -2.437 |
| 101 | TOLEDO | 12 | 6.000 | 8.495 | 8.454 | -2.495 | -2.454 |
| 102 | RUTGERS | 12 | 2.000 | 4.522 | 4.615 | -2.522 | -2.615 |
| 103 | FRESNO ST | 12 | 4.000 | 6.651 | 6.652 | -2.651 | -2.652 |
| 104 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 12 | 4.000 | 6.734 | 6.688 | -2.734 | -2.688 |
| 105 | GEORGIA TECH | 12 | 3.000 | 5.755 | 5.822 | -2.755 | -2.822 |
| 106 | ARMY | 13 | 5.000 | 8.111 | 7.938 | -3.111 | -2.938 |
| 107 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 12 | 5.000 | 8.223 | 8.002 | -3.223 | -3.002 |
| 108 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 13 | 6.000 | 9.052 | 9.022 | -3.052 | -3.022 |
| 109 | ARKANSAS | 12 | 2.000 | 4.864 | 5.032 | -2.864 | -3.032 |
| 110 | BALL ST | 12 | 5.000 | 8.106 | 8.035 | -3.106 | -3.035 |
| 111 | FLORIDA INT’L | 13 | 6.000 | 9.229 | 9.060 | -3.229 | -3.060 |
| 112 | TROY | 12 | 5.000 | 8.165 | 8.162 | -3.165 | -3.162 |
| 113 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 12 | 5.000 | 8.268 | 8.218 | -3.268 | -3.218 |
| 114 | COLORADO ST | 12 | 4.000 | 7.328 | 7.229 | -3.328 | -3.229 |
| 115 | EAST CAROLINA | 12 | 4.000 | 7.284 | 7.282 | -3.284 | -3.282 |
| 116 | UNLV | 12 | 4.000 | 7.474 | 7.414 | -3.474 | -3.414 |
| 117 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST | 12 | 4.000 | 7.552 | 7.508 | -3.552 | -3.508 |
| 118 | TEXAS ST-SAN MARCOS | 12 | 3.000 | 6.943 | 6.889 | -3.943 | -3.889 |
| 119 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 12 | 4.000 | 8.094 | 8.169 | -4.094 | -4.169 |
| 120 | NORTH TEXAS | 12 | 4.000 | 8.622 | 8.478 | -4.622 | -4.478 |
| 121 | CONNECTICUT | 12 | 2.000 | 6.536 | 6.513 | -4.536 | -4.513 |
| 122 | BOWLING GREEN | 12 | 3.000 | 7.649 | 7.554 | -4.649 | -4.554 |
| 123 | NEW MEXICO | 12 | 2.000 | 6.844 | 6.787 | -4.844 | -4.787 |
| 124 | RICE | 12 | 3.000 | 7.714 | 7.895 | -4.714 | -4.895 |
| 125 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 12 | 2.000 | 7.165 | 7.097 | -5.165 | -5.097 |
| 126 | NEW MEXICO ST | 12 | 2.000 | 7.752 | 7.590 | -5.752 | -5.590 |
| 127 | OLD DOMINION | 12 | 1.000 | 8.150 | 8.047 | -7.150 | -7.047 |
| 128 | MASSACHUSETTS | 12 | 1.000 | 9.450 | 9.298 | -8.450 | -8.298 |
| 129 | UTEP | 12 | 1.000 | 9.446 | 9.363 | -8.446 | -8.363 |
| 130 | AKRON | 12 | 0.000 | 8.853 | 8.897 | -8.853 | -8.897 |